Eminor3rd

This year, we can come back.

Sorry =\ Mods please change to 6:10. Sloppy

Behold: Tonight's probables, accompanied each by a triptych of said probable in a variety of zany situations. Jose "Quaetzalcoatl" Quintana :: 1-2, 3.56 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 7.33 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 vs. Wade Miley :: 2-3, 5.14 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 7.35 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 OVER/UNDER -- White Sox homeruns tonight: 2.5 Let's keep it going. Lineups:

LOL they called that an error on Rios. Ok, this is a BS no-hitter

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 9, 2014 -> 08:50 PM) Let me know it's the 9th in that one Yeah I just switched over. 8th, two outs, full count to JBJ

QUOTE (BaconOnAStick @ May 9, 2014 -> 07:54 PM) Shoulda put money on the over. Yep

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ May 9, 2014 -> 03:49 PM) It's against forum rules to post pictures relating to Brandon McCarthy that aren't this one, and only this one, now and forever.... Indeed. Edited OP appropriately

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ May 9, 2014 -> 04:34 PM) I think you mean Pierce Johnson. Also, Vizcaino won't be a starter anytime soon, if ever. Oh yeah, Steven Pearce is the AAAA first baseman, right? lol whoops

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 9, 2014 -> 04:05 PM) Except they really have no pitching at all after Smarj gets dealt. They've got two solid mid guys in Edwin Jackson and Travis Wood, they've got CJ Edwards, Steven Pierce, and Arodys Vizcaino on the farm, a glut of OF prospects to trade, and you'd expect they'd be active in free agency if they felt they were on the verge. Again, it may not all work out, but they presumably plan for it to work out, and if it does, 2.5 from now is realistic. Also, generally speaking, I think there are very few teams with no realistic chance of being competitive 3 seasons from any given point. So if you disagree with that, we may just have different thresholds for "realistic chance."

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 9, 2014 -> 02:53 PM) That is an assload of "if's". Especially since their ace is probably getting dealt here in a month or two. Of course, all plans are made entirely of if's. I'm just saying as it stands today, if things go the way they hope, contention is definitely plausible in year six.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 9, 2014 -> 02:29 PM) I can't see anyway that the Cubs can do this in six years, considering this is year 4. They could totally be competitive in 2.5 more years. If Rizzo remains legit, Lake/Olt take steps forward this year, and they have a good few callups in September, they're right on track for 6 years, actually. May not be likely, but it's certainly realistically possible.

Kolek looks a lot like Gavin Floyd to me, both in physical appearance/shape and in his mechanics.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ May 9, 2014 -> 01:41 PM) The question asked was how long does Rienzo last? 5.5 or less? How does a pitcher go 5 1/2 innings? That is six in baseball terms You do an unachievable midpoint in over/under so there can't be an in-between option. If I picked 5 innings even, for example, and he pitched exactly 5 innings, it would be neither over OR under.

QUOTE (hi8is @ May 9, 2014 -> 11:38 AM) Crazy ass s*** that we're already nearly 1/4th of the way through the season. I was thinking the same

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 9, 2014 -> 10:20 AM) keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 3h UNLV RHP Erick Fedde won't pitch this weekend either due to a tender elbow. Good, we definitely won't reach for him then.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ May 9, 2014 -> 07:55 AM) My picks to click are Goldschmidt and Gillaspie I think I'm feeling a Gillaspie night, too.

5/9/14 (2-0, 4.50) vs. (1-5, 4.67) O/U Innings Rienzo throws: 5.5 Lineups:

I'm still salty over not getting Salty at that price. I don't think anyone ever doubted that Ruiz would be good, just that we didn't want a stopgap solution.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 8, 2014 -> 04:04 PM) He is also very obviously cheerleading his own guy. People read way too much into stuff like this. Yeah but you hurt your own integrity when you say stupid stuff like that. I have to believe a guy is being honest with me if I'm going to respect his opinion. He could totally say "If it weren't for the nasty, otherwordly things that Tulo has been doing, Alexei would be playing better than any SS in the league right now" and still get the point across. All this of course is made worse than it needs by Hawk's habit to say the exact same sentence on air for about 9 consecutive days to work it out of his system.

