VAfan

I agree. I hoped otherwise, but by not tendering him, they showed their hand. I'll still think it's a mistake, but the Sox know better than anyone the condition of Rodon's arm, and if they felt he was too much of an injury risk, then I'll have to accept it. I think they've fixed the bullpen, but they are going to need to find another viable starter, preferably a lefty AND still hope Keuchel bounces back enough to be serviceable. Because Kopech can't carry enough innings to be a full-time starter and they only have Lopez in reserve. There isn't much depth in the minors.

The "big move" I would have made would have been to re-sign Carlos Rodon. The reason the Sox failed against Houston was their starting pitching was fried at the end of the year, plus Jimenez was not himself offensively. If we had a healthy and rested starting staff headed by Rodon, and the offense we can produce with Luis Robert and Jimenez in prime form, I would take us over just about any team in baseball. Without Rodon, we're going to need Kopech to be a top-3 postseason starter, and that's going to be hard this year. Either that, or our new bullpen needs to be lights out.

Harrison had a very good 2021 for the Nats. Better than Leury Garcia by a lot. (120 OPS+ v. 96 OPS+). Harrison had a bad last two months in Oakland, however, but still finished better than Garcia on the year. What Harrison provides is a veteran with positional flexibility so the Sox don't have to carry Danny Mendick for 71 games and 186 ABs. Between Garcia and Harrison they can cover 2B, and back up SS, 3B, LF, RF, CF.

Let's look at the 2022 Sox bullpen and compare it to the 2021 bullpen. 2021 IP K% BB% ERA 2022 w 21 stats IP K% BB% Era Liam Hendricks 71 42.30% 2.60% 2.54 Liam Hendricks 71 Aaron Bummer 56.1 31% 12% 3.51 Aaron Bummer 56 Garrett Crochet 54.1 28.30% 11.70% 2.82 Garrett Crochet 54 Cody Heuer 28.2 23.50% 6% 5.12 Kendall Graveman 56 27.50% 9% 1.77 Ryan Tepera 18 32% 9.30% 2.5 Joe Kelly 44 27.50% 8.20% 2.86 Craig Kimbrel 23 36.70% 10.20% 5.09 Craig Kimbrel (total) 59 42.60% 9.80% 2.26 Jose Ruiz 65 23.20% 9.20% 3.05 Jose Ruiz 65 Evan Marshall 27.1 23% 8% 5.6 Reynaldo Lopez 55 Michael Kopech 55.1 36.10% 8.40% 3.9 Ryan Burr 36 Reynaldo Lopez 20.1 24.80% 5.90% 2.21 496 Mike Wright 18 13.60% 13.60% 5.5 Matt Foster 39 23% 7.50% 6 Ryan Burr 36.2 21.90% 13.90% 2.45 510.9 What do you notice? If you keep Craig Kimbrel, which I believe the Sox will do, then you've swapped out Cody Heuer, Evan Marshall, Matt Foster, Mike Wright, and Ryan Tepera for Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly, and you've added Reynaldo Lopez for a whole year instead of just the end of the year. That strikes me as a major upgrade. The only good reliever the Sox have lost is Ryan Tepera, but they've dropped 113 innings of relievers who all had ERAs above 5 runs per game, for 2 pitchers who put up 100 innings, one of whom had an ERA of 1.77 and the other 2.86. Last year we thought the bullpen would be good, but Heuer, Marshall, and Foster all pitched much worse than they had in 2020, and we needed to bring up Mike Wright to eat innings. This year, we've added much more experienced pitchers to replace those guys. Sure, there is some year-to-year fluctuation, but this looks like a much better bullpen even after moving Michael Kopech into the rotation.

