Feeky Magee

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 12:43 PM) Now I'm not going to say that Clayton Kershaw couldn't put up better numbers than Sale pitching in the Cell, maybe he could. You'd probably find a lot of people that say he would. But neither of us know for sure and you can't minimize the imapct of the DH and overall park and league factors just through some dumbass formula. It's on the field where these guys play and every single tough out, every tough AB, etc. this all adds up over the course of a game and effects enerything else. The NL is the much easier league to pitch in & the NL West has a lot of large ballparks & s*** hitters too. You just can't compare the two. They're literally park and league-adjusted so you can definitely say all of those things.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 12:15 PM) Not seeing the bolded. Differences are marginal. An intelligent, dominant pitcher in the NL can abuse the #8 hitter and work an inning toward the 9 hole if need be. League adjustments don't fully account for this. And anyway, Sale hasn't necessarily even truly peaked. QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 12:21 PM) Eh, it's pretty close. Kershaw is basically slightly better on K%, GB% and K/BB ratio, but you can make an argument that facing the weak NL west and the weaker league in general helps in ways that don't get park / league adjusted. Basically IMO there is a clear tier, with: Kershaw Felix Sale ---- every else the differences in quality between Sale, Kershaw and Felix are almost indistinguishable but gun to my head I'd go: Kershaw, Sale, Felix. Chris Sale is really f***ing good however you slice it and we are lucky to watch him pitch every 5 days or so. Kershaw FIP: 1.75 Kershaw xFIP: 1.92 Kershaw SIERA: 1.90 Sale FIP: 2.31 Sale xFIP: 2.80 Sale SIERA: 2.58 Those are some pretty significant differences when you're talking about that level of excellence. Sale is obviously utterly brilliant, but Kershaw is the king.

One thing I found funny is Andrew Mitchell's control getting a 40, whilst Spencer Adams got a 45. Mitchell has walked 22.4% of batters faced, Adams 2%.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 10:53 AM) If Sale faced pitchers three times a game, faced NL lineups, and pitched in an extreme pitchers park as Kershaw does vs. the cell, the argument would rage. Personally, I believe it is a very close call. There's plenty of peripherals which are league and park-adjusted, and Kershaw blows Sale and everyone else right out of the water

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 11:55 AM) If he was really there, he'd be the #2 or #3 prospect in the system right now. Ceiling? Maybe. Realistic, not really. We were specifically talking about ceiling comps QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 11:28 AM) If everything clicks for Barnum you have a Ryan Howard in his prime type of player. If everything clicks for Ravelo you have Billy Butler.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 11:52 AM) There isn't anyone at W-S who "has" to move up, though there are a couple guys who could (Bucciferro most likely). So this is not a move to make room in B-Ham (though it is worth noting, Bassitt was just added back to B-Ham). This is because they think Beck is ready for AAA challenges. Have you heard anything about his anaemic strikeout rate? I know there's a running theory that it's because he's emphasising use of the fastball, but have you heard anything from the team/scouts about it?

QUOTE (chisoxfan310 @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 07:44 AM) I think the fact that people defend Beckham is fantastic/hilarious I think you need to read the defences more carefully

