VAfan

QUOTE(TheBigHurt @ Aug 4, 2005 -> 09:38 PM) This is starting to scare me. Is no one else worried with Frank gone and now Carl facing problems? I have some concerns, which is why I posted this thread. But the Sox have to choose between having 12 pitchers to rest their pen, and having the extra hitter to rest Everett along with the other fielders - Konero and Rowand and Pods, especially. Blum can't play several positions at once. We may have to ride it out for the next month seeing Timo in the lineup more. Come September we can expand with call ups. Fortunately we have a comfortable lead which keeps any of this from being a crisis.

I think Ozzie has been doing some very odd things with his bullpen lately. Today was a good example. First, going to the bullpen to start the 6th in a 1-run game was the right thing. Contreras was above 100 pitches, but barely escaped with the lead in the 5th. Second, why was Cotts the 6th inning choice? The way I rank the bullpen, from the 9th inning backward, is Hermanson, Politte, Cotts, Vizcaino/Marte, Jenks, Adkins. Instead, Ozzie seems to value Vizcaino and Marte more highly than Cotts and Politte, which, based on performance, is absurd. In the 6th, with the bottom of Toronto's lineup up, why didn't Vizcaino/Marte get chosen, with either one allowed to finish the inning if they were getting guys out? Then you have Cotts 7th, Politte 8th, Hermanson 9th. Third, why was Cotts yanked after getting two outs? Why was Politte yanked after getting two outs? The result was that Politte had to stradle two innings, as did Marte. Why not treat each Cotts, Politte, and Hermanson as 1-inning closers for the inning they are given? Cotts gets righties out better than lefties, so that shouldn't be a reason to sit him. I'm glad we won the game. But I sure would like Ozzie to manage his bullpen better. This will be his most important task in the postseason, and how he handles it may make all the difference between first round losers and World Series champions.

I'm glad to hear this. I thought the deal the Nightengale talked about would not have been a good one for the Sox. We don't need a prima donna like that who ought to have been humbled by several years in a row of zero production. The Reds were a playoff team before he arrived, but haven't whiffed .500 since, isn't that right?

How many games will Everett likely sit because of the groin strain he got during his pick off today? Remember with Ozzie is always until he's healthy +1. I take it they aren't looking at the DL over this, are they? I don't want to see Everett go down, but I do think the Sox should try to find a way to rest him more, and Blum can only rest so many guys. With 12 pitchers it is impossible, but are there any thoughts to bringing up a Brian Anderson or some other hitter who might spell Carl? They don't seem willing to give Gload that chance, though he's the logical choice.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Aug 3, 2005 -> 10:18 PM) I've noticed that you tend to underrate very good hitters. You did the same damn thing with Aubrey Huff by calling him just a Good player when in fact he's a great hitter (30/100/.300/875+) Now you're doing the same thing with Griffey. There is no comparison offensively between Griffey and Everett. Huff >>>>> Everett Griffey >>>>> Everett. Let's see now. Griffey has been injured EVERY YEAR of the last how many years?? Sure he's dodged the bullet this year, SO FAR. Does that mean he even makes it to October?? It seems to me you are betting the farm on a highly risky player. And I think Griffey has negative value in subsequent years because he is absorbing money we could spend on more reliable players. Remember Carlos Lee? Wouldn't you rather have him as the DH? Didn't we get rid of him because he was making $8 million/year? I'm not suggesting we reverse the trade for Pods, just that there may be hitters cheaper, but more reliable and a lot younger than Ken Griffey. But let's also look at the marginal value again. 1995 ALDS SEA NYY W 5 23 9 9 0 0 5 7 2 4 .391 .444 1.043 ALCS SEA CLE L 6 21 2 7 2 0 1 2 4 4 .333 .440 .571 1997 ALDS SEA BAL L 4 15 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 .133 .188 .133 In 1995, in the prime of his career 10 years ago, Ken Griffey had a great postseason. Then in 1997, when he was still a superstar, Ken Griffey laid an egg. 2 hits in 15 ABs. Remember what happened to Frank Thomas in 2000? MVP season. He and Maggs and Lee couldn't hit a lick in 3 games against Seattle. Griffey sounds sexy because he's a name. He was once good. But trading for such faded stars on their last legs is not the way to build a winning team year after year. It is certainly not worth giving up one of our top prospects. Baseball America lists Chris Young as our 6th best prospect. But he also rates as our best baserunner and best athlete. I'm willing to take my chances in the postseason with Carl Everett if we can't add a bat that costs a whole lot less risk than Ken Griffey. And I believe the Sox will still be kicking ass in 2008 with Chris Young in the outfield and Brandon McCarthy on the mound.