I still don't understand why people think the Sox are going to get a "big bat" for RF. Especially one they think is going to "stabilize the middle of the order." Here's the Sox lineup, no matter who they sign. 1. Anderson 2. Moncada 3. Robert 4. Abreu 5, Grandal 6. Jimenez No one left on the market is going to move any of those guys off their spots. After the top 6, the Sox currently have 7. Sheets/Vaughn DH/RF/1B platoon. Against righties, Sheets had a 143 wRC+, and against lefties, Vaughn had a 156 wRC+. Who the hell on the market did better than that? Certainly not Conforto (106 wRC+), Castellanos (140 wRC+), or Kris Bryant (123 wRC+). 8. Engel/Vaughn/Sheets. Since the Sox will rotate other guys into the DH slot -- Grandal, Abreu, and Jimenez - they need somewhere to put Sheets/Vaughn when someone else is DHing. RF is one of those places. (1B and LF is another). If you sign a RF, you are going to stunt the development of Vaughn especially, because he needs time to hit right handers better, and he's not going to supplant Sheets against righties, and he's certainly not going to displace Abreu or Jimenez on a regular basis at 1B or LF. Meanwhile, Engel, in limited ABs, has put up a wRC+ of 121 in 2020, and 127 in 2021. Plus, he's by far the best defender of anyone being discussed. If he could stay healthy, I think we all might be shocked how good of a hitter Adam Engel has become. (Think of the improvement James McCann made. Engel reminds me of McCann.) So, I've been arguing all offseason against doing much in RF. I think the Sox need to develop the young guys they have and use the money they would spend on a RF FA on starting pitching. That's why I wanted Rodon back. But since that ship has sailed, spend the money to extend Lucas Giolito. Look at Tampa Bay. They win because they develop their own guys, focus on developing a deep pitching staff, and trade established guys about to hit it big for more young guys they can develop. The Sox will not have "failed" if they don't sign a big name RF. They have 3 hitters between DH and RF who have put up wRC+ numbers better than almost all of those guys, and who are all on dirt-cheap contracts. P.S. The other reason not to sign the "big bat" for RF is they would likely want a multi-year deal. But as someone above reminded me, the future in RF for the Sox is likely Oscar Colas or Yoenis Cespedes. Neither will likely be ready this year, but they might be by next year.

What was the big move at 2B? There isn't much on the market, and to trade for an impact 2B would have weakened the Sox elsewhere. The only big move I could see would have been to put Moncada back at 2B to make room for a strong hitting FA 3B. No one seemed to pick up on that, however. And it's true that Moncada is a better 3B than he ever was at 2B. We need Moncada's 2019 bat to return, so moving him likely also wouldn't have helped that chance. You don't need studs at every position to win a WS. Whomever we had at 2B is likely going to be our 9th place hitter. All we need is someone who's league average, and Josh Harrison has been that the last 2 years.

Let me be one of the only ones on this thread to say that even with this signing, I think the Sox will not trade Kimbrel for now. Why not? 1. His value is too low. Any trade would be mostly a salary dump, not netting the Sox much of anything in return. 2. The Sox signed their 2B, so Kimbrel isn't going in a package for a new 2B. 3. Kimbrel wouldn't net a better RF than what we already have. 4. Kimbrel also wouldn't net starting pitcher depth of any quality. Conclusion? Kimbrel has the biggest upside of anything you could swap him for, so to trade him might save money, but it would make the team worse.

Except that he did in 2021.

It's amazing how much consternation will be exercised on this site over someone who will be our 9th place hitter. Not to mention that Harrison had a better year with the Nats last season than Madrigal had with the Sox. Nick's BA was slightly higher, and his K rate lower, but Harrison had better OBP, SLG, and wRC+ totals than Nick. As someone wrote above, Madrigal had some cache as "Nicky 2-strikes", but his offensive numbers were not eye-popping, he was a poor baserunner, and he kept getting injured. Seems like the Sox have largely replaced him. Of course, that assumes we get the good version of Josh Harrison. If we get the Detroit or Oakland version, then we have Cesar Hernandez all over again. In which case Leury Garcia will end up spending the bulk of his playing time at 2B. This strikes me as a neutral deal. They only spent money, not prospects in trade. And if they get the good version of Harrison, they have covered themselves at 2B.

