VAfan

I seem to be one of the few posters on Soxtalk who is gung ho and positive about the team. I just posted over at the Athletic something that came to me. Why am I so positive when so many Sox fans are so negative? I think it's because while the Sox have been wandering in the wilderness during the rebuild, I just tuned the team and MLB out. I have been a Sox fan since 1970 when I lived in the Chicago area, but I haven't lived in Illinois since 1976, so it's pretty easy for me to do that. Meanwhile, I'm guessing most of the fans who remain highly critical of the team have continued living through those painful years, and feel that team ownership and management owes them something for them having to endure those years. Is there something to that? For me, returning to the team as I did last year, all I see are good things and growth. Here are a few things that I really like (whether or not other Sox fans do). 1. The Sox have 9 players - tied with the Dodgers - on MLB's top 100 Players Right Now list. Only 4 of them are in their 30s, with Abreu 34. Lynn 33, and Grandal and Hendriks 32. 2. Of these 9 players, the young core is going to be here for 3 or more years. See my 3-5 year window article. Lance Lynn is only signed for one year, but could easily be extended. 3. Most of these 9 players are still improving -- Robert, Moncada, Giolito, Jimenez, Anderson. The other 4 should hang in there for another few years. 4. In addition to this top-100 core, the Sox are going to bring up three more young players with great upside - Andrew Vaughn, Michael Kopech, and Zack Collins. Some may think Collins doesn't belong on this list, but I think he just needs enough ML ABs to settle in and prove he'll be a very good offensive backup catcher and part-time lefty DH. Meanwhile, Vaughn and Kopech might join other Sox' players on that top 100 list soon. 5. The Sox also have a HOF manager, who has won far more games during the decades of integrated baseball than any other manager in history. He's won pennants and World Series with teams in both leagues. And he's bilingual. If he takes the Sox to the World Series and wins, he'll be the consensus best manager of all time. 6. I love the Sox new pitching coach Ethan Katz, and what I think he'll be able to do with the young Sox pitchers, especially Dylan Cease. 7. The Sox have one of the best, and perhaps the best, bullpens in baseball. This will help them win a lot of games, and will become of even more importance when the Sox make the playoffs. And that's without counting Garrett Crochet, the 100-mph man, who could be the ultimate bullpen weapon this year before he converts to being starter. 8. The Sox probably have the best offense in the AL. They can bash the ball with anyone. But they can do more than just bash. They have some great speed guys in Robert and Anderson, and some excellent bat control guys like Madrigal and Eaton. 9. The Sox have the reigning AL-MVP in Jose Abreu, who has won the RBI title the last two years. They have perhaps the best closer in baseball in Liam Hendriks. They have the 2019 batting title winner in Tim Anderson. 10. In Tim Anderson, the Sox have one of the best leadoff players in baseball. All he did in the short postseason was get 3 hits in each of his 3 games -- 9 hits overall. He is still getting better. He was the highest ranked Sox player in the Top 100, and he's probably underrated. 11. In Eloy Jimenez, the Sox have a budding superstar with the bat, who will probably take over Abreu's role in the middle of the lineup as Jose eventually ages out. He's also got a winning personality, keeping everyone uplifted and loose. He's smiling all the time. 12. In Lucas Giolito, the Sox have a big-game pitcher who rises to the occasion. He may not win the Cy Young (though he may), but I wouldn't be afraid to start him heads up with any Cy Young or other pitcher in baseball. I would consider us no worse than even in any matchup. 13. In Luis Robert, the Sox have a budding superstar. Who knows how good he'll become over the next few years. But it's going to be fun to watch. 14. The Sox went 14-0 against lefty starters last year. That should terrify opposing managers who will have to try to juggle their pitching staffs to avoid using lefty starters and relievers. The Sox are a young, hungry team who got a taste last year and now are ready to dominate. They have skillful and savvy vets to help lead them, several guys who have been on World Series teams, and a HOF manager who has seen it all and knows how to manage when the pressure is on. I'm really glad the Sox didn't go out and repeat the Encarnacion and Gonzalez mistakes, but instead decided to roll with young players who need to play to get them where they need to be by the postseason. I don't want to watch some dubious veteran with no future on the Sox take ABs away from a younger player who is expected to be part of the team's core for the next 5-6 years. I happen to really like the choices the Sox made in the offseason. I don't know if the Sox are going to win the AL Pennant or World Series, but I believe we're going to win the AL Central by a relatively comfortable margin. There may be ups and downs during the season, but I'm not going to freak out about it. I'm just going to enjoy the Sox this year.

Not exactly, because Tim Anderson was ranked 10th at SS in that ranking, but he jumped up a lot by the time they did the top 100 piece. And those individual rankings didn't give any overall context.

