chw42

QUOTE (peanut33tillman @ Apr 9, 2011 -> 04:48 PM) They look like alike/I see the similarities. I see no similarities whatsoever.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Apr 9, 2011 -> 04:46 PM) Dude, I love the scoring in your league. lol. I might lose. But I'm getting close. But over the course of the year I should dominate with the team I have in place. Though I do need another pitcher. Wanna talk Gallardo trade? Thornton and Shields got me -50 last night. You're never out of the game I guess. I benched Thornton and got rid of Sale. It was like all the relievers I started tended to suck. I don't think I'm trading any of my pitchers, unless you can wow me with a good offer.

Humber's done if he gets through this inning.

Nice play by Konerko.

QUOTE (bobryansson @ Apr 9, 2011 -> 04:45 PM) Anybody up in Sox pen? I've not heard Hawk or Stone say so. Will Ohman...

QUOTE (joesaiditstrue @ Apr 9, 2011 -> 04:42 PM) If thornton blows another save today, oh man. you'd think ozzie would go to more of a committee if he does, right? It's the 6th inning and we're only up by 1. Way too early to even think about that.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 05:46 PM) Yet he's going to be the NBA MVP and has his team on the cusp of the 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. At some point you just have to accept the game you are watching and have faith in the man. Not saying I don't have faith, but he can still improve his game even more. Believe me, I want Rose to win MVP and I think he deserves it.

Did Phil Humber discover his curveball again? The ones he threw to Upton and Damon were filthy!

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 11:44 PM) Everyone can remember the success, because well, almost every closer relieved for at least a few innings before they closed. Even Mariano Rivera was set up for a year. The point is you dont know until you try, but when you try you cant just assume that because they were relievers they can close. But you said the data where they weren't closers is completely useless. Does that mean Tony Pena should have a try at being a closer tomorrow? We've never seen him close, so we'll never know. My argument is that the data where they weren't closers is not completely useless, it's still in fact, useful. The 9th inning isn't a whole new ball game. It's different, but it's not something where you can throw everything out the window.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 11:33 PM) But you dont have 4-5 years of data of Thornton as closer, he hasnt been a closer. The entire premise of my argument is that being a closer is different than being a reliever, thus using reliever statistics are worthless when talking about his ability to close. So you're saying there's absolutely zero correlation between a pitcher's ability in a non-closing situation vs. a pitcher's ability in a save situation? I understand that there is a difference between pitching in the 9th and pitching in any other inning as a reliever, but the difference cannot be THAT drastic. I don't have the time right now, but I'm pretty sure you can compare the performances of setup men turned closers and spin a pretty good argument that the correlation between their performance in a closer's role vs. their performance in a reliever's role is pretty high. Examples off the top of my head: Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, Brian Wilson, Joe Nathan, Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Marmol, Rafael Soriano, Brad Lidge, and I can't think of any other guys. I'm sure you can compile of list of the guys who have failed to convert, but I don't think the list is all that long. Plus, just how good were those guys as non-closers?