Hernandez hit 21 HRs, mostly for Cleveland, yet had a lower slugging percentage and wRC+ than Harrison last year, even with Harrison's bad drop off in Oakland. Put another way, Harrison was better for Oakland than Hernandez was for the Sox. What's kind of interesting is that Harrison was great for the Nats last year, and now they have Hernandez.

Sheets was among the Sox' best hitters against right handed pitching last year, as measured by wRC+. His wRC+ of 125 overall (against righties and lefties) was 5th best on the team, and essentially tied with Abreu (126 wRC+) and Engel (127 wRC+). Only Robert and Grandal blew that away. But even Robert didn't hit right handers better. Grandal did. So, you think the Sox should send down to AAA their second best hitter against right handed pitching?

A platoon in RF continues to make sense. If you add a guy like Conforto, who gets benched? First off, Conforto had a bad year in 2021. He did not hit righties better than Gavin Sheets. And he did not hit lefties better than Andrew Vaughn. Sheets had a .900 OPS and a 143 wRC+ against right handed pitchers last year. All 11 of his HRs were against righties. And he's just starting to figure it out. Michael Conforto, by contrast, had a .793 OPS and 119 wRC+ against righties last year. Meanwihile, Vaughn kills lefties to the tune of a .938 OPS and a 156 wRC+. Conforto in 2021? .701 OPS and 91 wRC+. Based on that, a Sheets/Vaughn platoon had a much better offensive year in 2021 than Michael Conforto. Then you have Adam Engel, who is by far the best fielder among Sheets, Vaughn, and Conforto. Oddly enough, he had reverse splits last year, hitting right handers extremely well -- .938 OPS and 154 wRC+. Lefties actually befuddled Engel last year. But he was also hurt a lot and had only 140 PAs. In 2020, he hit both righties and lefties well. Now, presumably Sheets and Vaughn are going to spend a lot of time DHing, but the Sox have so many other players to rotate into that spot -- Grandal, Abreu, and Jimenez, that for them to get playing time, they need to spend some time in the outfield. 1B will not always be open as a backup, as Grandal plays there as well. So, if you sign Conforto, it just seems like you have stunted the development of some very cheap players who may actually be more productive with the bat than him. Not to mention that if you sign him for multiple years, will you then block the development of Oscar Colas and Yoenis Cespedes? Better to spend the money elsewhere. (Like on Carlos Rodon.)

There have been many many posts suggesting the Sox make trades. I don't think any of them make sense. We saw last year what a major trade looks like -- Madrigal and Heuer for Kimbrel. Regardless of what you think about the trade, the fact is that the Sox created a hole in their team in a go-for-it move that didn't work out. Now filling the 2B hole created by trading Madrigal is near the top of everyone's wish list, and there aren't any great options out there. If the Sox want to trade for a starting pitcher of any quality, they would have to create other holes in our current roster. This is because the Sox' farm system is very thin. Which is also because the recent stars of their farm system are on the major league club. The Sox could continue to make the kind of mid-season move that brought Ryan Tapera last year. But that's about it. I guess you could trade Kimbrel to try to fill 2B, but even that creates a hole in the bullpen that would need to be filled.

I'm totally bummed by the Sox losing Rodon. I've argued all offseason he should be their #1 priority. I think the arm issues last year were fatigue, not anything structural. He should bounce back with a vengeance this year. For a good stretch last season, he was the best pitcher in the AL. Jayson Stark gave him the Cy Young at the All-Star break. He's irreplaceable. There is no one of his quality in the Sox system -- I'd rank Rodon as our best starter last year -- especially no one from the left side. I think Rodon will be a top-5 pitcher in baseball over the next 5 years.

My vote: 1. Re-sign Rodon, hopefully for at least 2 years. 2. Keep Kimbrel. He's not worth trading as a salary dump, and he's not valued highly enough for someone to take on his salary and give something of equal value. 3. If the Sox are willing to spend, they can do more. But they should not try to do something else if it keeps them from doing 1 and 2.