These rankings have been out for a while, Kind of surprised no one started a thread on them. Here's the ranking link. The White Sox tie the Dodgers by having 9 players ranked in the top 100. 94. Luis Robert 90. Yoan Moncada 75. Lance Lynn 69. Lucas Giolito 58. Liam Hendriks (top rated reliever) 54. Eloy Jimenez 49. Yasmani Grandal 31. Jose Abreu 27. Tim Anderson The Twins have Buxton 91, Maeda 79, Donaldson 47, Cruz 42 = 4 The Indians have Ramirez 19 and Bieber 12 = 2 In the rest of the AL, The Yankees have Stanton 97, Urshela 78, Torres 64, Voit 41, Judge 21, LeMahieu 14, Cole 1 = 7 The Blue Jays have Guriel Jr 83, Semien 73, Biggio 71, Bichette 57, Ryu 39 = 5 Say what you will about the rankings, but it's pretty awesome the Sox have 9 players on the list, and they have others in the pipeline who might make the list in the future.

The problem with this idea of a one-month stopgap is it just blocks Zack Collins, who needs more ABs, not fewer ABs, to get acclimated to the majors. I don't want someone here for only a few weeks. I'd rather give those ABs to Collins, who can't really be much worse than EE was last year. And if Collins actually hits like his minor league profile suggests he should, he can then continue playing when Vaughn is up as a lefty alternative. Or Collins can catch sometimes and Grandal can DH.

Eaton is a lot cheaper than EE. He's younger. And he can play a position. Plus there was no internal option unless you think Garcia/Engel could hold down RF and do their other roles.

This is a fair take. Where I would quibble is that I don't think most of his critics on this site or others would concede that "for a number of years he was as great of a manager as there was in baseball." If they had, it would have been a more civil conversation.

Since today seems to be the Tony LaRussa posts day, I decided to add a post on a topic I've been thinking about for a while. One of the recurrent themes about LaRussa is -- how is he going to mesh with Tim Anderson and his bat flips? My answer is: if TA is playing winning baseball, TLR is going to be just fine with it. After all, Tony LaRussa managed Rickey Henderson for years, and Henderson was as demonstrative a bat-flipping lead off man as there has ever been in baseball. https://www.mlb.com/cut4/reminder-rickey-henderson-had-some-of-the-best-home-run-trots-of-all-time-c21198 https://gifs.com/gif/rickey-henderson-bat-flip-and-popping-collar-vZwP8A Here's a video of TLR telling a story about Rickey Henderson.

Ditto.

Who cares? What is done is done. I suppose some people will whine about this after every Sox loss, saying "I told you so" ad nauseum. I am not the only Sox fan who thinks the hiring of TLR was a good thing, especially if the main alternative was hiring AJ Hinch who oversaw a cheating team that he said he couldn't do anything about. That's a baseball problem of significant magnitude. TLR screwed up, for sure, but it didn't have anything to do with baseball or his ability to manage. TLR is a great manager. He's on par with any manager in the game today.

If you look at what Hahn and the Sox have done this offseason, I think the failed EE experiment last year, and to a lesser extent the Gio Gonzalez deal, led the Sox in a different direction. For $13M (prorated though it was), the Sox got a .157/.250/.377 anchor in the middle of their lineup. Had they brought up Andrew Vaughn last year, he likely could have hit better than that for next to no money. Zack Collins probably could have done better with EE's 181 plate appearances. So might have Yermin Mercedes. But once they committed to that kind of contract, they weren't just going to cut him or not play him. They left Renteria out to dry with not much choice other than to play him most of the time. Sure, RR moved other guys through the DH spot, including Grandal when McCann caught. But EE still got 44 of 60 games to drag the Sox offense down. And at the end of the year, they had nothing to show for it. Didn't win a playoff series. Didn't help develop a longer term player. Didn't save money they could use for more productive things. I think it was that contract and experience that led Hahn not to go get another temporary bat to place in front of Andrew Vaughn, when Zack Collins might serve well as a DH until Vaughn covers his service time for an extra year of Sox control. At catcher, they signed Lucroy for depth, but only gave him a minor league deal so as not to block Collins from playing. On the pitching side, they did add Rodon, but only for $3M, because their hope is he's just a bridge until Kopech is ready. In short, I think the Sox decided this year to make sure their young trio of Vaughn, Collins, and Kopech will have no veterans in their way once service time issues are resolved.

Jace Fry? Seriously? Wow, will we hear "the sky is falling" for every little nick a White Sox player receives this year? Or "they should have ...... done XYZ"? The Sox will have injuries, as will every major league team. They will manage around them.

