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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 03:07 PM) I was thinking it was different in the past. Oh well, not the first time I've been wrong. But undoubtedly the last!

QUOTE (Knuckles @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 03:18 PM) Give him the Beckham treatment. Keep him around forever no matter what he does?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 01:59 PM) Javy Vazquez is my favorite pitcher to look at Yeah -- Matt Cain, Ricky Nolasco, Zack Greinke are fun ones, too.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 01:48 PM) When used to describe performance, I have no problem with it whatsoever. You just have to realize that is all it's doing - for the most part, it doesn't care how you got to that 2.75 ERA, just that you got there. fWAR says "HOLD UP YOU LUCKY f***" and does some correction for luck It's more accurate, I think, to describe it as attempting to strip influence of defense. Which, it is lucky to have a good defense, but it's more than just normalizing BABIP. Because FIP based metrics are more stable, they correlate better year to year, and are thus a better measure of a pitcher's true talent. If you're evaluating player value for the purposes of rosterbation, fWAR is the way to go. If you want to find out who contributed most on the field whether they earned it or not, use bWAR.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 01:40 PM) Or because it is easily accessible due to b-r. It's not any more or less accessible than FanGraphs. But don't get me wrong, I'm not accusing you of anything, I was just trying to defend Chili's blanket hatred of bWAR.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Dec 15, 2013 -> 12:49 AM) This is exactly who Frank Thomas was to the fans who followed him closest. I'm sure many of you can attest as well with similar stories. Frank was the reason I became a Sox fan. Being a born and raised Southern Californian, there really was no other reason for a 7 year old boy to latch onto the Chicago White Sox. All it took was one ESPN highlight of him mashing a Mike Mussina meatball out to the left field concourse. And so a childhood obsession began. Whenever the Sox were in town playing the Angels, my dad took work off... Bringing me with him for a series long indulgence of modern day Cracker Jack glory. My pops was a pretty smart guy - the first thing he taught me about the spectator side of Baseball was, "get to the park early." Real early. Four hours early. We would wait for players to arrive and get their signatures with a black felt tip Sharpie pen. It was a crap shoot I'd soon learn. Some players would quickly sign for a couple of people without breaking stride or taking their sun glasses off. Others would treat fans as if they where air and walk right by. The first time I saw Frank Thomas walk up with his six foot five frame holding two hundred and something pounds of muscle - I figured it would be a tough autograph to pull off. He always was dressed as a consummate professional. A full suit with a coat. Nice slacks and a fleece sweater. Not flashy or arrogant but rather, as a man who was there to do a job. Being that he was one of the most talented players on the planet - I expected him to just blow by all the fans. They swarmed up quickly... Clearly everyone had really been waiting for him. It was a shock seeing what happened: Frank walked up to the entrance door. Removed his glasses. Turned around and smiled. He said two words, "Line up!" and then resumed back to smiling. About fifty or a hundred people would stand in a single file line. We all fell into formation. The Big Hurt stood there and signed every autograph. He shook any outstretched hand. He posed for any picture requested. He treated everyone as if they where equals. The respect we had for him as a baseball player was returned to us tenfold as fans. The first time I saw this system - I figured we just came on the right day. Got lucky. It was a priceless moment. I've no clue who won or lost the actual game but I'll never forget that moment. After the stadium emptied, my dad turned to me and asked if I wanted to wait for the players again - this time catching them as they exited. To a seven year old, "sure!" is the only possible response. And so we waited. About two hours later, Frank appeared at the player door, yet again in his professional attire. Everyone saw him and lined up. The man signed autographs for at least another hour. Amazing. And so began a family tradition. For nearly the next decade - we always saw the Sox play in Anaheim. More often than not, Frank would sign for hours before or after a game... Sometimes both. Unbelievable. Consistent. Humble. Amazing. Powerful. One of a kind. Those are words that not only define his career on the field but they also are appropriate descriptions of his character. Two years ago, right before getting married and starting a family of my own - I had a chance to save up some cash and surprise my dad with a trip to Chicago. It was our first trip to The Homeland after all of those years on enemy grounds. I wrote to Brooks Boyer and told him a little about my Dad and his selfless dedication to me during all of those Sox away games. After so many years waiting around for autographs and seeing the Angles beat our Sox - my pops was finally treated to a surprise on a new level. Brooks instructed me to meet him at the field on our last game of a 7 game set. We arrived an hour before gates opened to the public. He greeted us - shook my dads hand... And walked us into the executive offices. He walked us down under the stadium, by the players locker rooms, and up through the umpire tunnel. We arrived behind home plate. The look on my Dads face was priceless. He had no clue any of this would happen. Standing behind home plate, on the dirt of US Cellular Field... My old man cracked a smile like Frank Thomas always showed and teared up a bit. Bad. Ass. Thanks Frank Thomas for introducing me to the White Sox. Thanks for absolutely crushing baseballs. For inspiring me to play the game. For showing me how to handle success with grace. For affording me the opportunity to know gratitude and show appreciation on a Big Hurt scale. Thanks for leading me to the best organization in all of sports. An organization where everyone from the top down treats each other like a family. Thanks for being a legend of mythic proportion that can now be passed down to a son of my own once he's born this March. He'll be three weeks old when the 2014 season opens this year. He'll be wrapped in his first Sox jersey - watching his first game with Daddy. Here's to hoping that by 2021 - when I go wait around with my boy at first first ball game - that some now unknown player will treat us with so much dignity. I doubt there will ever again be a player of such a Big Hurt magnitude. But hey, here's to hoping... Right. Frank Thomas is already in the Hall of Fame to me. Period. So this is what happens when hi8is doesn't just reply with "Poop."