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 10:40 AM) Billy Butler is not a "pretty good comp" for Ravelo. First baseman with a good hit-tool who can take a walk and has decent but limited power?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 11:39 AM) Billy Butler is realistic? More realistic than Ryan Howard in his prime to Keon Barnum? Sure.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 11:31 AM) Would a trade of Danks for prospects be a sign the team does not plan on winning again next year? I'd say yes that's what it means. You'd be totally weakening an already pathetic staff. If they got prospects for him in addition to salary relief, we're laughing. I think even salary relief would be a sign that the Sox think they can better spend that $14.2m per year in free agency/international free agency/extensions.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 10:28 AM) If everything clicks for Barnum you have a Ryan Howard in his prime type of player. If everything clicks for Ravelo you have Billy Butler. These are prospects lists that are all based on projectability. Ravelo's got a better shot at making the majors but Barnum has better shot at being an all-star in my view. It is a gold mine if Barnum learns better pitch recognition and fixes the hole in his swing, skills that can be learned through repetition. While Ravelo is only 10 months older, he has almost 1000 more PA's than Barnum does (1603-674). Ryan Howard in his prime hit .313/.425/.659. Where's the evidence that Barnum has anything even approaching that hit-tool or plate discipline? If by "if everything clicks" for Barnum you mean "if he totally changes his skill-set" then sure, but you could say that for anyone. Billy Butler's a pretty good comp for Ravelo and insanely more realistic than Howard to Barnum. Butler was also an All-Star. That would give Ravelo a better shot of being an All-Star.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 10:16 AM) Danks is a much better "effectively wild" type pitcher. He doesn't have the type of stuff to pepper the zone. You can see it in the extreme reduction in his homer rate (down 33%), and both his H/9-BAA dropping this year. His K rate is also up. His K rate is slightly up from 15.3% to 16.1%. His walk rate is way up from 4.6% to 8%. His homer rate is down mainly because last year's was a flukily high number. His hit rate is slightly down from 9.82 H/9 to 9.34 H/9, primarily because he's walking a lot more guys.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 11:12 AM) Is there some guy they might have wanted to move up from A that needed to have room? Beck hadn't exactly mastered AA hitters. I'm hoping for Bucciferro. Dykstra would arguably be even fairer given his numbers, but he was only recently moved to WS.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 09:51 AM) I would agree with that. When you are measuring upside though Barnum has a ton of upside and Ravelos is pretty limited. The MLB.com article says that the Sox have given Barnums power an 80 grade on the 80 point system. In my mind Ravelo's closest ML comp right now would be Gaby Sanchez. EDIT: Barnum is by far one of the biggest boom or bust guys in the system, if he hits you have a gold mine. Ravelo just doesn't have that upside, Ravelo does have a much better chance of reaching the majors though his ceiling right now would seem to be a bat off the bench. I'm not sure of this whole "boom or bust" concept. I think there's a solid argument to be made that Ravelo's ceiling is higher. We've seen what he can do with limited power, if he starts hitting for power he can be really something. Barnum might have huge power, but even if it starts showing up in games, with his hit-tool and plate discipline being so meh, does that really equate a gold mine? If you asked me who's more likely to put up, say, a 150 wRC+ in the majors, I'd say Ravelo. That to me is better upside.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 09:38 AM) That has nothing to do with projections. Barnum has a ton of raw power that he needs to translate into games, Ravelo does not. We are talking about prospects and trying to determine their ceilings based on the tools they present. The list is basically saying that Barnum has a better chance of refining his swing to make more consistent contact than Ravelo is going to all of a sudden develop power. Again these are projections based on upside and it is hard to see Ravelo developing into much more than he is now. If Ravelo were a LF, 2B, or even would have been able to stay at 3B, his profile looks a lot better long term, but if he is indeed limited to 1B, his value is not very high. Actually Ravelo does have power that hasn't yet translated into games, I've seen it written that he puts on power shows in BP. He hits an absolute ton of doubles, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some of those started turning into homers. I'd be more surprised if Barnum started making acceptable contact all of a sudden. Of course he'd be a way better prospect anywhere other than 1B (I'd like to see him at least tried in the corner outfield), and not to be a complete stats scout but at the moment, I think he and his 145 wRC+ at AA aged 22 has a better chance than Barnum and his 90 wRC+ aged 6 months younger at A+.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 10:26 AM) Danks is, this year, a #4 starter. But people seem to be forgetting that he was really more of a #3 before the injury, and this is his recovery year. No one should have expected he'd be 100% his usual self this season. He's still building up strength. So really what you are trading is a guy who is a #4 now, but very likely could be a #3 in the remaining two years of his contract. And at that level, his salary is more or less in line with value. Keeping that in mind, if the Sox are willing to trade him and maybe send some money (say $5M a year for each remaining, so $10M total), then you are giving another team significant differential value. Will that get you an elite prospect? No, but it could very likely give you a couple or three prospects who might turn into something. The team who gets Danks gets a cost-controlled starter for 2.5 seasons who, if healthy next year gives you mid-rotation quality. There's value there, but the Sox are probably considering whether it is better to wait and trade him this offseason or even next year at the deadline, when he's likely to be performing better. Instead of all this talk about #4 and #3, how about that he ranks 85th of 92 qualified starters in FIP, 86th of 92 in xFIP, and 85th of 92 in SIERA. Last year was his recovery year. This year was supposed to be his bounceback year. Meanwhile, his velocity is showing no signs of coming back, his strikeouts are almost the same as last year and his walk rate has nearly doubled. All across the board his numbers are down on last year, barring giving up less homers, and last year's homer number was flukily high anyway.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 09:02 AM) Ravelo is getting dinged for playing a power position and displaying a lack of power. Barnum ranks ahead of him because, for all of his faults, the kid has power that will play at 1B. Ravelo is a guy that seems to have reached his ceiling in that he is a really solid contact hitter but really offers little else in the way of tools. If he played 2B, he would be a top 5 guy, but as a 1B/DH his long term projection is as a bench bat. It is tough to see a lot of upside in Ravelo at this point, and that is what this list really reflects more than anything is their perceived ceiling of these players. Aside from the fact that Ravelo nearly matched Barnum's ISO last year and has a bigger one this year (.146 to .127), even if Barnum hit for more power but with a worse wRC+ in the majors, how does that make him more valuable than Ravelo? I get that people want power from certain positions, but I'm taking the .290/.380/.450 1B over the .250/.310/.500 guy, and even then in my opinion Ravelo's more likely to produce the former line than Barnum the latter.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 08:52 AM) And I know a lot of people won't like this, but the guys intangibles are just off of the chart. He will leave anything and everything on the field to win a game. The "basehit" with the runner on 3rd and the IF in yesterday is the perfect example. 99.9999% of players are out on that play. Adam Eaton? Nope. He stole that play, and it turned into two runs. Any other player on the White Sox that is a ground out. Actually that shows up in his tangibles