QUOTE (beautox @ May 8, 2014 -> 03:06 PM) I disagree, Semien's K problem is about as good of a K problem as you can have; Its systemic from the fact that he doesn't swing enough, which to me is a hell of a lot easier to correct than someone who consistently expands their zone. Semien's swinging strike % is 9.5 and his zone contact % is 82.9 lastly his zone swing percentage 59.4%. TL:DR Marcus swings at strikes in the zone 60% while making contact on said strikes nearly 83%, Simply put he has a very good eye and needs to become more aggressive on strikes in the zone while maintaing his discipline at balls out of the zone to correct his problem. The good news is Semien is getting deep into counts the bad news (see: inexperienced) he is making the wrong decision late in counts that are leading to his prolific K rate. The Sox have the potential for a very good cheap infield and its possible if Davidson gets back on track at the minor league level they move him and leave Semien at 3B he has 20/25-20/25 (across three levels last year he hit 21HR and stole 26 bases) potential which would be well above average for that position. In Carlos Sanchez is see Everth Cabrera as a realistic comp or Erik Aybar if his power continues to develop, his glove has always been highly regarded at 2B and I think he could be average to slightly above at SS where his bat would play even better considering his low .ISO. Lastly Micah Johnson still has a bit of work to do against left handed pitching in terms of driving the ball, but its nice to dream on the idea that maybe he can develop into a Kenny Lofton type of player at the keystone. Great post

QUOTE (flavum @ May 8, 2014 -> 03:27 PM) And he's wrong. Yep, especially when you consider Tulo already has a +4.8 UZR somehow. Also, I mean .414./.511/.775. That's 235 wRC+. Miguel Cabrera's triple crown year was 166. Ain't NOBODY been better than Tulo so far this year, position-specific or not.

Law has ol' Casey Gillaspie all the way down at #72 I have a feeling we're going to end up with Jakson Reetz at #44

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 8, 2014 -> 10:17 AM) You are saying just because a guy is a good hitter in a 8-2 game, he will be equally as good given the sample size is adequate in a 4-3 game in the ninth inning with men on base. Yes. It's not something I believe or think should be the case, but it is. It's a fact that has been studied and proven. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 8, 2014 -> 10:17 AM) If players were computers or we were playing Strat-o-matic and rolling dice, I would agree, but there is a human element, and pressure affects people differently. In golf, some great golfers make 5 foot puts with a tournament on the line, others lip them out. In basketball some 80% free throw shooters make their free throws in the first half, but at the end with the game on the line, seem to miss more often. Same thing in baseball. Same thing in business. Same thing in relationships. Same thing in everything. I know what you're saying and I agree that it's real. It just turns out that at the highest level of baseball specifically, these guys are good enough mentally and physically to keep it "turned on" all or most of the time. I don't know if this is the case in basketball or golf or anything else -- I wouldn't be surprised either way. Guys have rough days, guys have lazy days, guys get hot, guys are distracted, guys have bad attitudes, guys dog it, guys pick up their teammates, etc., I grant this. All these things affect individual outcomes. But in the end, the differences at that level aren't enough to predict future behavior.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 8, 2014 -> 09:21 AM) Again, I disagree. Your argument when some data is pointed out not to show your position is correct is sample size. Your argument to me is given enough of a sample a good hitter will be a good clutch player. (I still disagree with that, but OK) The argument I have is that sample isn't going to be available. In order to be a good clutch player, you are going to have to do it with a small sample size. If you do not, you aren't a clutch player. Your clutch opportunities are limited. Right. And since the samples are necessarily limited, they don't accurately predict future performance, which means they don't accurately identify players who are "clutch enough" to be expected to perform better in clutch situations. And so small sample numbers of players in clutch situations are not useful identifiers of good clutch players. You can use clutch score, leverage index, raw WPA/LI, RISP, postseason, or whatever. The bottom line is that for any given player, his career batting line is a more accurate predictor of his situational performance than his past performance in the same situation. So there is no player, anywhere, who you can point to and accurately say, "this guy is probably going to do well in this situation because he has a history of doing well in this situation."

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 8, 2014 -> 09:09 AM) For what it's worth, Brett has played 43 post-season games and has a career OPS in those games of well over 1.000, compared to lower numbers for regular season play. Is that "clutch"? Of course, when you compare it to Tulowitzki or some of the numbers from the past 15 years, it's not so amazing...we all have selective memories to reinforce what we already believe to be true. Yes, true. But this is 160 at bats. He deserves credit for his performance in those 160 ABs, but they don't tell us that he'll continue to perform that way in the future.