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 08:38 AM) Just because you don't like a stat doesn't make it wrong. While I also like fWAR better than bWAR (especially regarding pitchers), the people who developed bWAR know a hell of a lot more about advanced statistics than some random guy on a message board and should not be discounted just because you don't like their methods. I think if you're going to use bWAR, especially for pitchers, you have to defend why it makes sense in context. Most of the time, when people use it, they do so because it's way higher or lower than the more commonly used fWAR number and so it fits their pre-determined opinions.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 12:57 PM) TRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADE

QUOTE (Tex @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 08:46 AM) It's one more piece of evidence. Not as valuable as others, meaningless when evaluating some pitchers as people have pointed out. But I wouldn't reject any facts. Especially when the wins do not flow with the rest of the stats. I think your premise is spot on, Tex, but the problem with W-L as a piece of evidence is that it tells you more about the team performance than the pitcher's performance. And if you spend time trying to analyze it with other numbers to try to strip defensive and opponent context, you quickly realize that the W-L number itself isn't adding anything to the conversation -- the other numbers are. It's more of an obstacle than anything. If every time you talk about W-L you immediately have to look at everything else to decide how 'accurate' an indicator of performance it is for a certain pitcher, by the time you contextualize the metric, you've done most of the work evaluating the pitcher -- you're really spending time evaluating the number rather than using the number as a tool. There's a ton of value in using all available information as evidence, but there's also plenty of bad information that translates to bad evidence. W-L is misleading, to some degree, almost every single time. It's bad information. It's easy to overlook, but remember that although a Pitcher Win is called the same thing as a Team Win, they are completely different metrics. Team Wins: "Number of times a team outscored it opponent over the course of a game. Ultimate decider of the champion" Pitcher Wins: "Number of times a specific starting pitcher, having pitched at least 5 innings in a particular game, left the game while his team was in the lead and able to ultimately win the game without subsequently giving up and regaining the lead later" To disdain the Pitcher Win is not to make an argument that other metrics are more important than Team Wins. Criticizing it feels like garbage because they are branded with the same word, but they are really entirely different things.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/phil...assignment.html He was just dropped for a reason -- he's had a couple disappointing seasons. But he's got a high pedigree and we have so little in the system that this is the most obvious fit of the offseason. When Rick Hahn acquires him soon, this will be the thread of discussion Have faith in the Hahn!

