The Sir

Of course they did. Loyalty is paramount in this organization, unless you’re the best hitter in team history and one of the best in MLB history. Then they can invoke an obscure clause in your contract and let you go play for the As.

247 players debuted last year. 28 of them were 1st round picks. 21 of those 28 were younger than the median age of 24.3. So yes, generally, top prospects are going to hit the show at 23 or younger.

Then come up with an objective definition for “legit prospect” and I’ll go through the 247 debuts last year and tell you how many fit into that definition. I promise it won’t be a vast majority.

OK, that's fair. I still don't think it changes the point that talking about average age for any given level when talking about top prospects is a bit dishonest because that age is driven up by many players who aren't even expected to play at the top, much less contribute.

There's no way to disprove this absolutely scientifically, but look at that list I linked in my last post. Of those 247, do you think the "vast majority" are "legit prospects"? Only 28 of them were first round draft picks at any point (and some of those have long surrendered the hype they once had). And yes, SoxTalk, I know that legit prospects come into existence in other ways, but that's still not going to push us into "vast majority" territory. Frankly, I think many more people debut who are never expected to be serious contributors than those who are.

Matt Tomshaw was at AA last year. 29 years old. I might have been wrong to call them "org players", but at WS last year, we had Nolan Brown, Mikey Duarte, JJ Muno, Zach Remillard, Danny Dopico, Drew Hasler, Mike Morrison, Ricardo Pinto (all aged 24), Yermin Mercedes, Connor Walsh, Kyle Kubat (all 25), Tanner Banks (26), and Cameron Seitzer (28). We had Blake Battenfield, Matt Foster, John Parke, Joe Mockbee, Yelmison Peralta, and Devan Watts, who were all 23. None of these guys can be considered prospects. They all drive the average age up. So yes, if we're thinking X prospect is on track because the average age of Y level is Z, we will probably be wrong because there are a lot of guys playing at Y level who are older and never expected to be in the actual show. On the last part, there were 247 MLB debuts last year. Their median age was 24.3 years. But again, my entire theory is that serious prospects should be ahead of Ray Black, Sherman Johnson, and Jon Berti (all who debuted at age 28 last year). I don't have time to give an average and median age of top 100 prospects that were in last year's debut group, but a quick glance justifies my position. Soto, Acuna, Bryse Wilson, Mike Soroka, Allard, Urias, Torres, Sheffield, Tucker, Kopech, Kyle Wright, Billy McKinney, Reid-Foley, Kohl Stewart, Dakota Hudson, Scott, Kingery, all debuted a year or more in advance of that median age. Good ol' Tyler Beede is actually one spot in front of the median guy. Above the median, only seven guys of 123 were drafted in the first round (none higher than 19th). Below the median age, 21 of 124 were first round picks. So, whether you look at median or average, highly touted prospects should and do debut at significantly younger ages. We can talk about average ages of MiLB levels, and average age of MLB debuts, but that is generally driven up by less touted and talented players whose contributions will end up being far less notable.

Those numbers are also inflated by org players. The MLB debut average age is inflated by the Scott Carrolls, Frank Schwindels, and Ryan Cordells of the world. I think it's perfectly fair to expect a prospect with any amount of helium to be ahead of that timeline. Merely a personal opinion here, but I want these guys to debut by 22-23, so we can control their age 23-29 seasons, roughly. And I'm a big fan of Gonzalez.

I really think that our OF of the future is Jimenez, Gonzalez, and Rutherford.

He has a career OPS of .661. Only in a fan base where the standards of quality have been as horribly abused as this one is that considered a “serviceable starter”. Who cares about attitude and energy? Give me a few million dollars a year and I’ll force myself to run around and act like an imbecile for other people’s amusement, dumping Gatorade on my head and such, but your team will still be terrible.

That pitch, or Yolmer?

I can't wait until the Yolmer era ends. I will enjoy it more than the end of the Dunn and Laroche eras combined. Dude is a terrible baseball player.

No way.

His swing on those breaking balls just looks awful. (This is a judgment of four at bats, and not an overall indictment of how I think he'll perform).

Right. The south is disgusting, but Portland is some sort of dream destination. Have fun dodging homeless person shit while walking to the game.

That was clear and convincing?

Yeah, I thought he looked a bit lazy out there on that one.

Well, at least Eloy made contact.

No, Eloy looking great was important too. And while the sample size is infinitesimal, breaking balls just don't look like his thing.

I've never seen what everybody else does in Yolmer. Guy is a clown.

McCann's arm is garbage.

Sheesh, guy, it was tongue-in-cheek. But with the offensive struggles we've had for years, it's not fun when a season starts with six innings and two hits. I get that we're going to suck, and I'm watching in spite of it. I do believe this team's going to hit, and I want that because losing 8-6 with crazy things like back-to-back singles every once in a while is way more fun than losing 1-0. That was the entire, joking point of the post. I'll think about other hobbies, but maybe I could test out moonlighting as Mr. Super Serious Message Board Guy. Does it make you happy?

Man, if we're not going to contend this year, I'd much rather the pitching suck than the hitting. Probably will turn out that way, but I can't watch a whole season of a team struggling to score two runs in a given day. This is boring already.

So the super premature scouting report on Eloy is that I could probably strike him out with breaking junk low and away. Also, I hate Yonder already. Waste of a roster spot.

Is it starting? MLBTV still says "in weather delay".

This is going to backfire. He had a 28% k-rate at AA. Yeah, yeah, he was 19. He's going to get destroyed in MLB for the time being (and in my opinion, for the future too).