QUOTE (greg775 @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 11:31 PM) Well it's official. According to box score, All of thornton's runs were unearned. I'm pretty sure one of them was. Because Upton's single happened before the second error.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 11:23 PM) I disagree that there are more high leverage situations than being the pitcher to have to make the last 3 outs. Sure there is a lot of pressure with the bases loaded and no outs in the 8th. But if you fail, your team still at minimum has 2 chances to pick you up. Not to mention the manager is more likely to make a switch if you get a bad match up. As a closer you are the last line, it lives and dies with you. Its a different situation and there is a reason where there are numerous examples of guys who were great as closers and bad as relievers or vice versa. Furthermore, statistics are only good at telling you what has happened in the past. If you watched the game tonight, his fastball was pretty hittable and a guy that had no business beating Thornton hit a HR off him. That wasnt the defense, that was Thornton's best pitch being destroyed by a left handed hitter. Im a huge Thornton fan, but what I saw tonight was a concern, the past isnt going to change what happened tonight. And if the player isn't hurt or doesn't decrease his talent somehow, it's also a good indicator of what can happen in the present or future. Especially when you have 4-5 years of data to look off of. You are right about the velocity being off. Thornton's fastball averages around 96-96.5 in recent years. Today he was barely touching 95. If you ask me, it's just an off-day for him. He was averaging 96.1 in the two outings before this. The only possible worry from me about him is that he's somehow hurt or trying to overcompensate. The last thing you need is Thornton trying to overthrow the ball.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 11:21 PM) I hate the cliche, but everyone who's ever pitched/manaaged in the majors talks about how hard getting outs 25/26/27 are compared to every other out. I've heard of this, I've experienced it. Believe it or not, I have played baseball before...lol. But if you ask me, my heart pounds a lot more when the bases are loaded with two outs in the 8th with the tying run on third instead of starting the ninth with nobody on and a one run lead.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.ph...amp;prevDate=48 He threw 33 pitches today, 29 fastballs, 3 sliders, 1 change. 88% fastballs is right in-line with his career average. My train of thought is...if it worked for the past three years, why not keep doing it? The only problem with that today was Thornton's fastball was about a mile or two slower than what it usually is.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 11:12 PM) Here is a stat 8 That is the most amount of games that Thornton has saved in his entire career in a single season. You can say FIP and stats as much as you want, but most of those stats were not as a closer. And closer seems to be one of those positions where not everyone can handle it. Im not saying that Thornton is a failure at all, just he was far to predictable. I personally think he can be a great closer, I just think as a closer he needs to use his other pitches more often to keep the hitters off balance. Every single guy up there was just sitting fastball and there arent many successful pitchers in the history of the game who have gotten away with only throwing 1 pitch. Statistics be damned. I don't think you can just say hitters sit on one pitch in the 9th exclusively. They've been sitting on that one pitch for years and they haven't had much success with it. If you think it's a mental thing, that's fine. But Thornton's been in much higher leverage situations throughout his career where the game was even more so on the line than starting the 9th inning with no outs and nobody on. I don't think you can really call Thornton weak minded after all the situations he's been in where there was absolutely no room for error.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 11:06 PM) Ive seen Matt pitch as many times as anyone, I know that most nights he can get away with throwing just fastballs. But if you watched TONIGHT, his fastball wasnt really fooling anyone. Yes there were 2 errors, but the 3 run home run wasnt an error and that was what killed the Sox. Bad things are going to happen, but giving up 5 runs in an inning is a pretty horrifically bad thing. Im about the last person to overreact, but if you didnt watch the game tonight and feel a real sense of unease about how those fastballs were being picked up by the other teams hitters, I dont know what to say. You can get away with being a 1 pitch pitcher a lot more in the 7th or 8th inning. Its an entirely different game in the 9th, when the other team is willing to pinch hit much more often. There is a reason that not every player who has been a great reliever can close. Because of Matt's great previous performances Im willing to give him some time to adjust to the role, just in my opinion as closer, he will need to feature his other pitches more often to keep hitters honest. Depends. These are some successful closer's fastball usage in the past 3 seasons (not including this one). Feliz - 79% Papelbon - 77% Capps - 75% Broxton - 75% Jenks - 73% (half-way kidding on this one) Soria - 71% Bell - 71% Soriano - 69% And of course, Rivera uses the cutter 87% of the time. A lot of good closers depend on their fastballs. It is true that fastballs tend to be used more in the 7th and 8th innings, but the difference is not gigantic. BTW, Thornton throws his fastball 87% of the time. I'm sure the 8% difference between that and Feliz's fastball isn't drastic enough to say that closers can't just rely on one pitch to be successful.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 11:02 PM) I think people are going more by "looks," body language, their own assumptions (positive and negative) about Thornton as closer, with most having pre-conceived notions of his ability to do the job. Sometimes that ERA has been misleading, because he's given up a lot of runs over the course of his career that were inherited but not attributed to him. Do you have his inherited runners scored numbers with the Sox? I agree Ozzie and the team aren't panicking, but the fans and media definitely will be sounding the alarm bells. He's got to get right back out there tomorrow or Sunday and close another game or they'll have to shake things up for a week or two and see what happens. Minnesota and Detroit aren't off to great starts either, but the White Sox (before last year) are a traditionally front-running team that doesn't chase teams down in the 2nd half. One look at his FIP solves whatever issues you're talking about. Thornton's FIP in the 9th is 2.78, even lower than his ERA (this actually doesn't care what errors were made behind him). His FIP in save situations is 3.11. His career FIP is 3.5, so it's not like he's been absolutely terrible in these kind of situations.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 10:52 PM) As bad as the defense is, how long can a pitcher get away with throwing only fastballs? Even if he has no confidence in his second pitch in a three run game you have to throw your other stuff. Just so that people even believe that you are willing to throw it. That is my biggest concern, Pierre and Ramirez arent going to repeat those errors that often, but there was no reason for Matt shouldnt have at least tried to throw a few offspeed pitches early in the inning to mix it up. This is how he's always pitched. His fastball at 97-98 is one of the most effective pitches in the league. Sure, you can have him try and throw his slider and his change-up (which he did tonight), but the fastball is still his out pitch. And even if hitters know it's coming, a well placed Thornton fastball is one of the hardest pitches to hit in the league. As shown by this: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=2008&ind=0