The problem here is that MLB isn't willing to give the players much of anything. They seek to offset any increases in their offer. So, somewhat more money, but control of rules changes, plus more playoff teams meaning more TV money. Would additional TV money completely cover any increases in the contract?

Do you want to see Rodon on the Yankees or Twins? Or Tigers? I didn't even use this in my arguments, but one of the biggest reasons to re-sign Rodon is to keep him away from another AL team.

The Sox have the best information of anyone on his health. I think a player hires Boras to get the best deal. Boras was Rodon's agent last year and he re-signed with the Sox. If the Sox are willing to at least match another's teams offer for Rodon, I think he'll stay.

I can understand the viewpoint that the Sox may not pony up to keep Rodon. What I can't understand is thinking that would be a bad idea. I believe the Sox do not want to set the market for Rodon, but may be willing to match the market, depending on any offer he receives elsewhere. I also believe that, if the offers are equal, Rodon would choose returning to the Sox over just about any other team that bids for his services. But let me just remind everyone here how good Rodon was last year. Here are his splits from Baseball Reference, and here are his game logs. He had 24 appearances. He gave up 0-3 hits in 13 of them. He had 7 outings of 0 runs, 8 outings of 1 run, 2 outings of 2 runs, 2 of 3, 4 of 4, and 1 of 5. He was DOMINANT. Here's Grant Bribee, Giants writer for the Athletic, on Rodon: So, the Sox may not sign Rodon, but they SHOULD. He's WAY better than any other pitcher named in this thread, and he only costs money, not prospects or current Sox players.

So much has already been written about what the Sox should do to fill out their roster before a season starts, whenever that occurs. 2B, RF, and SP are usually the top 3, with backup catcher and further BP depth also listed. For my money, I believe that re-signing Carlos Rodon should be the Sox #1 priority, and if that was all they could do, I'd be okay with that. Here are the reasons. 1. Rodon finished 34th in baseball with 5 WAR last year. https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders That was the second highest total on the team, behind Lance Lynn's 5.4 WAR. Tim Anderson was the only other Sox player ranked in the top 50, coming in tied for 47th at 4.6 WAR. (NOTE: I'm drawing WAR numbers from different lists that don't seem consistent, but I don't think if you plug in Baseball Reference or FanGraphs numbers that it changes any of these points.) 2. The Sox without Rodon have only 1 lefty starter - Dallas Keuchel - and he had the worst season of any Sox starter last year. He was so bad down the stretch that he was left off the playoff roster. The Sox badly need a lefty for some balance. 3. Even with the lockout, the Sox need to keep their starters fresh into October if they want to advance in the playoffs. The meltdown of their starters against Houston doomed the Sox chances. By adding a 6th starter, and one who can slot at the top of the rotation, the Sox should be able to ease the workload on all so they are pitching strong late. The last Sox team to win the WS in 2005 was led by a dominant starting staff. It may be old-school now, but that's partly because no team has a dominant starting staff. By bringing Rodon back and easing in Kopech, the Sox could have the best starting staff in baseball. 4. A corollary of #3 is that the Sox have at least 2 starters who need innings limits -- Michael Kopech, because he's not fully up to speed yet, and Dallas Keuchel, to keep him from vesting his option. If the Sox don't add a starter like Rodon, they'll be forced to dip into far inferior starting options to cover for those limitations. And this doesn't even factor in potential injuries that inevitably occur. 5. The Sox are not going to come close to signing a similarly impactful player for 2B or RF. Here's a list of free agents by position, with WAR listed, and including those signed. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2021-22-free-agents-by-position At 2B, the White Sox actually already signed the 3rd highest FA by WAR in Leury Garcia, at 2.4. To get a higher WAR FA 2B, the Sox would have to sign Trevor Story and move him to 2B. That's just not going to happen. For RF, everyone's favorite is Michael Conforto, listed on that chart with a 2.9 WAR. (Not sure where that WAR number comes from, as Baseball Reference and Fangraphs both have him at 0.8 WAR in 2021 and only 2.1 WAR in 2020). That's not much of an upgrade from the trio of Sox players eligible to fill out DH/RF this year -- Sheets/Vaughn/Engel. 6. Rodon is going to be way more valuable as a TOR ACE than the 9th player in the batting order at 2B, or another bottom of the batting order hitter in RF. The Sox have Anderson, Moncada, Robert, Abreu, Grandal, and Jimenez penciled in from 1-6. They aren't going to add anyone who will supplant those top-6 batters. Meanwhile Rodon was the best pitcher in the AL in the first half last season. 7. Rodon doesn't hurt or slow the development of anyone on the Sox -- he essentially just hastens the elimination of Dallas Keuchel, who needs to be phased out anyway, and when gone his salary will cover most of the cost of Rodon's contract. But if the Sox add a new RF like Conforto, not only will that stunt the playing time of Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, and Adam Engel, but if he's signed for multiple years, it may slow the arrival of Oscar Colas and/or Yoenis Cespedes, at least one of whom should be the Sox RF within a couple years. Meanwhile, at 2B, the Sox also have multiple guys who are in development, including Romy Gonzalez, who hit 24 HRs between AA-AAA last year, and Yolbert Sanchez. Granted, they may not be ready to contribute in 2022, but the Sox still have Leury and should be able to add a cheap stop-gap player. For the Sox to pry away a better 2B, they will have to make a trade, which means weakening another position (or 2) to strengthen 2B. 8. Even though my argument is to sign Rodon #1, that wouldn't by itself preclude the Sox from improving at 2B or RF if they found the right fit. Will the Sox re-sign Rodon? I still think it's possible. I think they didn't offer to tender him because I think if they sign him, they hope to get him for somewhat less than that number, given his late-season arm fatigue and prior injury history. I believe the Sox are hoping no one gives him a big multi-year contract, and the Sox will be able to match whatever offer Rodon can get on the open market. I also believe that if the Sox are ready to match what any other team offers, that Rodon would choose to return to the Sox, because he likes the team and his pitching coach in Ethan Katz, who began to unlock his potential. As for the money, the Sox could cover most of the cost by trading Kimbrel. But I actually think the Sox are going to keep Kimbrel and go for it in 2022, hoping that he bounces back and gives the Sox a killer bullpen to go with dominant starters. Pitching, if you have it, should win in the postseason, and the Sox pitching has the potential to be even better than their dangerous offense. Carlos Rodon would be a key part of that.