QUOTE(Dam8610 @ Aug 3, 2005 -> 06:13 AM) Well, after doing some research, I came up with comparable stats of some of the best pitchers in MLB from their minor league years. Pedro Martinez: 8.53 K/9 1.19 WHIP 2.40 K/BB ratio Roy Halladay: 5.87 K/9 1.31 WHIP 2.00 K/BB ratio Jake Peavy: 11.33 K/9 1.10 WHIP 3.58 K/BB ratio (hence the comparisons) Johan Santana: 9.41 K/9 1.36 WHIP 2.63 K/BB ratio Ben Sheets: 7.43 K/9 1.26 WHIP 2.20 K/BB ratio Dontrelle Willis: 7.38 K/9 0.95 WHIP 4.32 K/BB ratio Of those, only Peavy has a better K/9, only Dontrelle has a better WHIP, and none of them have a better K/BB ratio. If anyone wants me to get comparables for any other pitcher, just tell me who. I think what this shows is that pitchers actually can improve from AAA to the majors as they mature. Certainly BMac has the opportunity to gain command of new pitches - like a cutter - and he's going to get stronger and add weight to his 6-7 frame. That could increase his pitch velocity. Thanks for the research.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Aug 3, 2005 -> 07:48 PM) *THIS IS WHY HE'D MOST LIKELY CLEAR WAIVERS* Ken Griffey Jr.'s entire contract. Ken Griffey Jr.: 9-year contract worth $116.5M 2005: $12.5M 2006: $12.5M 2007: $12.5M 2008: $12.5M 2009: $12.5M - Team Option - $4M Buyout + $5.5M of his 2000 salary is deffered through 2008 making his per year salary higher than noted. + $6.5M of 2001-2009 salaries deferred to subsequent years between 2009 and 2024 + He is currently a 10-5 player. Agent: Brian Goldberg All this for a player who has been injured almost every year since 2000 and could tear his Hamstring at anytime. His legs are especially fragile due to the nature of his hamstring injuries. Griffey is 35 right now and will be 36 by the beginning of the '06 season. No team will claim him off waivers. Based on this, what does the Reds $4.5 million contribution per year cover? I always thought his contract in the later years is more on the order of $18-19 million, but only $12.5 million of that was paid in current dollars, with the balance deferred. If that is true, would the Sox be taking on his current contract plus part of the deferred money (whatever exceeds $4.5 million/year), or $4.5 million/year LESS than his current contract and NONE of his deferred money? In either event, it seems like a deal the Sox were lucky to have blocked. Let's be real guys. The value of Griffey this year is the marginal difference between him and Carl Everett, who will presumably go to the bench if Griffey starts at DH in the ALDS. What is that worth? Something, but not all that much. Griffey has the worst zone rating of any major league CF while Rowand has one of the best, so Griffey is a serious defensive liability in the outfield at this point. So if we make it to the World Series, we will be weakening our defense to play him in the NL park. Griffey is still injury prone, so there is no assurance he would even stay healthy to make it to October this year. And for that marginal value, we are giving up a whole hell of a lot. 1. Money better spent on a healthy, younger player. 2. Chris Young, who is touted more highly than any outfield prospect we have, isn't he? Won't Chris Young be better than Ken Griffey is now soon after he makes our major league team? 3. Certainty. With Griffey's injury history, we'd have to go into every season with someone like Carl Everett backing him up in case he went down for the year. Sure, depth is fine, but that would get ridiculous, ala Cincy. Be thankful that the Griffey deal appears dead.

Over the last 2 months, Ozzie should try to find the Aaron Rowand of last year if he can. In my view that means moving him to the top of the lineup, either third or second. Iguchi would fill the other slot. That means everyone else would slide a spot. And if Dye continues to hit better than Konerko, I have no objection to flipping them, frankly.

I read on Baseball Prospectus that if they kept us their hot pace, the A's could win 97-98 games. For the Sox to get to 100, we need to go only 31-26. We ought to do better than that. So I'm not worried about the A's or anyone passing us for home field. I do think they will pass the Angels, however, leaving the Angels to fight the loser of the Yankees-BoSox and possibly the Indians for the WC slot. I expect the Angels to hold on to that spot. The result of this is likely to be the Angels coming here for the first round and the A's slugging it out with Boston or NY. If we are facing the A's in a round 2, I'm going to be happy regardless because it will mean the Sox will have won a postseason series for the first time since 1917.

