Dominikk85

QUOTE (turnin' two @ Jun 11, 2017 -> 02:15 PM) Beer has more HRs this year that Hiura does in the last 2 combined. Not sure they are very comparable at all. Yes. Hiura is a very good pure hitter and also has a good eye but he has not shown much power. 8 hr with a metal bat in college is not great. Now he might be one of those guys who grow into more power but worst case he is a DH with 12 home runs a year and even if he plays second hitting like 15 hr or so is not that special anymore, the time of bat first no power second basemen is mostly over (last year more than half of the majors 2B hit 20+ HR). Now there is a chance he becomes a dustin pedroia type who hits 300 with 15 hr and great defense or even he becomes a 20 plus hr guy and is a star but there are probably limits to his realistic ceiling. I think the chance that he flames out in AA ball is very low and he might have about the highest ceiling to reach the majors in some capacity and that has value but to be really be called the best college bat I think just a good hit tool is not enough, I want at least a 55 future power too. Now I don't think he is a no power guy but with the HR surge now 20 HR is just average and the bar has shifted up.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jun 9, 2017 -> 09:14 AM) Quintana's FIP of 4.10 is really not that bad. That shows he has been pretty unlucky this season and his numbers should improve. 3 1/2 seasons of a quality left handed starter should not come cheap. The Astros are very much a contender right now, and for the next few seasons. Tucker, Martes and Musgrove might be too much for them to stomach, but a deal could still be built around their prospects. Teams will definitely go by fip and not era but a 4 fip is also not TOR pitching. He should get better than that and I do think they should get at least two top100 prospects and more for him but I could understand why teams would prefer a guy who does it with strikeouts and not with soft contact and Homer prevention. I see the Sox getting a top20 guy as the headliner but maybe not a top5 guy like moncada.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jun 10, 2017 -> 12:17 PM) Evan White a right handed version of Cody Bellinger? What does everyone think of that comp and the value at pick #11? Much less power there. He can hit but might not hit for enough power at 1b. He probably could play a corner pretty ok though.

Btw there are some who think that mcKay is overraten due to the two way thing. He probably would be a top10 guy either way but maybe not more if he did only one thing. Statistically he is very good but at the plate he is a 1b and his stats were great but not really better than some other 1b guys (smith, rooker) and on the mound he is very polished but his stuff is not off the charts great. And if you don't think he can pitch and hit in the majors why give him a bonus for that and not treat him like either a top10 hitter or pitcher?

A second first rounder would be a huge advantage in the draft.are there any FA leaving or other ways to get that additional pick?

I think to go first overall beer needs a really crazy season with like a 1300 ops or so. This year he had a good one with a round 1000 ops but for his defensive profile to go first overall he needs to really go crazy with the bat. If he has a season like his 2017 season he might fall to like 7 or 8.

Jerry brewer knows a lot about the baseball swing but he is not a scout and doesn't consider age, position, body projection, defense and other stuff that scouts do. He is an excellent hitting coach but I wouldn't take his word for gospel when it comes to scouting.

I would prefer lewis or addell but beck is probably the third best hs bay out there.

Who do you prefer? Longenhagen thinks Lewis is the best hitter of the 3 but Adell and Beck have more power. Eric A Longenhagen: Lewis has the best bat of the three and more favorable defensive projection in CF. Beck and Adell have more power, Adell’s arm has been down this spring, Beck’s is plus, but I’ve seen Adell mash good high school pitching and not Beck. Seems like Beck is the most risky and Lewis the least risky with Adell being in between.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 5, 2017 -> 07:10 AM) Trea Turner has a 710 ops right now...not nearly the dynamic offensive force he was over a half season last year. Benintendi at 755. to be fair turner missed a month with an oblique strain and still might not be at full strength again. he should be given some time before you evaluate his season. as for benintendi I think he will hit but I don't think he will be an MVP candidate as some red sox fans think. I think he will hit for good average and OBP but his power probably is more like average (20 HR or so). still might be a 4 win player but I don't think he will be nelson cruz bat plus jasons heywards defense as some red sox fans seem to expect. I still think moncada has a higher ceiling but AB is a much safer bet because of his combination of contact skills, plate discipline and defense and at least decent power.

