Dominikk85

I would sell high on him now. he has made some really improvements (physically and Approach) but still he was quite lucky last year and still is a bad Defender so that isn't a Bonus if his hitting Comes down. his BABIP was 392 which lead the Majors I think. he always was a high BABIP guy but 330 is more realisitic than 390. his xwOBA was 40 Points higher than his wOBA and his projections have him at a 110 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR next year. that is a useful MLB Player but still basically average, he won't repeat the 4 WAR, 137 wRC+ unless he increases his power (without losing much on average).

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Nov 24, 2017 -> 01:18 PM) This is a good idea. When I think of Appel, Archie Bradley comes to mind. Maybe Appel, like Bradley, would thrive in the pen. Worth a shot IMHO. Appell is more of a project though. Bradley had trouble finding the zone and avoiding walks be he mostly had good K rates. Appell has high walk rates but also isn't missing bats. He would need to find another pitch to miss bats which at almost 26 isn't easy to do. That is different from the wild stuff guy who just needs to find the zone. He is very much a long shot right now. Still worth a try probably if you get him for free or almost free.

Mark Appel, former first Overall pick has been DFAed by the phillies. he was absolutely terrible the last years but I think he still has a good arm. maybe the sox should pick him up for nothing and see if their pitching coaches can at least make a reliever out of him.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 23, 2017 -> 08:52 AM) It was more how his body filled out than his numbers. at least that part of the miggy comparisons worked out pretty fast:D.

I would package Avi and Abreu to the Cards if they want them. Avi is good but he was very lucky with babip last year (390!!). projections have him at about 2 WAR and a 110 wRC+ with a 330 BABIP which sounds reasonable. I would absolutely do avi and abreu for Kelly, flaherty, O neill and Sierra and even if the Cards want to Keep O neil and throw in another lower Level prospect I would still do that.

I'm sure he will be offered but I would only trade him if I got a legitimate prospect (i.e top100 or very Close to it) and not a Lotto ticket or some minor league depth guys.

I would try to buy a couple relievers and then flip them at the Deadline. I think the padres got quite a few prospects like that and will get more (when they trade Brad Hand). the relievers don't even have to be super cheap because the payroll is so low now just don't make it too high so that the guys are still tradeable.

I think at this Point we just have to wait how the college and HS season goes.

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Oct 22, 2017 -> 03:52 AM) I don't think its unreasonable to say that trade may end up costing us a world series. One less hole we'd need to fill with a cost controlled star. Time will tell. Never liked that trade from the day it was announced. the cubs traded josh donaldson. those things happen. it is not ideal but everyone makes mistakes. that is not an exact science you sometimes pick the wrong guy. now it is possible that that move costs the sox a ws but they still have a great farm and a chance to build a really good team.

Regarding kelenic it is always tough when picking outfielders because you don't know if they can stay in center. Unless it is a super elite bat usually a corner of is not worth a top5 pick but if he can stay in center that gives his value a lot of boost. Sure if he is bryce harper that doesn't matter but generally if you pick a hs outfielder that high you want him to be a plus producer if he is a slightly above average bat (like a 105 wRC+) because there is a good chance (say 50% or so) that he reaches that. So unless they think kelenic is a Harper kind of bat they key is probably wether they think he can stay in center. If he can he is probably a good pick at 4 if not not so much.

If Turang is off the board and Singer falls I could also see the Sox going for singer. Sox need some hitting but they have a great history in developing pitchers and getting a potential ace is nice and you could always trade for a bat. Yeah ideally you take the great up the middle prospect but if no relatively "safe" (which is relative of course as there is no totally safe draft pick) great up the middle prospect is available and they have to chose between a good corner bat and a talented but high risk up the middle prospect they might go pitcher and use the strength of their player developement system.

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 2, 2017 -> 03:11 PM) I think this is the earliest I've followed the next years draft and what was confusing to me was what has come out so far was just a lot of the players who were at the big showcases and some video, but very little commentary on how they were doing. I think I mistook the amount of video tweeted on a guy as a sign of them being the best, but likely was just a matter of availability. After another average wooden bat summer for Beer, I really wonder with even a big junior season if he does much better than Brent Rooker. The market is bullish on corner bats but rooker fell because he was old for a draftee (either senior or redshirt junior, I don't remember) on top of being a corner guy and not the greatest athlete. If a corner guy is clearly the best bat in the draft he usually won't go top3 but usually top10-12 at least because one team will take the chance. But rooker also was 22.5 years old when drafted which probably was too much for the teams to take him first. If beer has a good final year (1000 plus ops) he will go top8 or so. I think the recent reports are overreacting a little. Now if he has a really mediocre final year he might drop to the second round but even then some team with a comp pick will take their chance in the 30s or so.

