Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 03:29 PM) That's a reference. If it isn't meant for W-L maybe you should mention it when someone says "his war was 2.0, the Sox catchers was -1.0, the Sox wouldn't have won 63 games, they would have won 66. I am not the one misusing it. I never said it wasn't useful. In fact, just the opposite. It is being misused in a big way, and a few of the people who misuse it know better, but do it anyway to try to make a point. I agree with everything you just said -- I just don't see how the old "cancel the playoffs and give a WAR trophy" strawman is a useful illustration. But I see what you meant by it now.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 03:21 PM) Nothing to worry about. Salty is going to Miami. VERY interesting... You'd have to figure Miami is only interested if he was a bargain, thus making you wonder why we didn't get involved further.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 02:52 PM) I really think it's ridiculous that people say a guy has a 2.0 bWAR so if he replaced a 0.0 bWAR the team would have won 2 more games. If the number is so accurate, the final standings would perfectly reflect every team's collective bWARs, correct? I think they should just cancel the playoffs, forget about standings and just hand out a bWAR trophy at the end of the year. Sabermetrics is a big part of baseball, but to think these numbers are the end all is ridiculous. People like to mention xFIP for pitchers. Did you know Gavin Floyd had a better career xFIP than Mark Buehrle? Who would you rather have on the mound? You are CONSTANTLY deriding these metrics by using them in a context for which they are NOT meant to be used. These numbers are only inaccurate if you insist on asking them to do things they are not designed to do. They are NOT "the end all," whatever that even means, and absolutely nobody is claiming otherwise. The reason no one has EVER suggested that we "cancel the playoffs and give a WAR trophy" is because that's totally ridiculous. WAR exists in order to allow us to try to compare the sum of different players' contributions under a common frame of reference -- and that is EXACTLY how lasttrip just used it, and it lended an interesting insight to the discussion. It was never meant to be able to predict team W-L records or to imply that adding X player will add exactly Y wins to a team. It is a metric that STRIPS CONTEXT and it would therefore be ridiculous to expect it to hold up when context is introduced. It gives us a frame of reference, DA. That's it. Please stop pretending it's not useful just because it can be misapplied.

QUOTE (Baron @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 02:38 PM) He said nothing about this being part of the 3 way trade in the first place QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 02:43 PM) I never said he did? How about you check the thread title that holds the misinformation? Hey dudes, it says it on MLBTR -- I just figured you would all like to know. Does the question mark in the title not imply uncertainty?

Anyone seeing anything else on Twitter to confirm this? Nothing else showing up on MLBTR

As an aside, it appears the Saltalamacchia market is shrinking FAST

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 02:12 PM) It would be separate to the Hanigan deal. Does seem weird. That would make it a FOUR team deal. And no talks about the WS contributing anything so far. Strangely, it appears as though the Rays will be assuming almost all of Bell's salary, which is, needless to say, VERY not like the Rays. Would be interesting if the Rays are sending Lobaton to us in exchange for cash to pay Bell.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/rays...an-hanigan.html 2:01pm: Jose Lobaton could be going to the White Sox in the deal, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter) hears.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 02:02 PM) I'm not trolling, I'm very angry that a team with Bill James as an adviser (admitted the best sabes talent evaluator) recognizes the value of an AJP and people on this board who actually got a WS title in large part because of AJP think Salty is a better option. Geez. I get the feeling some think AJ is some old hack who can't play, when he WAS A MAJOR LOSS to our team last season. Greg, his talent has nothing to do with it at all. We all like AJ, he's a decent player -- but our team blows and we needmore than a stopgap solution at C. The Red Sox, on the other hand, JUST won the world series and needed to replace a lefty platoon catcher to compete again next year. The deal makes sense for them, not us -- and it has nothing to do with disagreeing on AJ having value.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 09:12 AM) By making sure that when we go into next offseason we have exactly the same problem as we have now, Phegley and Flowers who are too good for AAA but who haven't produced in long stints in the big leagues. Except Flowers is a year more expensive. Exactly! Let's sort this Phegley/Flowers issue out now instead of next year, where I'm hoping we'll be a lot closer to contention.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 08:24 AM) Weird is starting a thread about Lou Marson Yeah, that was weird. I was drunk. But seriously, I would rather have Marson than AJ. Because Marson is 27 and a helluva defender, apparently.

