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Eminor3rd

Forum Moderator
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Everything posted by Eminor3rd

  1. QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 10:08 AM) I understand BABIP but I don't get the idea that it should eventually normalize over a full season. His K% sucks, his BB% sucks, he isn't showing power. But why can't he keep getting cheap hits all season? All career Mr. Cheapy? It's possible that it won't normalize, it's just never happened that way in the history of baseball. So it is singularly unlikely. The reason we say it "should" normalize is that research shows that it always has. Not because we can't imagine a situation where it might act differently -- because we can. It's just that situation is unprecedented.
  2. QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 05:43 PM) If you weren't going to draft a guy because he missed a start or two due to an injury, you probably wouldn't be able to take anyone. I think it comes down to what drove the injury and is it long term or serious in nature. If it isn't, you shouldn't not draft him if you think he is the guy. Plus, for anyone pushing Rondon over Hoffman due to injury concerns, you should probably rethink that as there are other concerns over Rondon, including the impacts of the high pitch count. On the flipside, if he stays strong in his mechanics, it might not impact him and you also have to remember that college pitchers get the benefit of extra rest (vs. mlb starters). So every top tier starter has missed a couple starts due to an injury this season? I mean if he comes out and ruins everyone from now until the draft and says nothing hurts and you believe him, sure. But if there are any question marks at all, I'm looking elsewhere. Just IMO, I guess.
  3. QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 11:19 PM) I wonder if it is the highest ever BABIP in a month. I only looked at 40 months (counting March/April as one) of the (I think) 852 months of regular season MLB so far, so less than 5%, but .600 to .531 is such a big lead that I think there's a chance. Seems like Josh Hamilton had some high BABIP months during his MVP year.
  4. QUOTE (Melissa1334 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 06:45 AM) Avila said he kinda figured out how to get Abreu out in the series in Detroit. After the first game he had one hit in nine at bats with six strikeouts, interesting to see how he does. Although its never easy facing guys like Verlander and scherzer I can tell you how to get him out: Fastballs in on his hands all at bat. He hasn't shown a willingness to take a walk on those yet. He always swings eventually and jams himself. I think ever since he hit that homer in Colorado, advance scouts musta said something about how he can hurt you inside. But really, that's the best way to get him.
  5. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 08:06 AM) Coming into this season, I would have taken 14-13 under ideal conditions, let alone with some of the stuff we have seen already. Indeed
  6. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 06:21 PM) I have no problem with the older core, but they should have done something on the pitching side in case they were right about the offense. They could end up missing a golden opportunity. Right but they aren't old. They'll be there next year, and probably better. Rather than gamble on on Jimenez/Santana, give up a draft pick and sink tens of millions into what so far has amounted to a 50/50 shot at being good (Santana solid, Jimenez disaster), they see what they actually need for next year. Going into the year, there was reason to believe their SP prospects could have been ready. Hindsight is 20/20, but there was too much uncertainty to gamble the future.
  7. I watched Sgt. Baker hit four batters in a row in ST this year. Maybe it was three. Still. Sure, as long as it's
  8. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 04:45 PM) Any players gotten bigger numbers than that outside of arbitration, pre-free agency? Lincecum, right? $20m per year to avoid arb, I believe.
  9. QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 01:33 PM) Ask and thou shalt receive. Ahahahahahahahaha
  10. Gotta say no to Hoffman at this point. I don't want ANY injury flags for a guy who is valued appropriately at the slot. In other words, I think it can make sense to go for an injury guy if his talent represents something higher than the slot that you get him (i.e. Washington and Giolito), but when he's a #3 talent if healthy anyway, I think you have to go for another #3 talent.
  11. QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 01:08 PM) Hmm, that reads a lot different than "If the Sox kept Addison Reed, they would win 90-95 games"
  12. QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 10:28 AM) We signed him to hit, not to be a good baserunner. His batting war should be somewhat weighted because that's what he's here to do. Doesn't change the fact that he isn't a good baserunner. QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 10:28 AM) His batting war should be somewhat weighted because that's what he's here to do. What? Why would they make it inaccurate on purpose?
  13. QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 10:07 AM) That should tell you that WAR isn't the most reliable stat. No, that should tell you that people don't accurately factor defense/baserunning into their mental impressions of overall value. He's on pace for a 6.0 fWAR season, which is pretty incredible for a .330 OBP.
