Eminor3rd

QUOTE (MAX @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 05:33 PM) Its not like dayan's defense is so poor that it would exclude him from being a part of that super sub rest type DH. Idk man.

Personally, and I know this probably isn't a popular opinion, I'd rather flip Viciedo for a similarly wild-cardy post-hype catching prospect and extend De Aza for something like 3/$15m to be our LF until a prospect pushes him out. I think having a perfectly average-ish LH veteran bat will add some stability to a lineup that may be in flux for the next couple years. Slot him in 7th and let Eaton and Avisail turn into guys toward the top of the order. I think ADA's bat will be perfectly serviceable in that role for the next few years, and I think he'll play an average to above-average LF. Even if you're higher on Viciedo than I am, no player is ever likely to reach his ceiling -- he'll probably end up a fairly one dimensional hitter that plays bad defense for a couple years and then turns into an average-ish DH. I'm not sure that is going to be extremely valuable for us in the future now that we're committed to Abreu and now that the entire league is increasingly enamored with using the DH as a super-sub rest position.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 03:40 PM) I think Jordan Danks has a chance to play himself into more playing time if he's good enough, so Jordan has a shot at raising his value while also being a cheap, serviceable 4th OF. OTOH DeAza is a pretty hard player to predict & he's just getting more expensive in arb. Even with a nice year, you're still looking at a LF who is getting closer to FA, so the opportunity for DeAza to increase his value that significantly I think is pretty small. On the whole though, DeAza is the type of player who fits in with the idea of rebuilding but not at the cost of totally unwatchable baseball. He shouldn't be dumped, and even though he's just a LF he could be a fit for any number of teams in either league around the deadline. If Hahn is getting low-balled then you keep DeAza and you take his AB from Dunn and/or Keppinger, not any of the young guys who could be a part of the new core. This is all pretty spot on, IMO. De Aza isn't likely going to increase his value with his play, but his value may be increased by the situation changing -- like if a team really needs a cheap, solid OF at the deadline.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 03:54 PM) It seems like it is very difficult to find historical stats on Japanese baseball period, other than the fact that hitters like Casey McGehee can look like Miguel Cabrera over there. Our own Shingo didn't exactly look like Mariano or Trevor Hoffman or Lee Smith or Dennis Eckersly did he? Your argument is what? That the league is AAA or something? Where's your stats statman. Go find some reference and I'll look at it. Your comparison to the WBC is completely irrelevant to the overall quality of the league. People don't need stats to disprove baseless claims, people need stats to support their otherwise baseless claims. The "experts" in the media commonly refer to the NPB as being roughly equivalent if slightly superior to AAA baseball. From my personal consumption (admittedly mostly from memory of podcasts), sabermetricians and talking heads agree on this point. If you want to claim a different opinion than status quo, you should be the one providing evidence.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 03:16 PM) In what world is De Aza not perfect, but Jordan Danks "pretty darn ideal"? I seem to recall Jordan having his own baserunning problems in the past, and he is not nearly the offensive player De Aza is. He is much better with the glove, I will give you that, but Danks is no kid. He is older than Beckham. I think he's implying that De Aza wouldn't preform as well in a part-time role, not that Jordan Danks is a better player overall.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 02:42 PM) They also look at Quintana http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/what-does-jose-quintana-do/ I was talking up Quintana to Eno so hard at the Winter Meetings a few weeks ago (I was there for the job fair) but he didn't want to buy in -- I think I may have gotten his gears going, haha. It was the night before Santiago got traded.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 11:32 AM) Yeah that's what I'm saying. The league is terrible. Our failed prospects here are better IMO. Lol, based on what?

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 11:08 AM) The main reason I'd trade De Aza is that he could bring something in value back. This is the only reason to trade De Aza. There was no reason at all to trade him before we got Eaton, IMO.