A couple things I thought of in reaction. Abreu didn't bat 3rd all the time last year. Grandal hit ahead of him a fair amount. 37 games in the 3rd spot. 23 games in 4th. Anderson did lead off when he was healthy. Agreed about him. Madrigal is too light of a hitter to waste all those extra ABs on, especially if Moncada is the monster you think he'll be. The #2 spot is no longer a place for dink and dunk hitters if you can mash. Much better to see Moncada's doubles and HRs driving in Tim right away instead of trying to steal, hit and run, etc. Plus, putting Anderson, Madrigal, and Abreu together is to RH heavy. Madrigal is best in the 9 hole to turn over the lineup, hit and run with Eaton, be a second lead off guy ahead of Anderson, etc. Lastly, it will be a fun lineup to watch no matter what order TLR has them hitting.

I have a framed photo of the mound shot when they won, with AJ and Jenks and the first rush of guys. I have a pennant somewhere. I have a very worn 2005 Championship t-shirt. I have just a single DVD recap, or maybe it's two discs. But my biggest piece of memorabilia is the 7-page single space typed personal recap of the entire year that I did at the end, mostly off memory. One part of that I come back to often is when Soxtalk went on a Sox Haiku kick somewhere in the early-to-middle of the season and I wrote about a dozen or more Sox Haikus, some of which I can still remember. What's amazing about these is they were written during the season, yet were very World Series focused, when we hadn't won a playoff series since 1917!! This is the one I always remember: Great Ozzie Man Say Pitching and Defense Is Way To World Series Play! I actually saved a document listing them!! Here they are: Ya gotta believe In this torrid White Sox team To go all the way! Lee for Podsednik? Add AJ and El Duque Play Ozzie ball. Win! Little Boat afloat Sailing on to yonder shore Where White Sox are Champs Kenny man, he say Power ball is not the way Go-go Sox are best Garland, Buehrle pitch Fifteen and one and counting Sox duo kick a$$! Big Frank coming back Adds thunder to Sox attack Best team gets better Nineteen seventeen? White Sox fans can't wait to see Champs at Comiskey Thirty-fifth and Shields U.S. Cellular team fields Baseball's supreme team U.S. Cellular, Not Wrigley Field, is home to Chicago's best team McCarthy's the man Filling in for El Duque To mow the Cubs down Brandon McCarthy Six-seven pitching demon Will keep Sox humming All the way this year Eighty-eight year jinx over White Sox are World Champs Bosox won last year Now it's time for the ChiSox To wear Series crown Podsednik leads off Turning speed into Sox runs Sparkplug of the team Iguchi bats next Veteran Japanese star Plays like Zen master Batting Rowand third Jump starts young center fielder To twelve game hit streak Konerko cleans up Leads Sox in walks and home runs Starting to get hot Pierzynski hits fifth Lefty catcher has quick bat Veteran leader

Love this piece. He didn't just sign for the money, even if the money was critical to the process. Colome was an effective closer for us, but he didn't strike me as a team-leader type. I think Hendriks is the kind of guy who will help lead the entire bullpen to shut teams down.

I think Robert will eventually move up in the lineup, but you have to assume that he'll start the year somewhere around where he finished. He showed power but struck out way too much. Pitchers won't throw him anything to hit until he shows plate discipline. It won't matter who is hitting behind him. Meanwhile, if he learns discipline and draws walks, it makes sense to hit him ahead of light hitters like Eaton and Madrigal, where if he steals second, he can score on their singles. If he's hitting ahead of Moncada and Abreu, you are more concerned about running into outs and would be less aggressive on the bases. In addition, with Robert hitting 7th as the last big power bat in the lineup, it takes advantage of the two OBP guys ahead of him - Grandal and Vaughn/Collins - who have no speed but will score on Robert's HRs. So - Robert 7, not Vaughn, because Robert can run and steal second off a walk or single, while Vaughn cannot. Singles by Eaton or Madrigal can then score Robert where they wouldn't score Vaughn. Vaughn also likely to have a higher OBP than Robert, making more use of Robert's power to drive him in from any base.

There are a few problems with using Eaton in the 2 hole. First, he's not nearly as good of a hitter as Moncada, assuming Moncada returns to 2019 form. You don't give extra ABs to worse hitters. Second, he's a platoon hitter, at least part of the time, vulnerable to lefty relievers. Moncada is a switch hitter, able to handle whatever reliever is thrown at him in the late innings. Third, Eaton can be a good hit and run player, both behind Robert, but more importantly, ahead of Madrigal. You don't want to hit and run with Abreu behind you. You don't want to try to steal ahead of Abreu when it might result in an out. If you do it in front of Madrigal, you turn him into an RBI guy with just a single, and if you end the inning with an out, Madrigal is a fine lead off hitter for the next inning. Fourth, by grouping Robert, Eaton/Engel, Madrigal at the bottom, followed by Anderson, gives the Sox their speed together with no one to clog the bases between them. I think LaRussa will use that speed to put pressure on opposing pitchers and produce more small-ball runs than we did last year.