I joined July 28, 2003, so I guess I qualify as a fairly early Sox talk member. I'm 65. Been an avid Sox fan since 1970. I switched off the Cubs after they folded down the stretch to the Mets in 1969. Grew up in Evanston, but I haven't lived in the Chicago area since 1976. I owe my baseball fandom to my oldest brother, who died 9 years ago. We never had a conversation on the phone in which baseball didn't come up. He was also a Sox fan, until later in life when he moved to Ohio and switched to the Indians. I somehow remember snippets of the 1959 Sox winning the pennant, though I'm not sure how as I wasn't even 3. The funny thing is, before the Sox won the pennant in 2005, their previous pennant was 1959, when I was almost 3 (November birthday). Well, my adopted Son, who is also a Sox fan, was just short of 3 years old when the 2005 Sox won the pennant and World Series. (He also has a November birthday.) Hopefully the Sox won't have to wait for another pennant/WS until he has a son, born in November, who is about to turn 3!

I'm 65. Was super active on here in 2005, and for a couple years after that, but checked out of most of the rebuild. Been a Sox fan since 1970. Switched off the Cubs after the 1969 debacle. So I have never given up being a Sox fan, just not as motivated to post when the team was not good.

The most interesting thing that I read in that article was Yoan being quoted that he would play wherever the team wanted him to. So, in response to the "if it isn't broken, don't fix it", the answer isn't that 3B is broken, but that 2B is. So it's not really true that it's "not broken." There's no question the Sox would be a better team with Yoan at 2B and any of those other names in the article at 3B, rather than most current 2B options who are currently free agents. Guys move around all the time to make the overall team better. There is no reason to make an exception for Moncada. To provide another example, if the Sox hadn't traded Tatis Jr to the Padres, and he was still on the Sox, do you think the Sox would have moved Tatis off SS or Tim Anderson?