I think one of the things we're overlooking about the Sox rotation is that a lot of what makes it "valuable" and "enviable" is that it is young and cost-controlled, not necessarily that it's full of elite arms. So whether or not you consider it to be among the best in the league depends on which question you're asking. As far as raw 2014 performance goes, it isn't elite.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 09:52 AM) Then, theoretically, they should have put up a better ERA on the road. Home - 3.77 ERA Road - 4.23 ERA Now that homers have died down, I don't think it's a particularly great hitter's park. It certainly could be, but it's park factors were 100 and 101 last year. 2013 Park Factors: http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf...13&teamid=0 You should also factor in home-field advantage. I saw an interesting study that show a statistically significant effect for hitters having home field advantage, not sure if the same exists for pitchers.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Dec 29, 2013 -> 10:22 PM) It's just a little weird when people set out to dissect the Sox admittedly terrible offense last year and select Adam Dunn to criticize first. While Dunn is obviously a less than perfect hitter, he was the Sox most productive hitter last year. Have you already made posts every one of the rest of the hitters (aside from Rios)? And it's difficult to understand what is meant by "tough out" or how you're defining that. Is Alexei more of a tough out than Adam Dunn? Alexei makes outs more frequently than Dunn. Their entire careers as well as last year. That isn't some complicated advanced statistic that says that, it's on-base percentage. Is it ok if you make outs more often so long as they are "tough"? Wouldn't "ultimately makes outs less frequently" imply a "tough out"? Excellent post. I don't give a s*** how they get out, I just need them to NOT get out at least 33% of the time. You want to talk about a guy who gets himself out, try the freeswinger who has a career OBP of .315. Maybe if he wasn't so stubborn, he wouldn't keep swinging at s***ty pitches. That goes for almost everyone on our roster, unfortunately. Adam Dunn hasn't been great with us, but it isn't because he strikes out, it's because he has failed to get on base enough to make up for it -- which he previously did just fine. There's nothing wrong with the IDEA of Adam Dunn, there's been plenty wrong with the EXECUTION of Adam Dunn.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 08:18 PM) No, he has a nice arm. He's way back on the M's depth chart & should be available. for sure Dunn will bring back nothing much even if you eat his salary. DeAza probably gets you 1-2 prospects/projects. Noesi + something else for DeAza, Noesi straight up for Dunn and lots of cash, I do those moves for sure. Coop project. I threw in other pitching because I'd like to see some more arms come back but I don't know what they'd have available. SEA has some interesting bust type position players but they all look like either arb eligible or nearly arb eligible, meaning they've got a year basically to show something. That Franklin guy everyone here talks about, he seems like he'd bring back a much better player for Seattle than either Dunn or DeAza, and I assume that's about all we have to trade that they'd want, unless we want to talk Viciedo (I wouldn't). I see what you mean -- Dunn as negative value. I think I'd agree with this in a different year, but since the payroll isn't really an issue, I'd rather maximize the value of De Aza rather than worry about getting Dunn off the roster.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 01:28 PM) I see no reason why Hector Noesi of the Mariners shouldn't be available, nor any reason Hahn shouldn't look into him. The Mariners could use DeAza in the OF IMO & maybe Dunn some in the DH slot. DeAza + Dunn + tons of cash for Noesi and some other pitching maybe? I'd love to see the Sox pull some arms out of that org. Noesi would be a nice #5 and add righty balance with potential to far exceed that. Are you confusing Noesi with someone else?

QUOTE (bear_brian @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 01:41 PM) Before you make any more illiterate statements, here are the facts on Beckham last year: 1. Played the first 7 games of the season and was hitting .316 when he broke the hamate bone in his wrist. Was put on the DL, had surgery and did not play again until June 3rd. 2. From June 3rd through July 26th he raised his average to .320. On July 26th he aggravated the same wrist, but began to play through the pain. He was still hitting over .300 (.310) on August 15th, when he suffered a quad strain. 3. From that point on, his average began to drop, and he was absolutely awful in September. Maybe you see something different than real baseball fans, but Beckham was having a breakout season last year before he aggravated the wrist and suffered the quad strain. Ventura said Beckham was "hurting" most of the year. There are many things to dislike about the 2012 White Sox, but Gordon Beckham's efforts to continue playing while suffereing from two separate injuries should not be one of them. It's ironic you're calling someone "illiterate" and "not a real baseball fan" and then trying to make a believable argument by citing nothing but batting average over the course of less than 30 games, rofl.

