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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 17, 2014 -> 04:13 PM) An important topic of discussion that I don't think was brought up here as much as it should have was regression. I briefly mentioned the concept of regression earlier in the thread, but ultimately what does it mean? I think people get confused about the term regression because they assume it means "getting worse." That's not the case at all. Players regress toward their expected means all the time - Adam Dunn is a perfect example of that over the past 2 years. In 2011, he had one of the worst seasons of all time but people didn't worry because they expected him to regress in 2012, and he did just that. His overall numbers were a little worse last year, but I still expect him to be around a .775-800 OPS overall, and perhaps better than that if he is used exclusively against right handed pitching. What always confused me when I was initially learning about sabermetrics was the concept of this. Jake Drake is a .320/.380/.520 hitter in a neutral playing field, which is an incredibly good hitter, better than a 150+ wRC+. However, after May 31st, Jake is hitting only .280/.340/.460, still good overall but maybe closer to a 120-130 wRC+ hitter, a good player but not nearly as good. The question remains: what should we expect from him the rest of the way, for him to work towards his overall career averages of .320/.380/.520 or to hit closer towards his career averages of .320/.380/.520, thus perhaps nearing him towards some kind of middle ground (say a final line of .300/.360/.490)? And simply, the answer is: both. The point of regression is that there is some central production patterns that you've put up over the course of your career that we should expect out of you. At the same time, because of this production pattern Drake has established, we should also expect that he work back towards that overall line, so seeing him hit .340/.400/.550 the rest of the way will not be surprising either. The only thing theory dictates that we should not expect is for him to hit worse. Now, given other circumstances and the volatility of human nature, it's also perfectly reasonable for him to underperform. That .280/.340/.460 may ultimately represent his final line for the season. Depending upon other factors - age, development of bad habits, bad luck on the field, or anything else you can think of - it may be possible that we have a new expected overall talent for Jake Drake, or it may be that we expect him to hit closer to his previous career averages of .320/.380/.520, or perhaps it's somewhere in between at this point in time. The only thing that regression suggests is getting worse over time is the overall line, because conventional wisdom dictates that talent grows lesser over time. I want to see what you have to add to it, but the ultimate reason I wanted to go over this was to show the importance of what I'd like to talk about next, and that's projection based systems, how they come up with their numbers, and why they are NOT meaningless. This is a good topic, because getting to the bottom of it underscores the effect of a strong or weak "start" to a season, which is something that we always end up discussing at some point in May. There are two components of this: 1. Circumstance. How does cold weather/death of a family member/fatigue/etc. modify the expected performance 2. Mathematical regression As far as I can tell, number 1 is a very real but very unmeasurable factor. We will just have to live with guessing it. The second point is, I think, what you're getting at. The fallacy of this concept is that people expect extremes to balance one another. So, the answer to your initial question about Jake Drake is the latter, that he'll end up somewhere in between. The simple way to look at it is this: If we know that a player's true talent is x, then the most likely output to expect at any given time is x. Jake is a true talent 125 wRC+ hitter. He starts cold though, and is only putting out 100 wRC+ throughout the first couple months. While it is definitely possible that he will swing back and hit at 150 wRC+ for a while to match his true talent, it is not the most likely outcome. The most likely outcome is that he regresses to his normal 125 wRC+ self and ends the season at 115 wRC+ or whatever. This is the value of stuff being "in the bank." You can apply the same principles to team wins. What is the true cost of a slow start? Team X is a true-talent 90 win team, and the look like they will need about 90 wins to get to the postseason. Team X starts slow though, going 10-20 over their first 30 games. From then on, it is reasonable to expect the 90 win team to regress to its true talent, which is a .555 winning percentage (90-72). Apply that percentage to the remaining 132 games, and you end up with an 83 win team instead. So the cost of that hole that Team X dug for themselves in April is that they now need to play 7 games BETTER than their true talent to reach their playoff goal of 90 wins. The fun in being a fan is, of course, hoping that your team gets hot and does something unlikely, defying the odds in your favor. This is always within the realm of possibility, but it's much less likely than it seems. Which is why we end up missing the playoffs more often than not, even when the team seems "better on paper" than it has played to a given point in the season.

I saw somewhere that Rodon got hammered. Anyone see the line?

QUOTE (rowand's rowdies @ Feb 16, 2014 -> 05:39 PM) Alexi and Quintana for Bogarts and something else? Not sure I would do that but would be an interesting move... You wouldn't do that from the White Sox perspective? Are you kidding? Bogaerts is going to be a MONSTER. He's a consensus top 1-2 prospect in baseball. That's not nearly enough for him. The only reason I wouldn't make that deal is because the only way it would be on the table is if Bogaerts either severely injured himself or was about to go to jail for 20 years.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Feb 17, 2014 -> 03:12 PM) Not only is this weird (I seriously don't get the context), but that would kill Hahn's future ability to make any deals. Because the Yankees released Q from the minors initially. I don't think TUC really wants Hahn to do this, though, lol.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 16, 2014 -> 05:27 PM) 2 minute clip of Steve Trout pitching to Miguel Dilone leading of the second game of a DH 8/18/80. Todd Cruz makes a nice play and Harry sells it. Harry even in his late prime was unmatched. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLs7UTvR65I Those are some funky arm mechanics

No one has any more questions, wite. Let's argue about something!