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 09:53 AM) Mitchell has a big time arm and I wouldn't write off his ability to pitch at the big league level. I'm not writing him off, I'm simply saying I feel Ravelo has a much bigger chance at this moment of being a major league contributor

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 07:12 AM) Ravelo is a serious head-scratcher. On the flip side, so is Adam Lopez. During the offseason, he didn't make anyone else's Top 20 or 25 or 30 even. A couple of us FS voters had him getting a couple low-end votes on a T30, but then we heard about the knee surgery. Now, he's missed most of the year, was already old for level, and in addition to the knee is now having "elbow problems". And he's #16? WTF? Seems obvious they've heavily gone off the preseason list, not wanting to have significant swings. Lopez was a bit of a wildcard in that, at #12. I mean Mitchell has gone from #18 to #19 after walking well over 20% of the batters he's faced. The only significant moves are Montas from #19 to #3 and Davidson from #2 to #8, and it took pretty dramatic performances from both, at either end of the scale.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 28, 2014 -> 06:57 AM) Source says Chris Beck is headed for Charlotte. Interesting

Spencer Adams: 12.57 K/9, 0.81 BB/9 That's slightly inflated by him facing quite a few batters (thanks in part to a BABIP that must be well over .400), but his K and BB rates are still elite - 31.3 K%, 2 BB%.

Erik Johnson with 4 walks to 1 strikeout. Yikes. Gave up 3 over 5 innings with 8 hits.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jul 27, 2014 -> 10:08 PM) Adams 4 inn, 0 BB, 6 K 29 strikeouts to 2 walks in 21.2 IP. Is that good

QUOTE (Timmy U @ Jul 27, 2014 -> 10:00 PM) The second ten is mostly a rearrange of their preseason list. I mean, Andrew Mitchell has really struggled finding the zone. If they were really looking with fresh eyes, you gotta imagine Dykstra is over Mitchell and Braulio Ortiz. Also, by next year, I bet Freundenburg, Lowry, and Jace Fry are ahead of those guys too. You don't get the sense the same amount of consultation with scouts is possible in season with these lists. What do you see in Freundenburg and (particularly) Lowry?