VAfan

Of course everyone is accountable. If they don't fix it, then the team will end up where many predicted, with wins in the 80s and possibly missing the playoffs. Long way to go before we'll know. I just want to add here that on the offensive side, the White Sox most need Yoan Moncada to hit like he did in 2019, or better. Whether he's hitting cleanup or #2 or wherever, he's the one player that can help counterbalance the loss of Eloy. So far, he looks pretty lost. Last night he took his walks, but he hasn't come close to hitting the baseball with any authority.

So far, the Sox have played terribly. The only pitchers in their vaunted bullpen doing their jobs have been Crochet and Kopech. Every other bullpen pitcher has pitched poorly or helped blow a lead. The only hitter doing really well is Yermin Mercedes. Anderson has been bad. Grandal marginal. Abreu okay, but not usual Abreu. Robert better than last September, but not where he needs to be. And Moncada has been awful. Eaton has been okay, but he can't carry the ballclub. Nor can Madrigal or Garcia or Billy Hamilton. Vaughn hasn't done anything yet in limited action, nor has Collins. The starting pitchers have done decently, except for Keuchel, and that's the only game we've won. I could second guess several of LaRussa's moves, especially some of his bullpen choices. And yet, if we were playing to the norms we expect from this team, we could be 4-0 instead of 1-3. I'm not sugarcoating things. This is not how I expected the Sox to play to start the season. And, without Eloy, the team is going to be challenged. It's not going to cruise to as many easy victories as we had last year. But I do expect the Sox to sharpen up. No one picked the Angels for the West. But that lineup looks very dangerous to me. It's going to come down to their pitching. The point is, we didn't lose these games to a patsie.

Not our best hitter, but definitely worthy of consistent playing time, and he should get it.

I think Tony LaRussa can recognize a hitter when he sees one. On that basis, I think Mercedes is going to continue to receive playing time. What he does with it will be up to him. But it's crazy for the response to Mercedes doing well would be for some Sox fans to just want to dump Zack Collins, who hit the best of any Sox player in spring training. He has a role on this team as a lefty catcher with a good eye for the strike zone and some power. He's a better catcher than Mercedes, whose best role is DH. Let's enjoy Yermin for the bubbling ball of enthusiasm he is. I personally wouldn't hesistate to use him as cleanup hitter, moving Moncada back to the 2 hole, with Grandal 5th and Vaughn in left field hitting 6th. And when he's not starting, he'd be my #1 pinch hitter. The question will be what to do when Eloy returns. It's going to be a 3-way battle between Mercedes, Vaughn, and Collins for playing time. Collins can always get backup catcher ABs, but if Jimenez is back, only one of Vaughn and Mercedes can start on any given day.

What an amazing night for Yermin Mercedes. He eclipsed an Abreu grand slam, and two electric perfect innings from Michael Kopech. 5 for 5 - four singles and a double, 4 RBIs, at least a couple hits with two strikes, off lefties and righties. You have to feel great for the guy, who once toiled in the Pecos League!! So what is Tony LaRussa going to do with him? It's entirely possible Yermin will outhit both Vaughn and Collins, who were penciled in ahead of him at DH. Is it possible he could outhit Yasmani Grandal and take some of Grandal's DH ABs away? Someone posted his AAA numbers against Luis Robert from 2019. Yermin was toe-to-toe with Robert. I mean, it's crazy to think Yermin might jump into the majors and hit like a madman, isn't it? But what if he does? If he does, I think TLR has to play him. Vaughn can still play LF, as he did tonight. But Collins would look more like the primary backup catcher. If he starts hitting, he might also play some against righties. But if Yermin keeps hitting, he has to keep playing, doesn't he? Plus, the energy he brings to the team is electric. The kid's a natural. An instant fan favorite. Reminds me of what "Baby Shark" did for the Nationals in 2019. He loosened up that team and helped them to play their best. The Sox are already plenty loose, but without Eloy, Mercedes brings his own enthusiasm. I just think it's a great story, and it's only just beginning.

The White Sox win the World Series. That's about as bold as you can get. Don't care too much about how they get there.