QUOTE (T R U @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 10:51 PM) For Thornton, hes been awful.. Its hard not to judge Throntons performance in the closers role this early when we are all use to him coming in and being nails.. thats why its easier to judge this, clearly, something is off with him in this new role If you're talking about somebody who has very little credentials as a reliever (like John Axford), then maybe it is fair to panic, but you're talking about one of the best relievers in baseball in the past three seasons. To say he simply doesn't have enough to close a ball game when he has a career 2.93 ERA in save situations and a career 3.09 ERA in the 9th inning is once again, panicking. A sample size of 3 innings really doesn't tell you much about a reliever.

QUOTE (T R U @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 10:35 PM) No I don't need to relax, hes been awful everytime hes come out so far this season.. he was perfect where he was, we have two hard throwers with pretty good stuff in Sale and Santos.. I don't see any reason why Sale shouldn't have been the closer so Matt could have stayed in the role that he was dominant in.. I don't know how you can call him awful. Will Ohman's been awful. You don't judge a player by 3 appearances, especially when there were two errors made behind him in the only blowup he's had so far.

QUOTE (T R U @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 10:29 PM) lmao, he still gave up 5 hits anyways Yes, the errors were unfortunate.. but Thornton has been terrible as the closer thus far, there is no possible defense for that He gave up 4. Two of them were after the errors. He had a 95 MPH fastball today. All of you just need to relax for crying out loud.

Did we seriously commit two errors with one out? I don't know how you can blame this on Thornton when that happens.

What the hell happened?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 05:33 PM) There's a connection there though. When he's missing 3's for a couple games in a row, the defenders take a step back from him and make it harder for him to get to the hoop, or at least make it so that he doesn't get as clean of a shot if he gets there. He has to figure out a way to balance his 3 point shooting out a bit more. When he was more balanced early in the season, he was hitting them at almost 40%. I know it becomes more predictable that way, but his shooting has been incredibly inconsistent this season.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Apr 8, 2011 -> 05:24 PM) Case in point, Joe (Zoom) said to me earlier today that Rose needs to stop taking so many 3's, based on his percentage. I then gave him s*** for not watching games because Derrick Rose's added "threat" from 3 point range has allowed his game to go through the stratosphere. He of course argued this, like most statheads who hate on D-Rose, because, well, he hasn't watched every game this year like myself and many other Bulls fans. He shouldn't be shooting so many. There's shooting to make a point and establish the shot and then there's shooting too many and missing 66% of them, which is what Rose is doing. On nights where he attacks the rim first and shoots a modest amount of 3s, he is at his best. His poor shooting nights are the ones where he misses almost all his 3s and doesn't drive to the hoop enough. You don't technically have to watch the game to figure any of this out.