I believe the key to Rodon, as I said above, is that the Sox aren't willing to set the market for him, but they may be willing to meet the market. In other words, we'll match any offer he receives (up to a limit, of course). Given the uncertainty about him, that's likely to be a 3-year deal. With or without an opt-out after 2 years. Rodon might take that, because he can pitch longer to establish his ability to be a top guy, but then be back on the market when he's 31. In many ways, the Sox need Rodon (lefty, TOR when he's on), but Rodon kind of needs the Sox (WS contender, pitching coach who turned him around). I will think it's going to happen until he signs elsewhere.

I'm just going to throw out an idea for discussion that's been percolating in my head for a while. 1. I think the Sox are still going to be in the running for Carlos Rodon on something like a 3 year deal. Maybe with an opt-out after 2 years? The Sox need Rodon, who was their best pitcher in the first half of last year. Not only was he their best pitcher -- even better than a great year from Lynn -- but he's a lefty, which the Sox don't have in the rotation. The Sox know Rodon better than anyone else. They won't do this is they know his shoulder is fried. But I think it was just innings fatigue. I expect he'll bounce back this year and be able to sustain his velocity for longer. Rodon knows and must like Ethan Katz, because he turned his career around in just one offseason. Does Rodon want to ditch that and go elsewhere? To a club that may or may not be a contender? I think Rodon still has unfinished business with the White Sox. I think he wants to win a Championship, and if he had his choice, the Sox would be the team he would want to win with. The reason the Sox haven't already signed Rodon is because his market isn't set yet. The Sox are not going to set the market for Rodon, but they might meet whatever the market turns out to be. 2. If Rodon returns, and Kopech is added to the rotation, the Sox will have 6 starters. Why not use all 6? I haven't done a deep dive into the effectiveness or lack thereof of 6-man rotations. I think most teams don't use them because they don't have enough pitching depth and want to use their top guys more often. Didn't Milwaukee use a 6-man rotation last year? What happened last year was that by the time the playoffs rolled around, our starting staff was cooked. Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Rodon all got torched. Lynn had the knee issue. Rodon lost his velocity. Cease had the strength, but was his usual head case. And Houston was the worst matchup because of how well they handle fastballs, and how hard they are to strike out. I think this year will be better, but I still think pitchers won't be ready for 200 innings. (Can you believe the 2005 Sox had 4 starters who went over 200 innings?) So my thought is why not go to a 6-man rotation to ease the burden over the season and make the starters fresher for the playoffs. If you go to a 6-man, you can also keep Keuchel to see if he has a bounce-back year. His 4th year doesn't vest unless he pitches 320 innings across 2021-2022, or 160 innings in 2022. He pitched 162 innings in 2021, so you have to keep him under 158 in 2022. With a 6-man rotation, you can easily do that. The other reason to go to a 6-man is because Michael Kopech isn't ready for a full season as a starter. The Sox need to keep his innings down. How do you do that without shutting him down, and then starting him back up close to the playoffs? A 6-man rotation is one way to do it and still provide him steady work. The way I would order them would be: Lynn, Rodon, Giolito, Cease, Keuchel, Kopech. Kopech isn't the 6th best pitcher, but he's the one who can pitch the fewest innings, so that's why I would put him at the back. Plus, he's a huge contrast with Keuchel. Lastly, a 6-man can obviously become a 5-man for a stretch if anyone gets dinged up and has to go on the IL. You don't have to use spot starters like Lopez nearly as much. ************* I think the chances of this happening are low. Rodon has to sign, and the Sox have to think outside the box to go with a 6-man rotation. But I still think it's a good idea. The Sox do not need to burn out their starters to win the AL Central again, no matter what the Tigers have done. They should be thinking postseason from day 1. Anyway, that's my thought.