I voted 92-94 wins. Before Eloy's injury, I had them playing .600 baseball. I think his loss costs us a few games. 1st place. I love how the Twins lost today - Alex Colome blows a 3-run 9th inning lead and the Twins lose in 10. Hit batter, error, single, second out advances runners, double ties the game.

Thanks for citing me. One thing I don't do as a poster very often is get into back and forth with another poster. I did some with RayRay Sun earlier this offseason, but when you get into parsing what someone said arguments, it's pointless for everyone else reading the site and just clutters things up. I come off here as very optimistic, but mostly I'm just excited to see this Sox team play and get better. The question of the title of this thread cannot be answered about this Sox team yet, because there are too many young and inexperienced pieces. But ask it again in September and we should have a much clearer answer.

I think as fans we overanalyze the lineups. I'm guilty of this too. My current feeling is that Tony LaRussa has managed 5000+ baseball games. He's filled out more lineup cards than most guys in history. I'm willing to defer to his expertise.

There is no way to predict the lineup with the current roster. With Eloy, it was more locked in. But now there are so many moving parts. I think these players will be the most consistent in their place in the lineup 1. Tim Anderson lead off. I expect he'll lead off every game he plays. 2. Jose Abreu 3rd. 3. Nick Madrigal 9th. I think everyone else will get moved around from game to game.

This topic has run it's course, but I just wanted to chime in now that Lamb has made the team that he makes the team better. I'd much rather have Lamb than Mendick on the bench, because Lamb's bat can be useful, as pointed out above. He hit 3rd for Oakland in the playoff game that knocked us out of the postseason. You don't have to look at stats from 4-5 years ago. Just look at last season. Small sample size, but he's not going to get a ton of ABs anyway. He will get some, and should do well with them. Plus, if Moncada gets dinged up and misses a week, the offense doesn't have to go in the tank.

It's time for the pessimists and optimists on Sox Talk to call a truce and let the games dictate how the season will go. I'm as bummed as anyone that the Sox lost 2 outfielders to "hero" plays in spring training!! There should be NO "hero" plays in spring training, and that should be drilled into every player until it's muscle memory. It seems to me that the different perspectives on the team boil down to this. It seems the naysayers want an established team, but for the Sox to get there, they have to play and lean on their young players to develop them. The Sox have a lot of those players. How well they do will decide the season. Look at all the guys who are rookies or have only a shortened year under their belt: Vaughn, Collins, Robert, Crochet, Kopech, Heuer, Foster, Madrigal. Mercedes (if he makes the team). The naysayers look at this group and see risk and failure; the optimists look at this group and see exciting potential. So much of the argument over the winter was having the naysayers demand the Sox sign a bunch of marginal vets -- although the most demanding somehow expected the Sox to be players for George Springer and Trevor Bauer -- so they wouldn't have to rely on so much youth. The optimists like me felt like signing vets to block the development of these players would have been a mistake. If they are good players, and I believe they are, then the Sox needed to start playing them so they can develop this year, and be even better next year. The injury to Eloy heightened this problem, with some wanting a replacement vet. But the Sox seemingly have decided to continue to bet on their youth, moving Vaughn to left field and opening more ABs for Zack Collins. We won't really know who's right until they start playing the games. From my standpoint, I'd just much rather watch a Sox team brimming with talented youth improving before our eyes, even if they struggle a bit, than one with multiple has-been vets filling in. You might call Adam Eaton a has-been veteran fill-in, but he could be the only one in the regular lineup, rotation, or bullpen. The Eloy loss is huge. The Engel injury is annoying. But for those clear negatives, there have been a lot of positives out of camp. 1. Carlos Rodon looks like a major league pitcher. 2. Michael Kopech and Garrett Crochet make the Sox pen versatile and dominant. 3. Zack Collins looks like a major league hitter, with plate discipline and power. He might hit as well or better than Andrew Vaughn out of the gate. 4. Yoan Moncada looks to have returned to form. 5. Adam Eaton looks like a vast improvement over last year's RF. 6. The Tony LaRussa naysayers who predicted disaster appear already to be clearly wrong. 7. The core strengths of the team -- Anderson, Abreu, Grandal, Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, the bullpen -- still look super solid, though they are missing a special hitter in Eloy. The main mystery player is probably Luis Robert. If/when he explodes as a hitter, look out! The Sox will be okay. They will be competitive. With so much youth and Eloy's injury, it's probably a stretch to put them in the World Series this year. But they are coming. And no one is going to want to face them. GO SOX!!