Dunn will probably have more trade value at the deadline than he does now

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 03:33 PM) I think W/L still has some value. More often than not, due to rotations, good pitchers face other good pitchers. Despite overall numbers, some pitchers have the propensity to give up big hits. Some pitchers rise to the occasion better than others. Some guys are just "winners." Not everything in the game is tangible. There's no doubt in my mind that momentum exists in sports and there really isn't a stat to explain it. Occasionally you'll see pitchers that win a lot of games without the best peripherals. Some of those guys just know what it takes to get a win. You can measure a pitcher's propensity to give up big hits much more accurately by looking at his performance in high leverage situations. The problem with "just knowing how to win" is that it doesn't correlate year to year. Guys that get a lot of Ws despite pitching badly do not continue to do so, implying that their success was incidental. This is not surprising considering that W-L includes offensive and defensive performance that cannot be controlled by the pitcher. There are absolutely intangible qualities to good baseball players that cannot be measured. Meaning W-L is among that stats that do not measure them.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 03:07 PM) So if there is a correlation between getting a win and pitching a good game, a lot of wins would indicate you pitched a lot of good games. There are also times guys give up 5 runs and pitch pretty well, and times when they give up 2 runs and don't pitch as well. EX. Wind blowing out a Wrigley, it's a bandbox, blowing in, it's tough to get it out of there. I believe it usually evens out, but occassionally it does not. I'll take a guy with 15 wins and a 5+ ERA. Generally that will be a #4 or #5 starter, and it shows you were probably over .500 in their starts. And it shows they probably went a decent length in the game resting the bullpen a bit.That's pretty good. Except when it's wrong about all those things. You can measure how well he pitched more accurately by using almost literally every other pitching statistic. Instead of settling for "probably went a decent length in the game resting the bullpen," for example, why not look at IP/GS and measure "definitely went a decent length in the game resting the bullpen." W-L is sometimes right about guys and it's just as frequently wrong. That would be fine if it was the best way we had to evaluate pitchers, but it isn't. Every single question you want answered by W-L can be answered better by another statistic.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 02:39 PM) Because there is a correlation between a pitcher having a good game and a win and a pitcher having a bad game and a loss. However, that only makes it a useful stat if there aren't already better stats to evaluate whether the pitcher had a set of good games or bad games. This. The problem with W-L is that it tells us nothing about a pitcher's performance that other stats don't tell us with more precision and accuracy. Its day has passed.

QUOTE (peppers312 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 10:43 AM) hello white sox fans! this is my first post on this forum and i just wanted to chime in on this thread. i've lurked on this board for a while now and it's great to see all these Sox fans talking about our team. there's a LOT of good information on here as well as some hilarious comments. but i want to talk about Rick Hahn and our White Sox. this is going to be TLDR, but here goes. people who think Siemien is MLB ready should pump the brakes on this kid. i think another season at the AAA level isn't going to kill him. as much as i want to see Beckham succeed, he's had 5 years to improve and all i've seen is a perennial .250 hitter with barely a .300 OBP. sure his defense is solid, but that's just not enough for someone who's already been given that amount of time at the MLB level. we did see some improvement at the beginning of last season, so i think the Sox give him one more year at 2B and see what he can do. if he turns the corner, obviously we keep him. if he struggles again, we move on with Siemien. i super pleased with what Hahn has done with this roster. he basically moved Peavy, Thornton, Santiago, and Reed for Garcia, Abreu, Eaton and Davidson. he was able to get younger players with high upside, potentially keeping us competitive this season and in the future, and he shed payroll. who knows what Danks is going to bring to the rotation this season. he'll be 2 years removed from surgery and if he can get back to his 2010 form, we'll have a VERY nice starting rotation. and Dunn coming off the books by the end of the year, if not moved in a trade before the deadline if the Sox are not contending, Hahn has positioned the Sox nicely moving forward. there's a lot to be excited about on the south side and i like what Ricky is doing. GO WHITE SOX! Welcome! At this point, it seems extremely unlikely that Semien will not start in AAA next year. Garcia is a MUCH better option as a bench piece, Konerko/Keppinger clog the rest of the bench, and there will be plenty of competition for the 3B slot in ST. Barring a trade of Ramirez/Beckham, there's really no way to squeeze him on. So hopefully we won't have to worry about where he should be anyway

