Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:57 PM) Has anyone stopped to say "Hey, wow, for this to happen the brewers would have to be totally sick of the guy. My word I didn't think that was possible, could he really be that bad?" It's a valid point. I think that it may have to with how horribly bad and horribly small market the Brewers are, though. But you could be right.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:46 PM) Melky Cabrera could be a good example. Jose Canseco actually said he wouldn't have been a major leaguer without steroids. I don't think that is something you risk $100 million trying to find out. Ryan Braun is SO much better than Melky Cabrera EVER was. And please don't ever base an argument on Jose Canseco's insanity laced opinions. I think the "answer" to PEDs is that they probably affect different guys very differently. I understand your thought that Braun is too big a risk given his contract and think it is reasonable. I fall on the other side because guys that have peaks as high as Braun's tend to age much better and (my opinion) have got to have a high level of natural talent in order to turn out those numbers, roids or not.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:37 PM) I don't know how anyone could say he will remain a star level producer. For one thing, he is going to have to carry this weight around for the rest of his career, and another, he supposedly has been using PEDs since college, so chances are we have never seen what he can do clean. You may be right, but I think the bolded is way too strong of a statement. The fact is, we don't have much evidence at all of how much PEDs affect performance. And the fact remains that has produced at a HOF rate for the past 3-4 seasons. I certainly think it's reasonable to expect that he might drop off sharply, but I don't think that's any more likely than him having a fairly natural career path from here on out.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:27 PM) It's quite obvious you haven't look at ANY of Oswalt's recent numbers outside of LOLwins and ERA. This isn't 1960, we have advanced statistics and a better idea of how to evaluate a player. Feel free to modernize your thinking. It's strange because his advanced numbers make him look solid but his old-school numbers make him look like Randy Williams.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:21 PM) What is his contract going to look like when he is 35-38? He is signed for 8 more years. 7 if you buy him out. He will make $10 million next year, and if see the responses when Marty mentioned maybe adding that exact figure to the payroll he was told numerous times that is not how you run a business. He wouldn't get nearly what he is guaranteed if he were a free agent right now. This is NOT like what Marty and I were talking about, because this is not a player who will only contribute for 1-2 years and it would be adding a SUBSTANTIAL upgrade rather than a marginal one, so much so that the team's competitive window could actually get a lot closer. While Braun is expensive, he is NOT a market-rate asset -- his level of production offers substantial surplus value. I would support this move because I believe that Braun would remain a star-level producer for at least 4 seasons, and that his decline seasons may see him overpaid but still useful. If you believe otherwise, then I understand why you wouldn't want to add the contract.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:11 PM) But what about his post drug production? None of his supporters are looking at the inevitable decline after a player stops using drugs. Actually, SS2K5 and I have exchanged several posts about just that, I assume it'll drop off -- but it would have to fall a LONG way to make the contract bad. The free agent market pays $5-6m per WAR on average. Braun will make between $16-19m per year for the rest of the contract, so he's being paid like a 3-4 WAR player from here on out. His last two full seasons came in at between 7-8 WAR. So even if he got 25-30% worse and lost like 2 WAR, he'd still be worth something like $10m more than his contract each year in comparison to what else we could get with that money. So, from a purely baseball perspective, you can assume he drops of a ton and it would stil be a boon. The point you made remains, however, that he's a total slime bag. So which outcome you root for depends on what you value more.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 01:59 PM) Going all in with a low pair (if we are assuming preflop here) is a much better gamble than long term free agent deals. I was assuming post-flop where you caught your pair in the flop. SHould have explained that more. Regardless, the point remains