At the end of the 2005 season, I wrote a 17-page opus to the Chicago White Sox 2005 season. Most of this was from memory, but I'm sure I consulted baseball reference for their games list, and the Sox haikus I wrote on Soxtalk I had saved. Recently, I had the brainstorm to finally post it on Soxtalk. So this morning I looked up a free file-sharing site and stored it there. All I have left is the printed file. The Word doc appears to have been lost. So I can't easily excerpt it. But you can read it by clicking on the link below. https://www.keepandshare.com/doc18/24075/what-a-magical-year-2005-chicago-white-sox-pdf-1-6-meg?da=y I hope it brings back some happy Sox memories for anyone who reads it.

If the Sox play .600 baseball, that gets them to 97 wins. That's a LOT more than the projection systems have them winning. So this prediction is highly optimistic. But then I'm pumped about the Sox this year. How did I arrive at .600 baseball? Pretty simple. I think the Sox can win 2/3 of the games started by their front three starters - Giolito, Keuchel, and Lynn. And they can win 1/2 of the games started by whomever fills in those last two slots. Combined, that's 3/5, or .600 baseball. A few things in support: 1. Sox have the best offense in the AL, or are at least neck and neck with the Yankees. Projection systems seriously underrate the Sox offense. 2. Sox have best bullpen in the AL, which will help them win a lot of games. 3. The Twins won 101 games in 2019, and this White Sox team is better than that Twins team. I will grant you that this is not a scientific analysis. I'm not going to go into WAR or look at all the projections by Steamer, or PECOTA, or anyone else. This is purely my gut sense of where the Sox will end up at the end of the regular season. I also think we'll win the division by 4-5 games.

As the thread title says, I'm going to enjoy the White Sox this year. Some posters on Soxtalk? Not so much. I would enjoy it more if people would stick to the topics and refrain from personal back and forth.

If this "fair weather fan" commentary is still related to me, it's misguided. I became a Sox fan in 1970, and followed the team closely through the 2000s. That alone is more than 30 years. How long have you been a fan? If I tuned out during the early part of the rebuild, that doesn't change my Sox fandom. I don't live in the Chicago area. I would still go see Sox games with my Sox friend or son when they would come to DC or Baltimore, but there was no way to see them on TV unless I subscribed to MLB TV. Why would I spend a lot of time and money on a team that was tanking towards 100 losses every year? I never gave up on the Sox or turned to some other team. I just took a break.

I ran across this stat page the other day on the Statcast Exit Velocity and Barrels Leaderboard. Exit Velocity (MPH) Distance (ft) Hard Hit Barrels Rk. Player Team BBE LA (°) SwSp% Max Avg FB/LD GB Max Avg Avg HR 95 MPH+ % % Swing # Brls/BBE % Brls/PA % Those are the headings, and you can sort by them. BBE - Batted ball events LA - Launch angle SwSp% - Sweet spot % Exit velocity pretty clear, as is distance, hard hit and Barrels. Here's where Eloy Jimenez ranked last year. Working backwards from the right 4th in barrels/PA%. behind only Tatis, Seager, and Soto. 7th in barrels/BBE% 11th in hard hit swing % 5th in hard hit % 7th in 95 mph+ 110th in avg HR distance 115th in avg distance 5th (tied) in max distance 17th in GB exit velocity 8th in FB/LD (fly ball/line drive) exit velocity 17th in avg exit velocity 25th in max exit velocity 84th in Sweet Spot% 130th in Launch Angle 56th in BBEs What do these stats tell us about Eloy? For one, he was the highest Sox player on what seem to be the most important stats, ahead of Abreu. On the barrels/PA%, he's 4th in baseball, behind three very highly rated guys. He's also top 11 in barrels/BBE%, hard hit swing %, hard hit %, 95 mph+, max distance, and FB/LD exit velocity. Based on this, my conclusion is he'll be the White Sox best hitter perhaps as early as this year. Measured by other stats, like OPS and OPS+, Abreu was ahead of him in 2020. But we should be expecting Jimenez to keep trending up, while Abreu is unlikely to repeat his 2020 numbers again. Luis Robert might be able to overtake him at some point, but he's not there yet. Of course, these are not the prime stats most hitters are judged by. But if you hit the ball on the barrel a high percentage of the time, good things tend to happen. I just thought this was interesting data and wanted to put it out for discussion.

