Everything posted by chw42
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2020 Election Thoughts
The incompetence is too funny.
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2020 Election Thoughts
Finally! Biden needs to run up the score and make this a landslide. It's much harder for Republicans to argue fraud when you have to do it in 4-5 states and you lose the electoral college by 80 votes. As ridiculous as that all sounds, I'm afraid this is how politics are under Trump. Also, how Biden's presidency will turn out hinges on the 2 special elections in Georgia.
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2020 Election Thoughts
Election night was terrible for Biden. I knew that mail-in votes would bring him closer in PA, MI, and WI, but some of those were big leads, especially PA.
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2020 Election Thoughts
It's crazy how one guy basically decided the primary. As a Bernie supporter, I was pretty salty. Without that huge win in SC (Bernie was polling within 10 points before Clyburn's endorsement and he lost by 50 points), Biden doesn't get the moderates to consolidate behind him before Super Tuesday.
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2020 Election Thoughts
You'd think so, but Trump is outperforming the 2018 midterm results by quite a bit. It could be because he's Trump and some groups of people just like him. I think COVID changed the minds of a lot of left leaning independents, but not a lot of right leaning ones. But we know that COVID absolutely riled up his base. You can argue that COVID also riled up the democrats as well. It could have very well been a wash in the end with a slight advantage to Biden. Exit polling showed that people thought the economy was the biggest factor for them 33%. Only 20% said COVID.
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2020 Election Thoughts
Around 25K votes left to count. Biden needs 57% of those.
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2020 Election Thoughts
He's saying that states with GOP governors are committing fraud.
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2020 Election Thoughts
I'm talking about this from a believability standpoint here. Which one is easier to believe? 1. Thousands of poll workers across multiple states conspire to consistently fake millions of Joe Biden votes to make Trump lose 2. Russians want Trump to win so they help him by hacking the DNC and spread misinformation on social media. I mean there's actual videos of Trump telling Russia to hack Clinton and parts of his campaign team met with the Russians in Trump tower. Muller wasn't able to prove conspiracy, but if you connect the dots, it's clear that Trump's team wanted to worked with Russia in some capacity.
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2020 Election Thoughts
Calling votes that were cast legitimately fraudulent is a far worse conspiracy theory than Russians hacking the election.
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2020 Election Thoughts
It's now 15k with about 60k outstanding if I did the math right.
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2020 Election Thoughts
This is key. It all depends on the type of vote. Also don't assume that mail in voting in AZ will have similar margins to what we've seen in the Midwest.
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2020 Election Thoughts
Kelly's up more because there aren't third parties for the senate race. Although I think he is getting more votes than Biden.
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2020 Election Thoughts
This new Arizona data gives Trump some life. 80k from Maricopa that went 58-42 to Trump.
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2020 Election Thoughts
Needs a little more, closer to 70% than 67%.
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2020 Election Thoughts
Now they're saying they won't.
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2020 Election Thoughts
It doesn't matter who concedes. It makes it easier if one side does when it's clear they can't win, but the states will verify the elections later this month and then the electoral college will vote on who's president in December. That's the actual election.
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2020 Election Thoughts
They also couldn't win in GA and NC. Those were races where they were favored in the polling.
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2020 Election Thoughts
Almost as bad as spending a billion to win American Samoa.
- 2020 Election Thoughts
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2020 Election Thoughts
Record turnout will do that.
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2020 Election Thoughts
Scott Walker of all people said that a recount most likely will not move the needle. You can flip maybe a few hundred, but 20k to flip is far too much.
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2020 Election Thoughts
AP is still standing by its call.
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2020 Election Thoughts
Where did you get the GA number from? I'm not seeing it from any of the news outlets.
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2020 Election Thoughts
This is exactly right. The states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan weren't allowed to count their mail-in ballots until election day. Why? Because their Republican legislatures made the rules and said they couldn't. If those states were able to count the absentee ballots early like Florida, you wouldn't have to wait this long to count the votes and there wouldn't be any controversy over the legitimacy of absentee ballots. This is Republicans creating a problem and then trying to cry fraud.
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2020 Election Thoughts
I still think the Republicans need Trump. The 2018 midterms weren't even close in states like PA and MI. But this time, even after all the shit that went against Trump in 2020, he outperformed the GOP in 2018. There must be a section of voters who aren't devout GOP voters but will definitely vote for Trump.