1-1 I take hunter greene. Yes HS pitcher but he seems to be a generational talent he is sitting upper 90s and basically pitching like Strasburg was out of college. I don't love McKay that much. His Velo was not that spectacular and he might be more of a 3 starter. His bat is very good too but he is a 1b and I read reports that he hit a lot better against weaker teams than against good teams. Now he might improve either hitting or pitching if he focused on it but I can't ignore greenes upside, he could become a jose Fernandez or noah syndergaard and no other player in the draft has Close that upside. At 11 I would go haseley first and if he is gone I gamble upside with adell or Kendall. At 11 there is no safe and great pick especially not this year and if haseley is gone I might as well take the upside rather than one of the 1b/DH bats.

QUOTE (Hatchetman @ Jun 5, 2017 -> 01:02 PM) Its amazing how many hitting experts there are out there. Amazing anyone could play baseball before Youtube. I posted the video here before. The baseball rebellion guy knows his stuff, he worked with many top amateurs and some pros.

The good thing about Kendall is that his defense and position raises his floor. Even if his OBP is below average and his power maybe a bit above so that he is overall an average hitter he still can be an above average player. If a first base type becomes an average hitter he is a 0.5 war player.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jun 4, 2017 -> 01:54 PM) I would hate that pick in round 3. I'm not a fan of drafting relievers. Didn't like the Burdi pick last year either though. Getting a mlb reliever from the 3rd round is a good result. Not many good starters come from later rounds.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jun 3, 2017 -> 08:48 PM) Can someone tell me what the issue with Burger is? Is that he goes to a small school? He shows + power, is walking more than K'ing, and and has good contact skills. So is it level of competition? Or that he's not a great athlete? To me he seems like a low floor, but still high ceiling prospect that should be in high consideration for pick #11. I think the biggest question is if he can stay at third. Usually college third basemen are not the best defenders.

QUOTE (bmags @ May 31, 2017 -> 10:32 AM) I kind of take exception to this. We shouldn't rule out all future athletic players because of Jared Mitchell. We have also failed with a high intangible line drive hitting short stop in Gordon Beckham. We just developed a raw, athletic shortstop in Tim Anderson. We were bad at developing, period. But you won't get good by constantly relying on acquiring the high value prospects like Robert/Moncada who are very athletic, powerful prospects with some swing and miss. I would love another advanced approach college hitter, but we can't just draft a bunch of corner outfield/1b 15 home run types. Did they really develope him? Anderson is an ok player because he is a shortstop but his plate discipline and contact is still not good. I think nobody has something against athletic players the problem is raw players with flaws. Btw the cubs weren't great at developing those players either but they got a lot of very polished players. Btw im not totally against addell he has some plate discipline issues but the swing itself is pretty solid.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ May 31, 2017 -> 12:56 AM) Smith's power projects much better than Ravelo. still I don't like smith due to that reason. if he was a middle infielder that would be no big deal but at 1B he doesn't have the fallback option if the power doesn't develope. I mean some of the no power 1B prospects do develope power at some point (or at age 30 in yonder alonsos case:)) but many also never develope it (like james loney). it is also interesting whether it is an exit velo thing or a swing plane/launch angle thing like in alonsos cases who always hit the ball hard but swung too level and now swings with more of an uppercut to get it in the air more. smith won't be a 1 HR guy but there is a pretty good chance that he will be like a 15 HR guy with a wood bat and that doesn't really play at 1B. he will hit and there is a chance he becomes a star and hits 30 HR but for a 1B only prospects that is too many "Ifs" in my opinion.