I don't think the arguments on either side of this are slam dunks. Sure, the Sox want to go for it this year, but we're talking 14 games, some of which Vaughn wouldn't play in even if he's on the roster. For example, if the backup catcher is used, Grandal could DH, or play first with Abreu DH'ing. Out of the first 14 games, that could be as many as 4 games. And if Collins is on the roster, he is likely to play instead of Vaughn against some right handed pitchers throughout the year. That could be 5 of the 10 games. And you could play Leury Garcia just to give him a couple games with Eloy DH'ing. In other words, even if Vaughn starts the season in Chicago, just normal usage suggest he's not going to play more than 130 or so games regardless. Meanwhile, here's the White Sox 3-5 year window. If you wait a few days, Vaughn adds his name to Luis Robert as the only guy under control through 2027. But on the flip side, the fact that the Sox will have so few of their current players under control through 2027 makes you wonder if it's worth trying to hold him through that year. It could be a completely different team by then. The Kris Bryant example is instructive, because the Cubs may still have Bryant, but not much else. Purely as a fan, I want Vaughn on the opening day roster because he's better than the alternatives, and I want to send the message that we're going for it, regardless of contractual issues. But I can see the control argument as well. As for extending a contract to him, it should be less about control and more about whether you think his bat will play so well that you could get him at a bargain now. Then you have cost certainty and can put any savings into helping the team elsewhere. Personally, I'm going to leave that up to the White Sox.

Can you learn to master pitch recognition? It's a serious question. That would seem to be the key to unlocking Luis Robert's crazy potential. If he can learn to lay off the pitches opposing pitchers are hoping he will chase and make them throw strikes or walk him, he's going to crush the baseball. In other words is there the potential for the kind of transformation Lucas Giolito went through with Ethan Katz's help? Looking for some comparison data, I pulled up this hard-hit data. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard Eloy Jimenez is the highest on here in terms of barrels per plate appearance. He's 4th in baseball. Jose Abreu is 11th. Robert is 35th. Tim Anderson is 42nd. If you go back to 2019, Abreu is 12th, Jimenez was 20th, Moncada was 25th, Grandal was 45th, and Anderson was 105th. Roberts is very impressive, but maybe I should start a similar post on Eloy Jimenez!

Frank Thomas set a pretty high standard as a hitter, but it depends on how much you value defense and baserunning.

I expect most Sox fans believe that Luis Robert has the highest upside of any current non-pitcher on the team. I have three questions about that. 1. How high is his upside? You can put this in fWAR or bWAR terms. Something that measures all his skills, not just his hitting. But you can also express his upside in hitting terms if you want. 2. How quickly will he reach his peak production? To give you a crazy comparison, Mike Trout, who seems to be the measurement of all MLB players today, went from 0.5 bWAR in 2011 in 40 games to 10.5 bWAR in 139 games in 2012. He's never exceeded that bWAR number in any subsequent year even though he's had higher hitting totals. It looks like Trout's fWAR peak was 2012, which was 10.2 v. 10.1 fWAR in 2011. 3. As Roberts ramps up his game, where do you hit him in the lineup? My theory is he should hit 7th to start the year, as the last big HR threat in the lineup behind Grandal and Vaughn, who should both be strong on-base batters, and ahead of Eaton and Madrigal where if he gets on, he can steal and score on any single by those hitters. But if he starts ramping up his game, you can't keep him that low in the order. He would need and deserve more ABs. I think the two choices are likely to be 2nd or 3rd in the lineup, either behind or ahead of Moncada to put a lefty bat somewhere near the top. If you hit him second, with Anderson's speed, he should see more fastballs. And if he and Anderson both get on, they can fly around the bases on any ball put into play. Plus you might be more apt to have him steal if he's the only baserunner ahead of Moncada. I don't have answers to these questions, and unlike some of my other rosy posts, I'm not going to make any predictions. I'm just putting this one out for discussion.

