Chicago White Sox

Prediction: First Sox move tomorrow is Ryan Tepera on a 2/$10M deal.

They operate better in stealth mode.

Yeah, probably not a good idea to question the Padres’ spending and I actually think their owner has previously stated he’d pay the tax. Just based on their 2021 seasons, I would have expected more teams interested in Castellanos, but definitely could be wrong there as GMs don’t overreact to single seasons as much as fans do.

What are the contracts you’re expecting Kikuchi & Rodon to get?

Are they willing to go into the tax? Looks like they got about $20M to work with, so adding Conforto would push them up against the CBT threshold.

Apparently the Padres also showed interest in Conforto pre lockout.

"Burning arms out" is not the same thing as being concerned someone will max out their innings before being able to contribute in the playoffs. What do you think Kopech's inning limit will be next year? All five main starters averaged between five & six innings per start last year. I'd expect Kopech to be on the bottom end of that range but make ~28 starts if healthy (going to be very challenging skipping him too often this year). That right there is a 140 innings, which is a ~70 inning increase vs 2021. I'm really skeptical they'd push him much further than that, with a move to the bullpen a very possible outcome for him come October IMO.

That’s a massive innings increase and one that puts the 2023 season at risk.

Did you say the same thing about the Lance Lynn trade as well? And for the love of god, can we please stop using one year of performance as the end all be all for evaluating a player? Like look at Conforto’s numbers from 2017 to 2020 before saying this shit. He was hurt last year and it impacted his numbers. Context matters.

I don’t think he’ll average 6 innings per start, but I also think he’ll be forced to make more than 25 starts given the crazy schedule. 5 x 28 is 140 innings and that’s kind of what I’m expecting if he’s healthy. I really think Kopech gets moved to the bullpen come October and will be fully unleashed in 2023. Unfortunately Tony really mishandled Kopech last year and didn’t get him the innings he needed to go beyond 140.

It can be done but also requires depth that we are currently lacking. Tony makes it even more difficult to your point.

That’s why they likely trade for a more reasonable priced starter with limited control from a team like the A’s or Reds. Whether you agree with the philosophy, they literally just did this last year with Lynn and aren’t afraid to trade assets for a rental.

They ate $7.5M on Jeff Keppinger’s contract years ago. Feel like they’ve eaten some money more recently, but nothing obvious is coming to mind.

Are they going to have him pitch 4 innings per game then? Otherwise he’ll blow out 140 innings before October.

As far as I know yes.

You know the history of 100+ innings increases right? I wouldn’t bank on a person sample with an incredibly important arm.

26 man roster and you can stash two long relievers in there, even if one is significantly overpaid.

You guys have significantly more faith in Tony than I do. All it takes is one injury in the rotation and easing Kopech in will be near impossible, especially with less off days and more double headers. I’d rather not gamble my post season chances on that.

Because Kopech is going to cap out at 140 innings or so. Who do you expect to start game #4 in a playoff series?

I’m hoping, but we can’t bank on Kopech being able to be a starter come October, so by default it’s Keuchel at the moment.

I know this is hard to comprehend, but we can have two #3 caliber starters in the same rotation. And FWIW, I think Cease is more like a low end #2 starter who still has plenty of room for growth. He just slots as our #3 starter because we have two guys who are better.

But Keuchel makes $18M in the last year of his deal, so we’re not allowed to do anything but use him as our #4 starter next year despite rapidly declining stuff and horrible results last season. Let’s hope Hahn doesn’t accept mediocrity simply because he has a bad contract on his hands.

Who said Cease isn’t a #3? Are you assuming this because I want a 4th starter who actually is good?

I’m very confident the Sox acquire a SP, but I guess we’ll have to wait and see what happens.

Our two biggest needs are a left-handed power bat and a legit #3 starter. You don’t fuck with two question marks in your rotation when you’re trying to win a Championship.