QUOTE (Palehosefan @ May 30, 2017 -> 08:24 AM) For orgs that have had a history of developing guys with a lack of plate discipline, its a valid risk worth taking. For the White Sox, a guy comes into the system with issues, and leaves with issues. Hiura could be a good pick if he didn't have the elbow issues. Do you draft him and immediately put him under TJ surgery? Do you relegate him to 1B instead? Could do worse with this pick. Evan White is just underwhelming for me. He's very good defensively, but is his power ever going to develop? I would be thrilled with Pavin Smith. He's solid defensively at 1B, and has a beautiful swing and eye at the plate. His power has also developed while hitting in a pitchers park at UVA. He continued his success in the Cape Cod league as well with wooden bats. I think he would be a fast-track guy that could be part of the rebuild in 2 years. I think with hiura it is good that he is a 2b. If he played third or short I would expect worried about the arm more but a 2b doesn't have to throw that far. For position players the recovery is only like 6 to 9 months or so. You could draft him, let him Dh in rookie ball for two months and then have the surgery so that he his ready to play second in June next year. Not that much developement time lost. Imo it is important that they get up the middle talent. You can always find a 1b that can hit some but up the middle guys that can hit are rare. Plus you can always move an up the middle guy to a corner but not vice versa.

I would be very surprised if the top4 are all pitchers. The class is very weak on hitters but I think at least one team does prefer the lesser risk of taking a bat even if it means slightly less upside. Also we will likely see that typical late rising of college players and dropping of HS players.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ May 28, 2017 -> 05:19 PM) Just watched video of Kendall, didn't see anything super concerning in his swing despite a few here mentioning issues, though maybe I just don't know what I'm looking for since I've always had problems identifying a "hitch" in a swing. Further, I think his bat speed and control would help him to negate any swing flaws. The big problem I saw with Kendall, though, was pitch recognition. He swings at way too many bad pitches, which is what led to every strikeout I saw. If the White Sox think they can make him a more discerning hitter, he might be worth drafting. Here is a guy analyzing his swing He has a good wrist snap which gives him power but the snap is out front after he gets extended so his power is only to pull and he doesn't have much room for error. Basically he does the old school swing were you first bring the knob around by extending the arms and then you whip the bat forward really fast like a bullwhip using the hands. That gives you good batspeed but only if you hit it out front. Nowadays coaches teach to have that whip deeper in the zone so that the bat head gets down on plane early and you have more room for error and get the ball in the air to all fields.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ May 26, 2017 -> 05:22 PM) Bryant struck out a lot in college, but he also walked a ton and had immense power. Another gripe I have with Kendall is that he has not improved as a hitter during his three years at Vandy. OPS freshman year was .924, sophomore year was .964 and this year .950. Bryant's k rate was much lower than Kendall though (around 15%)

QUOTE (steveno89 @ May 11, 2017 -> 08:51 AM) Kendall is falling pretty fast due to the strikeouts that will likely only get worse when facing more advanced pitching I wouldn't hate Pavin Smith as a selection at #11. He is a pretty safe prospect and is very hard to strike out. Problem with smith is that he is pretty much a 1b only in pro ball and not manyour coliege forster basemen had success at the majors. He is a pretty safe hitter but the bar at first base is very high and if he only is an OK hitter he is a 1 WAR player so that position thing lowers his floor.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ May 24, 2017 -> 02:50 PM) Any chance of the White Sox drafting Keston Hiura? Seems to be a polished hitter who should find a home in the OF. What are the knocks on him? One of the main knocks on him is that he needs Tommy John surgery and he only played DH his final year so you can not really evaluate his fielding.

I'm not totally against taking a college bat with swing and miss issues but if on top of that his swing might need an adjustment to tap into his raw power that is too many question marks for a first round college bat.

There is not just the Ks but also guys who don't like his swing. Can the sox fix that? I would prefer a more polished bat. The batspeed and athleticism is there but right now he probably doesn't even have the swing to get enough power output with a wood bat to compensate for the Ks (compared to a dunn or Reynolds who also struck out buy at least hit everything hard in the air to Maximize the little contact they make). So you are talking about a guy who could become adam dunn offensively IF he developed elite patience and improves his swing. Now peak adam dunn in center field wouldn't be bad but for that ceiling that are too many ifs for my liking.