  14. If they are buyers, I wouldn't expect any big moves. If the team contends this year, it'll be because it's hot. Best case scenario is that we find some breakouts -- that's the goal of any rebuilding year. But there shouldn't be anyone that thinks our pitching staff right now (injured + bullpen) is that of a real contender. Hahn's ultimate goal this year SHOULD be to hover around .500. That'll mean that most of the guys panned out like they were supposed to. This gives him a foundation from which to add for next year. He dumps/DFAs/lets walk the pieces that didn't pan out and retains the ones that did, going into the offseason with a good idea of what his team needs to improve again. Trim the fat, develop the muscle. A couple iterations through and we've got a healthy franchise.
  15. You know who else isn't looking good? Ubaldo Jimenez: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...&position=P
  16. QUOTE (raBBit @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 08:25 AM) I whole heartedly agree with the bolded and have been critical of this foolish notion in several threads especially when pertaining to the rotation. I just believe there is a need to have a LH in your lineup somewhere from 3-6. To be clear, I wasn't saying that we should draft a LH hitter because our probable staples in the lineup are RH hitters (away from Eaton), rather that the system as a whole is lacking potential LH impact bats. I for one am not expecting much at all from the likes of Keon Barnum. Yeah, I'm just saying that when dealing with non-ML talent, either in the draft or in trades, you're opportunity is so limited by myriad factors (team x's farm system, quality of amateur draft pool, etc.) that you have no real choice but to just take talent over type. In free agency, you have a larger, more diverse pool of more known quantities from which you can select as many times as as you can afford and have the impact felt immediately. That's where you have the luxury to be very picky. As far as the value of a balanced L/R lineup, I totally agree. You just can't let that leak into farm talent acquisition, IMO.
  17. QUOTE (raBBit @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 08:48 AM) I don't know if that's fair. Lillian is obviously overzealous with his love affair of left-handedness (and now right-handedness with the current construction of the rotation) but we are bereft a LH option in the middle of the order. Those who figure to be in the middle of the order are obviously Abreu, Garcia, Viciedo, Davidson, and they are all righties. If the team is going for it next year it is inevitable that they bring in a LH option and I should throw out Victor Martinez for the 100th time as a guy I'd welcome. Since we are on the topic of handedness, and I don't want to go all Lillian, but I would think we should see a LH bat taken very early in the draft. Our top hitting prospects are all RH hitters with Davidson, Hawkins, Anderson, Thompson, etc. I think it's crazy to prioritize handedness over talent. If all else is equal, sure, take the lefty. But if you have a chance to get a better RH player, you do it every time no matter what your lineup looks like. In the draft, where guys are typically 3-6 years away from regular ML playing time, even moreso. Sign your lefty in free agency if you must, where you have much more control over the timing and opportunity.
  18. QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 08:29 AM) One key for me is going to be whether or not the White Sox can get a LH bat back. Either a really high level starting pitching prospect or someone who can fill in the LH bat need. Looking at how guys are hitting this year, the LH bat need is just going to be magnified with time. It'd take a whole lot for me to really look at a RH hitter with the way things are shaping up. Did Lillian hack your account?
  19. QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 08:23 AM) Obviously you would have to see the trade package. Ask yourself this: Does the trade give you a better chance to win a World Series? If the players you get in return could be part of your next championship team, you make the trade. If not then you probably keep him. It just depends. But I'd listen on any number of the Sox veterans to improve the young core. Look at the Pirates for example: You ask them for SS Alen Hanson and one of their top line starting pitching prospects like Kingham or Glasnow. I would end up taking 1 of those guys as a headliner for Ramirez and then some lower level type guys as well with Pittsburgh paying the salary. If I'm paying the salary, they are giving more. That's just one example of a team that could potentially be interested. Man. I've always liked Alexei, really. I think he's still underrated. But guys. If he stays relatively hot, and has his best offensive season at around 110 wRC+ or so, THEN we could be talking Hanson. There is just no way at all he's ever going to net us Glasnow, and he'd have to be a borderline MVP candidate to net us Kingham. I literally don't think anything he could realistically do from now until July would stop the Pirates from laughing off the phone if Glasnow was brought up. There are guys that like him better than Syndergaard. You guys can argue what "should" be the return, but the reality is that these prospects do NOT move unless teams are getting big time game changers these days. They are treated like ancient, precious gemstones. And the small market teams are even more stingy with them. In my opinion, he's still going to be worth more to this team than any other come July. Garcia/Sanchez haven't shown they're ready to take the keys -- I think you hope one of them steps up next year and you can move Alexei.
  20. Abreu's dingers gif: http://gfycat.com/MediumJealousIraniangroundjay
  21. Did Hawk just say that Greg Maddux and Tim Hudson "fed off each other when they played together in Atlanta?" Because they didn't play together in Atlanta.
  22. Excellent work, my friend.

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