This is great news. No idea why you guys wanted to settle for a one year stopgap before the Winter Meetings even start. To me, that is the much "weirder" part of the fanbase.

Oh, sorry. I could have sworn he was a lefty. Oh well.

Guys, if he wasn't f***ed up, there's no way in hell they'd have non-tendered him to save a million freakin dollars.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Dec 2, 2013 -> 10:06 PM) Could be a defensive upgrade but don't know what to think outside of that. Could trade Flowers to the Mets. Sounds reasonable. He's a lefty, younger than I always think he is. I think the Mets will nab Arenciba though.

Discuss!

Tigers got destroyed. No idea what they're thinking -- maybe Fister is injured.

Awesome to see the Tigers get totally bent over on the Fister trade, no pun intended. Makes me feel a little better about the Fielder deal.

Also, someone pointed out on Twitter that JPA is the only player ever to hit 20 HR while somehow managing a sub-600 OPS. Lol

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 2, 2013 -> 05:01 PM) I just hate the idea that Arencibia represents. My other qualm is this - Arencibia has somewhere around 1000-1500 plate appearances on his record. He has had some success at the MLB level. But in his 3rd season as a starter, he took a gigantic step backwards. We are ready to give up on Flowers and Phegley after half a season starting by each, and Arencibia took that step back in the 3rd. If Beckham had put up his .800/.680/.680 or whatever, and then came back with a .600 bomb, there's no question how people feel about him, regardless of the replacements on hand. That's how people should also feel and consider Arencibia. On a minor league deal - great, grand, wonderful. That's not going to happen though. Yeah I pretty much agree with all of this. There's just too much of a C shortage for us to be able to get him at a low enough price to make it worth it. Probably a bad fit.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 2, 2013 -> 04:47 PM) I think the best hope for Arencibia is a guy like John Buck. I'm being overly harsh, but I also think guys like Flowers and Phegley can be like John Buck too. If you have 2 left shoes, should you try and acquire another left shoe or to try and find a right shoe? I don't think you're being overly harsh -- I think that's about right. I think the argument for JPA is something like this: I'm pretty sure the left shoe I have won't work out once I try it on the job, I may as well hedge my bets and bring another one to work to increase the chance that I can get one of them to do be what I need. Is that enough to justify the cost of acquiring him? It's possible, if the price is low enough. However, there's also the opportunity cost to consider -- a flyer on JPA for next to nothing might be better than doing nothing at all, but it wouldn't be better than almost every other effort to improve the C position.

The question is this: is adding JPA thee best allocation of whatever resources it requires? Because he won't be "free" -- he'll either cost some amount of talent in a trade or a few million bucks to sign. Lots of teams will take a flyer on him at or around league minimum, we'd have to offer more PT or money to lure him from a contender.

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Dec 2, 2013 -> 03:27 PM) If the Jays are going to non-tender JP no matter what, their asking price must be extremely low. Maybe it's worth it to trade for him for some low-level garbage prospect? As bad as he is/was he still looks like an upgrade over Flowers, although I'm not familiar enough with him to know anything about his defense. The only problem is if it would preclude them from continuing to try to upgrade the C position.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Dec 2, 2013 -> 03:11 PM) Anybody think Daniel Bard would be an interesting Coop project? Perhaps. He lost velocity, right? If he has a mechanical issue that could give him better command of his diminished stuff, he might be a good fit.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 2, 2013 -> 02:21 PM) Even coming down from his 2012 campaign, he's still a solid player. In the fangraphs world he's a regular 3+ WAR player every year. He's a guy who a reasonable contract could be 5/$80 or more if he's on the FA market. For a team looking to compete next year with a hole at 3b, he makes a ton of sense. I'm not saying he's not good -- just that the perception is that his price is "sky high," and given all the factors I mentioned combined with the fact that the Padres lose additional leverage since they are clearly unable to extend him, I think his ultimate price will be much more reasonable than everyone seems to be predicting right now.