QUOTE (balfanman @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 10:14 AM) Let me say that I'm impressed too and think the team is in better shape then they were 5 months ago. That being said, I don't believe that Hahn has exactly aquired 'Blue Chip" prospects either. Davidson, Eton, Garcia, Abreu, eyt. are all nice prospects, but I don't think any of them are top 50 are they? Please correct me if I'm wrong (I have no doubt that someone will), but it's not like the Sox now have a stable of "Top of the Line", "can't miss" youngsters. I realize that you would of had to of had top of the line players to start trading with, but just sayin. We also haven't really given up something that would warrant a "blue chipper." Also, Hahn appears to be targeting guys that are "rookies" more than they're "prospects." He clearly wants to get new talent on the ML field as soon as possible, and he's been able to do well there partially just because we have SO many holes to fill.

QUOTE (chisoxfan310 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 09:31 AM) What about Sanchez, Rienzo, and either one of Thompson and Mitchell for Grandal? Would you accept that deal?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 08:15 AM) That is where the assumption that a strike out is just like any other out, therefore they don't matter comes into play. If he has 50 less strikeouts, those other 50 ABs are either walks, HBP, or balls in play. Assuming they are all balls in play and he has a .300 bipba, that is 15 more hits, which is 30 more points on the batting average and OBP based on 500 AB. A strikeout is NOT like any other out. No, you just proved that a strikeout isn't like a ball in play. A ball in play isn't an out yet. A strikeout is just like another out except under circumstances when runners can move.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 06:52 AM) No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No.

FWIW, Keith Law and Dave Cameron both love this trade for us. Jason Parks does not.

QUOTE (winninguglyin83 @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 04:30 PM) so happy to know that Hahn and The Chairman were as discouraged by last season as the fan base. Hahn definitely is executing a plan. He knows what he wants -- and what he doesn't want. I always thought Williams was too impulsive with his deals and frequently gave up too much. Don't have the same feeling with Hahn. Better times ahead. I think Kenny definitely knew what he wanted. The difference, I think, is that Hahn looks like he's willing to walk away from a deal if he doesn't like how it's shaking out. KW always got his man, no matter what it cost.

QUOTE (Chet Kincaid @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 04:15 PM) I don't think it matters if the club isn't competitive. I think you have the freedom to give several tryouts to see what you have. Yeah, this will shake out over the course of the season. Jones gets first shot in ST, but I wouldn't be surprised if Lindstrom gets some reps too. If either falters, Webb is in the picture.

QUOTE (chisoxfan310 @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 04:17 PM) Just think....Sale Tanaka Quintana Johnson Danks Eaton Ramirez Dunn Abreu Garcia Viciedo Davidson Beckham (Catcher spot) That's a sleeper breakout team, if not a powerhouse, but most importantly, it's a core of players that will likely continue to improve and be effective for a many years. It's a no brainer to kick the tires, but it does seem unlikely they'll fit this in the budget. With the posting fee capped now, there's a very good chance this guy gets over $100m, and the Yankees are the most obvious fit.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 04:16 PM) Who the f*** is that guy? Borth Eaton would be the best name I've ever heard

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 04:14 PM) Diamondbacks blew 29 saves last year. Tied Houston for last. Getting Trumbo means Prado moves to 3rd and he's under control for 3 years. Davidson was expendable for a ML closer. It's not that he wanted a closer, it's that he constantly overpays. He treats his players like no one wants them.