This would be my lineup too. Anderson is the table setter for the whole offense. Has great speed. Will continue to get better. Moncada is #2 so you don't need any kind of platoon, and no reliever will gain an advantage. Abreu is the MVP. Jimenez is the heir apparent to Abreu's role. Bats behind him in case Abreu is out or walks. Grandal is the second lefty/switch hitter. High on base percentage. Vaughn/Collins. Vaughn will also be a high OBP guy, with less power and speed than Robert, which is why I put him here. Robert. At some point he'll have to move up. But for now, I like his HR power cleaning up the high OBP guys ahead, and his speed ahead of the two guys with the least power on the team. I expect LaRussa to use the speed of Robert, Eaton/Engel, Madrigal, and Anderson to disrupt pitchers. Eaton/Engel. With Madrigal it's like a second lead-off group to bring the order around to Anderson. Madrigal. He's not easy to get out. Can hit-and-run with Eaton or Engel. Having the 4 fastest players grouped together gives the White Sox another dimension other than just slugging teams to death. LaRussa will use this as a weapon

The Sox are relying a lot on the development of the players they already have. So most people's take on the offseason depends on whether they think that is a reasonable risk or not. From my perspective, it makes a lot of sense to go about it that way if you believe in the players you have, and it's the way teams like the Rays have to go about it with the payroll restraints they decide to live under. Projections be damned. The interesting thing about PECOTA is that it's not so much off questions about the Sox' starters, which you raise, but our offense, which seems a whole lot more solid to me. I mean, they keep doubting Tim Anderson. How many more years will he have to produce for him to be recognized? Abreu totally flipped the age curve, but it was pretty clear why -- he finally had a winning team and could bring extra focus to leading it. Moncada? Well, he is a mystery because he only had one great year before Covid hit him.

Hey Ray Ray, I thought I would quote one of your comments that I agree since I'm otherwise usually reacting negatively to your posts.

Nelson Cruz is just as much of a fantasy. Who's to say Cruz would sign with the Sox for what the Twins paid? Do you want to spend $15M for Nelson Cruz in order to stunt Andrew Vaughn, who the Sox need not just for 2021, but beyond? I mean, if you push Vaughn off for another year, won't there be some other free agent DH possibility to shove in front of Vaughn again? If the Sox had $15M, they should have invested it in someone other than Nelson Cruz. Cruz was a Sox killer in 2019, but in 2020 after the opening series, the Sox shut him down.

Right. Even though last year they were 6 games worse than the White Sox and have lost their best player. We outscored them by 27 and gave up 29 fewer runs. But they are somehow better??

Who were the right fielders who signed as free agents? There were only 2 - Eaton and Pederson. Pederson turned down the Sox superior offer and ended up settling with the Cubs much later. That left Eaton. Who else were the Sox supposed to sign? Mazara? Obviously not. Springer? At that price? Plus, he's a center fielder. Jackie Bradley, Jr? Another center fielder. Eddie Rosario? Not a competent right fielder. There were quite a few options at LF this year. Almost none in RF. The Sox did what they could.

Helping the "young stars grow" includes letting them play -- including Andrew Vaughn, Michael Kopech, and Zack Collins, along with Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, Dylan Cease, Garrett Crochet, and Codi Heuer, Will all of those players instantly click like young vets Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez do now? No. But if you don't give them the opportunity, they won't be where you need them to be by the end of 2021, or 2022 and beyond. The Sox are not a shoe in for the playoffs, nor would they be if they had added a couple marginal vets. They added EE last year and he was a complete bust. Same with Gio. They would have been better off with Vaughn last year. But the Sox are legitimate favorites to win the AL Central, regardless of PECOTA or any other projection system.

This is a fallacy. No one you advocated signing was any more of a "guarantee" than the player or players the Sox have decided to move forward with. And, if your rebuttal is Springer and Bauer, then you aren't living in reality.

Colome is an enigma. He does convert saves very well. But his peripherals are bad and getting worse. So the stat guys expect it will catch up to him at some point. Looking at 2019 as the last full season, Colome's FIP was 4.08. That was the worst by quite a bit among the top-10 relievers in saves. His K/W ratio was the worst among the top 24 relievers in saves. In 2020, Colome's FIP was better, but his K/W ratio was worse. In other words, he's living dangerously.