Eminor3rd

I just don't know why people think this. Nothing that's occurred in the last 20 years supports the idea that this team will spend beyond the 50th percentile at best, no matter what the roster needs.

Right but his point is that Zack Wheeler was a free agent, not three years from being a free agent.. If you want to project what a contract extension looks like for a given player, the most accurate comp BY FAR is "comparable players that extended at the same level of service time." Essentially, the teams/players are pricing risk against free agency.

No idea really, but Tanaka has already kind of gone there, he has his own clothing brand (MXTX or something) that Rakuten helps him market. Also he's made a dick-ton of money already (from the Yankees), a LOT more than most Japanese players ever make, so it's possible that maximizing earnings isn't the biggest thing. My guess is he knows he's gonna go back and get a few seasons in NPB at some point anyway, he's just trying to figure out if it's now or later. Because at his age, once he goes he isn't coming back.

I think it's definitely a possibility. Hard to know what his priorities are, but with Sugano getting $10mm/yr out of the Giants -- that's a huge ceiling to break through for NPB players. Sugano was already the highest paid player at just under $6mm before, so 4/40 is a precedent-setter. Add that to the fact that there's nothing even remotely close to a salary cap or luxury tax in the NPB, and what each team spends is really up to what the corporation that owns them feels like doing from year to year, and then consider the Rakuten is huge, rich company that's grown a ton in the past five years and is also where Tanaka pitched before, and that Tanaka is an absolute legend in Sendai, having led the Eagles to their only championship the year before he left for MLB, and that the Eagles are currently a contender whose main weakness is a couple big holes in the starting rotation -- and that's a run-on sentence that suggests I think the possibility is ripe for Rakuten to step up and give Tanaka some real money to come home and lead another charge. I think it comes down to how badly he wants to get a WS ring. Because if he's looking at 1/15 over here, he may not be able to get quite that much per year in NPB, but he might get pretty close and with a lot more in overall guaranteed money.

True, but that still leaves room for both Collins/Yermin on the roster to start (if you're considering a DH-only like Cruz anyway), with Vaughn able to come in and replace the lesser one whenever he's ready. And it's still possible that neither Collins/Yermin can really cut it defensively.

Jim Allen just mentioned on his podcast Sunday that the initial report was misquoted to make it seem like he was considering Japan to a much greater extent than he really was (apparently the actual quote was more along the lines of "there's a non-zero chance I'll go back to Japan"), and also mentioned that, at the time he was considering only multi-year deals but is now open to all offers (likely after the Yankees signed Kluber), which has brought more teams into the fray. So, it's still possible he does that, but it seems significantly less likely than before.

Btw I misread this initially, I see you weren't suggesting they could get Cruz AND Tanaka.

If they can find a way to get Cruz and a decent starter, then I can get behind it. But, if that starter ends up being a Gio-Gonzalez-lottery-ticket type, I still think that if you could add Tanaka to this roster for the same money, I'd do it every time even if Cruz is an overall more productive player. But, who knows, maybe you can't add Tanaka at 1/15.

Lance Lynn was a pitching UPGRADE, not a pitching ADDITION, because they used Dunning to get him. Pitching upgrades are always welcome, but above all else, the Sox needed more ADDITIONS. The Sox are going to enter the season with three reliable starters (Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn), two question marks (Cease, Stiever), a prospect who, even if things go well won't be able to handle a full-season's load (Kopech), and a hail mary (Lopez). The Dodgers go into every season with like 7 reliable starters before they have to turn to prospects, because like 50% of pitchers hit the DL every year and a handful are going to disappoint anyway. Going into the year needing literally everything to go right with your pitching staff has always been a terrible plan.

I don't think you're gonna be able to get Cruz + Richards. Not to put too much emphasis on the food accounts, but their claim that the Sox have ~$8mm left to spend passes the smell test for me. If they ask JR to stretch for a DH and leave nothing left for SP -- again, Cruz may be able to carry an offense in the postseason, but this offense doesn't need carried. Meanwhile, you're one injury and a disappointing development year from a bullpen game in Game 3 of a playoff series.

Yes, this is exactly my point.

If both is really on the table, then sure. But I can't imagine there's even a dime leftover if we dump $14mm somewhere else.

Vaughn, Collins, Yermin. You can make an argument that Yermin's development doesn't matter, but the point is that there are a plethora of solid internal options that actually need ABs, and there's already an offensive star at nearly every position on the diamond. And when you're a cheapskate team with limited budget and real holes to fill, you don't throw big money at a position where you already have a plethora of solid internal options.

Look you're not gonna find me defending JR in nearly anything, but if he gives the FO the $14m to spend, and they don't spend it on what they actually need, then you can't blame JR..

I'm not saying your guess is wrong, but if the Sox sign 40-year old Cruz for $14m to block three prospects on what was already the second-highest scoring offense in the AL instead of signing a mid-rotation starter, I'm gonna have absolutely nothing left to defend this FO.

A good point.

Right or wrong, that has nothing to do with whether or not it would have been a "great get" for the White Sox.

Yeah this would have been a great get for the White Sox, and at the right price. Hopefully they've got something else up their sleeves.

Whatever the White Sox would have had to give up to beat the SD package would have been a mistake. Plenty of other options still available for just money, and not all that much of it.

I know man and I'm actually pumped about it because I'm a huge Rakuten fan and I just can't believe he would end up anywhere other than Rakuten and good LORD do they need him right now. Tanaka/Norimoto/Kishi/Wakui/Shiomi/Takinaka with Ishibashi/Yuge on the outside-looking-in is all of a sudden a LEGIT rotation, especially considering that Hayakawa could be ready sooner or later and could jump in when Shiomi gets hurt or Wakui/Takinaka turn back into pumpkins. But my point is that what the Sox need is a reliable veteran #3 on a market-rate 1 year deal, whether that's Tanaka or not.

Tanaka or similar @ 1/$15mm or similar is PRECISELY what this team needs. In the current era/meta, good teams simply do not ever find success when they have exactly 5 SPs that need to work out all year. The fact that our back-end is promising but raw prospects is perfect. There will be plenty of opportunities for them to pitch their way into a spot, but they won't be REQUIRED to do so for the team to succeed. They should be deployed as depth with upside, the BEST kind of depth.

My thing is, based on everything I've read, Vaughn is ready to "take his lumps" to make the transition, and I think the best time to have an important player go through that is when the offense is already amazing and doesn't need to put pressure on him to produce. Also, with Yermin/Collins are almost aging out of being prospects without ever being given a shot -- they are the perfect dup to sink or swim as the 30-60 day service time bridge they need to find for Vaughn anyway. And then again with such an obvious need to spend the money on in SP, idk, it just seems really obvious that splurging on a veteran rental DH is almost literally the last thing the roster needs.

No I'm with you. Not because I don't think Cruz is better than EE (he is), and not because I don't think he'd make the team better (he would), but because goddammit they need pitching so bad so bad so bad and we all know the money is about to dry up, meaning if they are still gonna get SP, they're going to burn even more of the future in a trade whilst also burning the future in not getting Vaughn/Yermin/Collins ABs that they absolutely need. #sustainablesuccess #multiplechampionships

For sure. Jasson Dominguez, Deivi Garcia, etc.

I would consider $3mm and "~$4mm" to be pretty much the same thing in this context. EDIT: Like, I assume RH can ask JR for an extra million bucks if he needs it somewhere.