Beckham is a bust. His upside is an average Major Leaguer at this point. I hope he gets there.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 23, 2013 -> 02:16 PM) Nice call Noice! Missed on Sebastian Valle though. I like this move -- like I mentioned in the original post, this makes losing Hector Santiago a lot easier to stomach.

Rallies. Huh, I forgot what those were. Man, those felt good.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 20, 2013 -> 11:47 AM) Jesus, you forget everything, what the hell is wrong with you? I can't remember

Well, so much for this idea. Phillies announced that we cleared waivers. So strange -- there's obviously more to claiming players than I am aware of.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 20, 2013 -> 11:01 AM) Do you consider Downs and Surkamp an upgrade over Heath and Morel? At least those two have a purpose within the system, which is more than you can say about Morel and Heath. Oh god, I forgot Morel is still on the 40 man

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Dec 20, 2013 -> 10:32 AM) Don't get all defensive. My point was that any stats (traditional or advanced) aren't always the best indicator of how a player or team will perform in the future. As I said, I understand why the stats are looked, and I admit my lesser knowledge of them. The 2014 White Sox are going to look very different compared to the 2013 Sox. If you compare the teams on paper before their respective seasons, most people (statniks and casual fans alike) would say the 2013 team would perform better. Now, I doubt there's anyone that is going to say that the 2014 Sox will perform worse than the 2013 Sox. There's something to be said for injecting youth into a team, and changes in venue, and other factors (personal - I'm looking at you Keppinger and Alexei) that affect player's and team's performance. And I'm on this board, like you, to talk about my favorite baseball team. I never said I didn't want to talk about what has happened and what will happen. Quite the opposite, actually, if you go back and read my original post. I was just pointing out that stats aren't always the best indicators. There are other factors, and one of the biggest factors for the 2014 Sox is the number of changes. Sorry

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 20, 2013 -> 10:29 AM) That would mean they would need to open up two roster spots when you include the Downs signing. Good point. Zero sum game.

Giants just DFA'd Eric Surkamp, which seems really strange: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/gian...assignment.html He's been beat up in the Majors, but he's only pitched 28 innings. Seems like a really nice controllable depth piece -- he's dominated the minors, after all. But he's a 26 yo lefty, and young lefties are something we have. I sort of think the more depth and competition, the merrier. Would be a nice way to replace Hector Santiago for next to nothing, no?

Standing in the way of your employees' opportunities to make money is not a good long-term strategy for a business. Holding him for another year is asking him to put his future career and earnings at risk. Poor taste, bad for morale.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Dec 20, 2013 -> 07:40 AM) Threads like this are always entertaining. They are filled with opinions and conjecture and arguments, and in the end we all know that how a team looks on paper doesn't always translate to actual performance. Yes, this is why we are on this board. QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Dec 20, 2013 -> 07:40 AM) And in my opinion, the advanced stats make it worse. In every thread that talks about the future or potential is riddled with acronyms like WAR, bWAR, UZR, FART, etc. To many fans, myself included, the advanced stats don't mean much. Don't get me wrong, I understand their usefulness. But, often enough, the advanced stats don't end up being good indicators of how a team/player will perform in the future. In the end, a post saying "they're just not good enough" may be as accurate as a post that looks like a college thesis. The advanced stats don't make anything worse. If you think advanced stats are bad for discussion because they can't predict the future with 100% accuracy, then you must also think that traditional stats are bad for discussion. Because they predict the future with even less accuracy. I don't get it. If you don't want to discuss what has happened with our team and what we think will happen with our team, what are you doing here on the board?