I have no objection to Buehrle evening the score against the O's. But if he wanted to avoid a suspension, then he should have refrained from all the knuckle-fives he gave in the dugout as soon as he was ejected. The message wouldn't have been lost on his teammates without the celebrations, and baseball would have been hard pressed to suspend him without that evidence against him.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Aug 2, 2005 -> 09:18 PM) On Baseball Prospectus' "Similarity Index", here are a couple of the notables on the list: -Kris Honel -Brad Penny -Jerome Williams -Mike Wood -Jake Peavy -Adam Wainwright Tom Morgan is his number one comp. He pitched from '51-'63, and had a career ERA+ of 106 (100 being league average for that season). Dan Petry is another comp. He pitched in the '80s, career ERA+ of 102. Ralph Terry, finally, pitched in the 50s-60s, and also had a career ERA+ of 102. So, it seems to me that they (BP) seems to think he'll most likely be a league average pitcher (that being his floor), with the potential (ceiling) to be a pretty damn good #1 (Peavy). I've really enjoyed their free preview, so much so that I'll probably get the year's subscription. Interesting. But are they making their comparisons on the fact that he has actually pitched in the majors, if only for a few games, or is it based on his minor league numbers? Ultimately I'm willing to rely on Ozzie's own judgment, which may have been puffing, but compared him to Black Jack McDowell. If he's 80% of McDowell, he's a keeper. Since the content is free until August 3, there is no harm in posting the Baseball Prospectus analysis on McCarthy. Here's the link. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/M...7A.php#fiveyear

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Aug 2, 2005 -> 12:33 AM) If you say at the end of your post that you "obviously can't compare AAA to the major leagues" then why did you? Comparing McCathy's K/BB, K/9 and his WHIP to the likes of Jake Peavy, Pedro Matinez, Roy Halladay and Johan Santana is just stupid. If you want to make a comparison compare his AAA numbers to other pitchers AAA numbers, don't go comparing minor league stats to the majors. Do you know of a site that gives AAA comparables? I'll be happy to make the comparisons.

I think Ozzie will keep the call-ups tight so he doesn't lose the focus and intensity of the guys he's going into October with. I wouldn't expect many more call ups than guys who might make the final postseason roster. BMac - I think he'll supplant Adkins in long relief once AAA season is done. Willie - his speed can be a weapon in a 1-run game Anderson - Rowand and Everett could use a few days off, and Anderson could be a sub if there is an injury. Gload - possibly. I don't see Diaz, Munoz, Baj, or Borchard cutting it.

I don't get all the hate for Willie. Sure, he couldn't bunt. But I remember the game when Frank went in as a PH, walked, Willie pinch ran, stole second, and scored the tying run I believe in a Sox rally. In the postseason, having him available to pinch run could make all the difference in a 1-run game. Timo just doesn't cut it in that capacity. Granted, it is a limited skill set, but he's also drawn some key walks. I believe we can do better than Willie and Timo, but they've helped win games this year so I bear them no ill will.

K/BB ratios better than McCarthy's 6.77: Brad Radke 7.17; Carlos Silva 7.14 K/9 ratios better than McCarthy's 10.4. No one. Jake Peavy's 9.98 is tops. WHIPs ratios better than McCarthy's 1.07: Pedro Martinez .85, Roy Halladay .96, Clemens .96, Peavy 1.02, Carpenter 1.02. Tied Santana 1.07. Obviously you can't compare AAA to the major leagues. Nonetheless, for those guys who wanted to trade McCarthy for a bag of popcorn and said he had reached the zenith of his value, I'd say I'm glad KW didn't seem to agree.

If Frank is forced into retirement too soon because of his foot injuries, is he going to get voted into the HOF? He should. He was the best hitter in baseball in the early 1990s even though Ken Griffey Jr. got all the accolades. He should have won 3 MVPs. His lifetime numbers are way better than Kirby Puckett, who was also forced into early retirement. The problem is that Frank hasn't connected with the fans in the way Kirby Puckett did. But what is really bizarre is a total jerk steroid user like Barry Bonds gets way more adulation than Frank Thomas. So where's the message in that? Personally, I haven't given up a sliver of hope that Frank will try and rehab and come back this year. It may not be possible, but if I were Frank I would give it my best shot. If he could play the last week or two of the season and try to get some timing back, do you think he couldn't help us in the postseason?

I'm convinced Jayson Stark became a shill for the selling teams. They kept calling him - he even admitted that Florida was calling him in the middle of the Burnett rumors - to get him to publicly add names to the deal. That's how Cliff Politte got substituted for Damaso Marte at one point. There's no way KW was trading Cliff Politte for a rental.