QUOTE (flavum @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:07 PM) https://twitter.com/CST_soxvan/status/403252792615112704 Anybody know anything about Elmore? I BELIEVE the book on him is decent bat, no glove.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:01 PM) That'd be amazing to grab him if Milwaukee picked up a good chunk of his contract, but yeah, not happening. I imagine that the only way Milwaukee would actually move him would be to NOT have to pick up much or any of his contract. But that's the thing, it's a BIG contract but it isn't necessarily a BAD contract. His production has been so high that he has been more than worth the money. Whether the contract is good or bad depends on how you think he'll age. But right now, pending an implosion, it's not an unreasonable price.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 01:54 PM) Wait, the possibility of a team taking on a bad contract giving up next to nothing in return never happens. No, the possibility of a team giving you prospects to entice you to accept a bad contract for next to nothing in return never happens. And never will. EDIT: Because it's nonsensical for everyone involved.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 01:53 PM) Assuming of course that he wasn't cheating at that time as well. I assume that he WAS. I'm just saying that he could drop 2 WAR and still be a good deal.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 01:49 PM) I'd love to hear your plan. Add players with surplus value that can be retained for several years. Only add market rate talent when it pushes you over the edge. The current state of free agency is that years are in demand more than dollars in some cases -- making market-rate acquisitions ALWAYS buys present value at the cost of future value, whether that's in terms of dollars or other players. Asking them to exhaust future resources on a team most likely destined for mediocrity is a recipe for short and long term disaster. It's like going all in on a low pair, hoping the river gives you three of a kind. It's a bad gamble.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 01:48 PM) Just so it's said, I'd hate cheering for him to the point that I'd consume significantly less baseball. That'd be real good motivation to cancel my extra innings package. I don't like him either, but man talk about a move that could speed up a rebuild...

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 12:33 PM) The question is, are you willing to bet $110+ million on where that production will be with no steroids? I say yes, because the pre-suspension version of Braun VASTLY overproduced that pay rate. He's been a 7-8 WAR player being paid like a 4 WAR player.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 12:36 PM) I think Hector's value will never be higher. He is a year away from arbitration, and is about to get much more expensive, with no real idea what kind of player he will end up being. I agree. His peripherals were also substantially worse than his ERA last year, suggesting that there's a good chance he's a regression candidate.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 01:07 PM) If they do both they add years to the rebuild. I don't think you understand how team rebuild their cores.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 12:15 PM) I wouldn't even trade Tyler Flowers for him straight up. The Brewers can keep that cheating clown. I understand where you're coming from as a fan, but I'm continually shocked at how often people on this site value the personal likability of players over winning. I'm not judging you for it, just saying it surprises me.

Um, yeah. We should send Dunn and Viciedo and a toss in and no money changes hands. Dude's a jerk but he's an absolute monster hitter that you just don't get the chance to acquire at a fixed rate.

I'd love to send Alexei for Piscotty. Gives us a prospect for the corner that we need badly and opens up a job for Garcia/Semien. Would be a huge win for both teams, IMO.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 09:05 AM) They could have just had a nominal "couple million dollars in case no one else offers anything to him" offer on the table thinking he's a guy who could be traded at the deadline if healthy. Yeah, I imagine Hahn is involved on a few guys as a "price enforcer" -- that if there's someone way undervalued, we'll be in on him and find a way to fit it all together later.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 19, 2013 -> 03:49 PM) And even if you want to point to Madoff, it is worth pointing out that the Mets are FAR from the only team to experience non-baseball related payroll raiding. There are professional franchises that have ended up in bankruptcy. Heck take a look at what happened to the Dodgers before they were sold. But those franchises are billion dollar assets, money should be no object!

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 19, 2013 -> 03:44 PM) It's cool . We're arguing about the tallest midget here. I think Flowers had his shot and he'll never be able to hit. I'll go with the younger guy until Phegley has had his comparative shot . I wouldn't be upset at all about Flowers being a backup (again) while Phegs get more AB's in the minors as long as we have a LH catcher for most of the AB's against righties . Right, they have both been extra bad. If you have to choose between them, you should choose the one you think has more upside. Flowers has the better body and had the better prospect profile, but Phegley is younger and has experienced less failure.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 19, 2013 -> 03:37 PM) Funny thing is, no one will know if you are being facetious here or not. Sure they will -- if I was, it would be green

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 19, 2013 -> 03:18 PM) I don't know about going young. Phegley is only 2 years younger than Flowers. Which is a huge difference.

Interesting comparison: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=242,319 LOL, also: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=319,242,255