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Feb 17, 2014 -> 12:33 AM) He was referring to Marty. Let the Marty alter ego suspicion begin once again! #TheUltimateMarty2014 Hey wait a minute... where... where has GREG BEEN?! He's gone!

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 16, 2014 -> 05:30 PM) What about the other $35M missing from last years payroll? As much as I LOVE the movie "Brewster's Millions," that's not how money works in real life. If you save money today, you can spend it tomorrow.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Feb 15, 2014 -> 05:03 PM) Alexei Ramirez. He now weighs -10 pounds

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 15, 2014 -> 05:52 PM) Honestly, I would prefer the Sox sign Jimenez or Santana over this, and I've argued extensively against signing them. Yep, pretty much.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 15, 2014 -> 06:46 PM) So to lessen his value by playing Dunn at his expense would be harmful to the rebuild. Yeah I mean I don't think there's any question that someone needs to go. But the best move is to trade someone, not to DFA Dunn. So I think we have to wait until ST happens -- your argument makes some sense if the roster is exactly the same six weeks from now, but it doesn't make much sense now.

The most overlooked component of this discussion is that if the Sox were going to DFA Dunn, it would make absolutely NO sense not to wait and see how spring training shakes out. It's very possible that injuries either to the Sox roster or to other teams will change the situation dramatically, either opening things up for a trade or eliminating our excess depth. I think it's very possible, for example, that Hahn is already ready to cut Keppinger and eat his money if nothing changes during ST. But why do it now?No reason not to keep your options open until the 25-man roster goes into effect.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 15, 2014 -> 05:59 PM) Why did they choose to sign De Aza for $4M? Because he's worth more than that, is the simple answer. It's likely they thought they could trade him or someone else, but haven't been able to pull it off for some reason. They didn't sign him last week.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Feb 14, 2014 -> 09:08 PM) Does anyone know what the rebound rates are for the type of surgery Danks had? With TJ, it's supposed to be one rebound year after your time out, is this similar? Elbows are very fixable, usually. Shoulders tend to be major, career-ending problems.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 14, 2014 -> 10:09 PM) I still don't get the point of dealing assets for a 2B when we'll have two legit prospects in AAA and another in AA. Makes no sense whatsoever IMO. In this case, it'd be because (1) most of those prospects can play short, (2) there's a good chance those prospects will best, thus we could use a hedge, and (3) we need a 30 year-old league-average OF even less.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 14, 2014 -> 02:12 PM) Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien 1h White Sox position players aren't due til Thurs., but Adam Eaton has been here 5 days a week for last 3 weeks. Jose Abreu got here Feb 3. Eaton probably still lives there.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Feb 14, 2014 -> 03:19 PM) Love this part of the quote. "I'm working really hard to get my weight back." Sounds like you already have dude! I know what he meant, just funny he way he worded it. I doubt the Sox would be interested in Montero anyway but Ackley and Franklin are possibilities if Seattle were interested in ADA. I don't think they are. Maybe MAYBE Ackley.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 14, 2014 -> 11:13 AM) Hopslam is awesome stuff. Yes!

QUOTE (Leonard of Berwyn @ Feb 14, 2014 -> 10:40 AM) Trade suggestion: White Sox send John Danks and Alejandro DeAza to the Mariners for Nick Franklin, Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero. Lol come on man.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Feb 13, 2014 -> 05:54 PM) Also EMinor please sewnd me your girlfriends phone # I like turtles. I've actually rescued several of them including one last year which was hit by a car, nursed back to health, and released at a local pond. She & I would certainly share a common desire to care for aquatic reptiles by immersing them in beer. She lives in Cleveland. You don't want that.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 12, 2014 -> 05:42 PM) Both of these are on my bucket list. It's just so awesome to all of a sudden show up where it's 20-30 degrees warmer and get seats to baseball games ALL weekend that would normally be way out of your price range. I saw the Rockies play the Blue Jays last year from literally row two behind home plate and it cost like $30. Sox and Angels from row 5 for the same price. It's like a playground, you can just go see teams on a whim. You rent a car and you have access to like 7 stadiums. And Phoenix has great food and stuff too. It was maybe my favorite vacation, no joke. Also managed to catch the Grand Canyon AND took a hot air balloon ride, all in a week.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Feb 13, 2014 -> 05:45 PM) Fat Squirrel is definitely my favorite New Glarus beer, but I do really like their Coffee Stout and Uff-Da as well. I would put New Glarus's beers up against anybodies and I'm glad I live in Wisconsin and can get it without having to make a trip out of it. I like the lager, too. It's got 'woman' in the name, I think.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 13, 2014 -> 05:43 PM) When you drink as much as they do in some south side neighborhoods, I defy anyone over the age of 35 to go beer-for-beer, drinking non-Lite and still make it to work the next morning. The first time I've ever agreed 100% with Marty!

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 13, 2014 -> 05:43 PM) That is a colloquialism for a young professional and taken at it's literal definition, I assume this post was meant as a compliment, so I thank you dearly. I assume THIS post was another excuse to use 'colloquialism,' which I support and will continue to support in the coming election.