QUOTE(Dam8610 @ Aug 1, 2005 -> 06:34 AM) If he keeps up his production levels from past seasons (and what he's put up since going back to Charlotte), he should be a very good pitcher for many years. Throughout his minor league career prior to this year, he averaged 10.4 K/9, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 6.77 K/BB ratio. If he can put up anything CLOSE to those numbers in the bigs, he will be a great starter. Granted, he could be injured, but so could any big name that would be brought in via trade. So, when it comes down to it, if Kenny didn't feel there was a deal worth sending McCarthy to another team for, then there probably wasn't. Excellent point. Do you have any comparables?

I've got a waiver question. Since we are last in line, having the best record, are we completely unable to block any waiver trade moves consumated by teams with lesser records? If so, this concerns me. I'm not worried about Huff and Baez, since LaMar isn't getting more than he just turned down. But I wonder about Guardado, who I would still like to see on the Sox, but who would definitely get claimed before we could get to him. Who knows the answer?

QUOTE(SouthSide2004 @ Jul 31, 2005 -> 04:56 PM) It's okay VAfan, you got to remember it's that time of the month for some people here. I agree with the others that you have started numerous topics about not trading McCarthy, but I think you have a very valid point this time. Trading for Huff would no doubt help in the playoffs, but if we were to make the World Series, how much does he truly help? He can potentialy DH a possible 4 home games, and for the away games he would have to replace one of our other starter players, where his defense wouldn't be nearly as good as the starter. Is it worth trading McCarthy for? That's an extremely tough call, but I know when McCarthy does become a great pitcher within the next two years, a lot of people will be b****ing about trading him. If Kenny is to trade McCarthy for Huff, then he has to be certain that a very, very good left-handed bat is our biggest need for the playoffs. Thanks. And to think I'm getting ripped even though I posted that I wanted Huff before any of the guys who are ripping me posted on this subject. Here's my June 1 post. http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...c=34574&hl=huff Anyone who is ripping me about Huff is challenged to offer a post earlier than this one saying the Sox should trade for him.

QUOTE(quickman @ Jul 31, 2005 -> 04:58 PM) yes and yes, what are you 10 years old? How many threads does it take to get points across. In your many years following baseball how qualified are you to provide insight on how good Mcarthy would be? You don't know, its a crap shoot and thats the point. In addition when you build for a contender you build for injuries and matchups in the playoffs. Can't you make a post without trying to personally insult me? Stick to the merits. It is a crap shoot. But no one that is against my point has articulated a plan for how we are going to keep our starting pitching at the top of the game over the next 3 years. Yet you would all agree, I bet, that starting pitching is the reason we have the best record in baseball.

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Jul 31, 2005 -> 04:43 PM) There's a good chance Trot Nixon is out for the year. Boston wants Huff, and according to BP, Tampa likes their package for him better than what the White Sox were offering for him at least as of about midnight. Maybe the fact that they are in the same division may sway them to KW's offer. I just read the report. Nixon has a strained oblique muscle. That doesn't sound like out for the year to me. Plus they just added Jose Cruz Jr, suggesting they are looking stop gap, not long term. And the prospects TB was getting when Manny was part of the deal included Anibel Sanchez, a AA pitcher who seemed a lot more like Gio (who I would give up) than McCarthy.

Who are we really competing for with respect to Huff? Boston? I don't think so. You think if Boston isn't able to unload Manny Ramirez that they are still shopping their best prospects to TB for Aubrey Huff? Is anyone else in the Huff market? Either TB is going to come down in price for Huff, or they are going to end up keeping him. Both results would be fine would me.

QUOTE(fathom @ Jul 31, 2005 -> 04:23 PM) McCarthy isn't better than any of the Oakland starting pitchers. Also, I guarantee you that Jack McDowell wouldn't have done very well at the launching pad that is the Cell in the summer. I love these comparisons of someone being "the next". How's "the next" Mark McGwire doing for Charlotte this season (Borchard). He's gone from LTP to DFA. Of course I didn't come up with the comparison to Jack McDowell, Ozzie Guillen did. But now you are suggesting Jack McDowell wouldn't have been that good a pitcher for us had he played in the Cell? What? As for the Borchard comparisons, I'd be willing to give up Brian Anderson for Huff because Anderson isn't likely to be a key cog for us in the next two years, and we have other guys behind him who may be better. What pitcher in the Sox system behind McCarthy is better than McCarthy? Tracey? Gio? The new draft pick? Would you have traded Mark Buehrle in 2000 for a role player like Huff? (I'm not saying McCarthy is Buehrle, but he's got too much upside not to find out.)

QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Jul 31, 2005 -> 04:18 PM) We want you to leave because you suck. I've posted off an on this board and others for several years. No one has ever directed this kind of talk at me. It has no place on a board of this kind. If you think my point makes no sense, by all means rip it. But there is no reason to make a personal attack. I've never made one against any of you.