Last little tibit I'll leave here for now. At home, I've been known as the "No" man. So sunny optimism is not completely in character. But sports fandom can be an enjoyable escape, and when a team I've been rooting for for more than 50 years is just hitting its sweet spot, why not kick back and take it in? Do y'all remember the 2005 team? That was a hoot from start to finish, and completely unexpected. First place wire to wire. Ahead at some point in each of their first 35 games. Tied for most wins in Sox history. 11-1 in the postseason. 4 complete game wins in a row over the Angels in the ALCS. 1-0 victories in game 1, first game after the All-Star break and last game of the World Series. Won a playoff game on a contested dropped third strike call, heady baserunning by AJ Pierzynski, a timely pinch runner who stole second and a double down the line by Joe Crede. You talk about lack of depth on this team? Remember the smurfs of 2005? Pablo Ozuna, Willie Harris, Geoff Blum, and Brian Anderson. None of them could hit. But all would help the team win the World Series.

I tend to agree that Dylan Cease can be a true difference maker on this team. If he makes anything close to the kind of leap forward that Lucas Giolito did under the tutelage of Ethan Katz, the Sox will be a juggernaut. But I don't think the Sox have to have Cease to win the division. He might just be slightly improved, and give you .500 pitching. That's all you really need from a 4th starter. And if they want to use Crochet in long relief, we didn't really have that last year, so you won't necessarily wear out the pen if Cease can't go more than 5 innings. Heck, didn't the Rays build a whole philosophy around using starters only twice through the lineup? As for health, the Sox core are mostly young guys. We don't really have a lot of older players. That should help.

I'm not exactly a "fair weather fan." I go back to 1970 with the Sox, which is 51 years. And if you look at how long I've posted on Sox Talk (2003), I didn't just arrive yesterday. I guarantee I've posted here longer than most, and been a fan longer than a lot of posters on here have been alive. Just because I tuned out during the years when the Sox were tanking doesn't change that. Any, BTW, I'm not the only one projecting everyone as a star. MLB Top 100 Right Now has 9 Sox on the list, tied with the Dodgers. That's pretty damn good by any measure. I'm also not making any apologies for being excited and optimistic about the team. As the title of this post says -- I'm going to enjoy the White Sox this year. Aren't you?

We do NOT "overall still look like the same team as last year." Here's 10 reasons off the top. 1. Yoan Moncada is over Covid. He went from a 140 OPS+ to a 94 OPS+. Maybe he doesn't get all the way back to 2019. Maybe he's better than 2019. He's going to be a lot better than 2020. 2. Luis Robert, year 2. Sky is the limit for this player. He could be a top 10 player in MLB in 2 years. 3. Lance Lynn. Having a workhorse #3 starter is going to be huge. In 13 starts last year, he gave up 0 ER 2x, 1 ER 4x, 2 ER 3x, more than 3 ER 2x (both to Houston). If you take out his 2 Houston starts, his ERA would have been 1.875. 4. Andrew Vaughn will be better than Edwin Encarnacion. Probably a LOT better. 5. Adam Eaton will be better than Nomar Mazara 6. Liam Hendriks is better than Alex Colome. 7. Aaron Bummer should be healthy 8. Garrett Crochet will contribute in some capacity. 9. Michael Kopech will contribute in some capacity 10. Tony LaRussa is a HOF manager for a reason. Ricky Renteria never will be. As for going beyond winning the AL Central, the playoffs are always a bit of a crapshoot. Just ask the Dodgers how many WS rings they've won in a decade of dominance in the NL. The Sox can compete with any AL team in the playoffs. Our offense is as good or better than any other AL team, including the Yankees. Our starting pitching can compete, and our bullpen might be the best. Adam Eaton may be considered by many naysayers as the weakest link in our lineup, but he hit #2 for the World Series winning Nationals just 2 years ago. Lighten up a bit and enjoy the season. We even have great announcers to help us enjoy the ride!