almagest

If the Dodgers get involved and get him its gonna be an offseason of "you stupid fuckers waited too god damn long!" for the White Sox and Phillies.

FIP should help control for that. I agree it sucks making pitchers labor more with bad outfield play but at this point I'm more worried about finding actual good pitching instead of losing half a run to ERA from a bad RF.

They have to see what they have with their current players. Don't sign anyone who could block Palka/Delmonico/Cordell/Engel/whoever. It's likely none of those players amount to much but on the off-chance one does you would never see it signing a mediocre veteran who likely won't be much better. They need to lose now and lose until their minor leaguers start to produce. Once that happens you can look at filling holes with short-term acquisitions.

If the Sox don't pull a miracle here I hope the Padres swoop in again. Maybe that will help teams understand they need to move quickly next time.

Boy wouldn't it be nice to hear that from the White Sox?

I'm surprised this has been so quiet since Machado signed. Seemed like we'd see this get done quickly, and there hasn't really been anything other than "Sox are out, Phillies still in". Either Harper doesn't want to go to Philadelphia or no one is close to a reasonable offer yet.

I'm just not excited about any free agents after this year. Maybe Trout but that's not happening. This is a unique opportunity to help build a team with a sustained chance of success for many years, and any other free agent after this will be hole patching and not contributing to any chance of success beyond a small 2-3 year window.

Cherry picking reasons isn't going to look like anything but sour grapes at any point. We don't need to cherry pick to show why losing out on Machado is a disaster. Machado has played in basically every game for the last four years. His knee problems were almost five years ago now. Yeah its a potential flag but there's nothing we know of that would indicate any team was worried about his knees.

It's not "too heady". People understand the post. It's just wrong. First, other more illustrative numbers aside, Harper has struck out ~21% of the time in his career. Dunn ~29%. That's a huge difference. Next, the impact of a top-tier free agent in the prime of their career isn't JUST their performance. It's also allowing the White Sox to have some positional certainty and place less pressure on multiple prospects hitting at the same time. It also allows them to trade prospects now blocked by Harper or Machado for other pieces they need. Yeah, they could get hurt and cost 30+ million for nothing, but any Sox player could get hurt and be just as (if not more) damaging. You can't base a franchise-impacting personnel decision on "Well Machado could get hit by a bus tomorrow so let's not sign him". That's stupid.

I think the board insiders are presenting the information they know from people in the Sox organization. It's apparent to all of us that the team vastly underestimated the market for Machado and lost BADLY in this negotiation. I don't blame the board insiders for that, I blame the team. I also don't blame insiders for saying "hey we're still in for Harper" if that's what they hear. I'm sure we are. I'm almost positive they can't convert, though, because of how badly they blew the negotiation with Machado. As for the speculation the Sox would sign both - it's apparent they had unrealistic numbers to achieve this, if it's true. I honestly doubt it is, mainly because they would've been better off securing Machado for 10/300+ and bowing out on Harper instead of bowing out on Machado and almost starting over with Harper. You were close on Machado. You're not close on Harper (presumably). It just doesn't line up that they wanted both. Man, I would love to be proven wrong.

I have all of these things. I barely have any time for hobbies. I still care about the team but the White Sox royally pissed me off with this shit show and I'm here still following because of one last long shot on Harper.

30 year old free agents mean you’d better be competitive in the first or second year and you have a relatively small window with that player before they decline. I don’t think the Sox as constructed are competitive in 2020. They’re relying way too heavily on all their prospects hitting at the same time this year to be good enough to sign a few key free agents for 2020 to push them over the top. Machado buys you some leeway to not have to rely heavily on Moncada and Madrigal, and Harper allows you to trade from depth for other pieces. Also honestly even if they’re still good for a while Rendon and Arenado are pipe dreams. They’ve never done anything but overpay mediocre players.

I would really like to know how they think we should consider them as serious bidders when the projected contract for Machado was 10/300 or higher, and he signed for the low end of that projection and they still couldn't match.

In an ideal world yes. Problem is this is a once-in-a-generation free agent class so you make exceptions. They blew it instead and the options for the next few years are nowhere near as attractive.

So much for "really blowing him away" with their presentation.

I'm for sure out for a while. No games, nothing but highlights and an occasional check to see how players are doing. I'll probably lurk here when bored (as usual). Gonna follow some NPB, Brewers and Cardinals this year. I wish I didn't feel this way. I wish I still cared.

What is there to be proud of? They lost to a standard contract! No one wants to hear how you built a losing deal that completely misestimated what it would take to get it done. Unbelievable.

Yeah I think they're really out. I don't think this is posturing. I think recent events have shown they aren't smart enough to do that.

I would love for this to be true but we've heard the Sox won't go to 300 mil guaranteed and they haven't spoken to Harper in months. It might be that he told teams "I'm waiting for Machado" but at this point with this epic failure fresh in mind I seriously doubt it. If Harper doesn't want the Phillies he might take that short term deal for a year or two and try again when more big markets free up money.

No wonder we had to wait until fucking February. Why in the world would Machado accept an offer without an opt-out? Even a 5 year opt out means the signing team gets his best years! Unbelievable. I change my mind. This was not a competitive offer. Not even close.

Yeah. If we were out earlyish I’d be a little pissed but it’s what I expected. They put forth their absolute best effort and still lost and lost badly.

If they're also not going to 300 for Machado we have a chance for Harper still. Get it done White Sox. Also sounds like the Sox knew and could match but assumed their offer was "better" somehow. They completely failed to understand what Machado wanted. What a disaster of a negotiation.

I think this is true. Lozano took final bids, White Sox fell short. I don't necessarily fault them for that particular sequence of events, its just everything leading up to it. We should never have been in a situation where the Padres could jump in and make a fair offer and beat us.

It's honestly under fair value if you price WAR ~$9m and wouldn't cripple the franchise because they have few other commitments. This was their best opportunity to buy a superstar and they failed. They also brought in two guys who shouldn't be on this team and still failed. Now they look like idiots. I honestly don't know how you're able to spin this into a positive.

If it's not Bryce Harper then don't even bother mentioning it.