I dont love madrigal. Yeah the altuve/Pedrosa comp sounds exciting and he certainly can hit but the odds for undersized 2b only types is not great. Pedroia and altuve absolutely hit 100% of their potential, I prefer a guy who at least has shortstop potential and a higher power floor, I. E a more classic middle IF prospect. Yeah with the new ball we have seen undersized guys growing into power before but at his size there is a good chance he doesn't grow into power and then there isn't anywhere to go for him. I have more confidence into a classic big shortstop type like correa, seager, tulowitzki to grow into power.

I think the priority should the the first pick and not the over slot signing in the second round. Now if you can do both that is ideal but the over slot thing makes most sense if you have a comp pick in the 20s because the new cba likely means less players dropping due to signability issues. Definitely don't sign a mediocre top pick for a second rounder.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Sep 28, 2017 -> 09:05 AM) I'll settle this once and for all with one simple question to all the people who are upset that we'll most likely pick 4th instead of 2nd or 3rd (I think we all conceded the top pick to SF a while back - though this tigers drop off has been out of the blue and sudden) Name the top 5 prospects in the draft by name and position without looking it up... I know the names Turang and Singer off the top of my head.. Exactly. In April it was TANK FOR BEER!!! Well guess what he's supposedly a mid to late 1st round pick now. Trout was what? 23rd? Pick 1 and 2 in 2014 was Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek. Unless there is a Harper, Bryant, etc. at the top there are very few sure guys. From what I understand there are MANY solid players in this draft with no real standout. I wouldn't be surprised if the top pick 3 years from now was from someone who picked 10-20.. Let's look at the top prospects in all of baseball... Torres - signed Robles - signed Vlad Jr - signed Eloy - signed Acuna - signed Rodgers - 1st (3rd) Tucker - 1st (5th) Senzel - 1st (2nd) Kopech - 1st 33rd) Buehler 24 Honeywell 72 Brinson 29 My point? You have to trust our scouts ... This isn't the NBA where one player like Lebron wins you a championship. This isn't like NFL and NBA where a likely consensus top 3 guy is a guarantee.. the 1st round and top picks are littered with injuries and burn outs... if there is something to get bent out of shape about it is that our signing slots are less with each pick down... There is no guarantee but a guy like bryant or correa definitely helps if you want to win a championship and you are most likely to get such a player at one or two. I'm not saying the Sox can't make it but most of the teams who succeeded in that full rebuild thing have drafted a superstar hitter (astros - correa, cubs - bryant, nats - harper). The Sox currently lack such a hitter, maybe moncada, Robert or jiminez can become that but that is speculation. Now you can win a championships without that 6 war player (Royals) but it definitely is easier if you have that guy.

The picture will get much clearer after the college season. I think there likely will be a consensus top3 in talent after the college season. Doesn't mean they get actually drafted that Way but it is pretty normal that 9 months before the draft the picture is not quite complete yet.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Sep 25, 2017 -> 01:12 AM) I think that's a stretch but otherwise, think you're spot on. It'd be great to lock down a top 3 pick but it isn't the end of the world or means for this year to be determined unsuccessful, at all. Hell - I was hoping for the top selection just primarily a selfish reason: unrestricted speculation until draft day. Definitely is not the end of the world and the sox system already is in a great place but it would have been nice to "reward" yourself with another top pick. There are stars after the 3 pick and even a number 1 can bust but the drop off after 3 is very real. 3,4 picks(career war) from 05-14 (later ones have not completely arrived yet. 2005 jeff clement(-0.9), ryan zimmerman (36.4) 2006 longoria (49.6) brad Lincoln (0.1) 2007 josh vitters (-1,5) daniel moskos (.2) 2008 hosmer (9.8) matusz (4.7) 2009 Donovan tate (0) tony sanchez (0) 2010 Manny machado (26,5) Christian colon (.7) 2011 trevor bauer (8.6) dylan bundy (3.6) 2012 mike zunino (5.7) kevin gausman (9.3) 2013 jon gray (7.4) kohl steward (0) 2014 rodon (5.6) schwarber (3.1) Average career war to date (slightly unfair towards the younger guys but you get the picture) 3 pick 11 4 pick 5.8 Also more total busts (under plus 2 career) in the lower pick (30% vs 50%). Reading those stats I would be happy with an average regular at 4... I mean the scouting reports of those 4 to 10 picks always read like "Joe mauer with power" but more often it is "adam dunn without the walks".the scouts were not wrong but they describe the absolute ceiling. I don't want to be the hater and the sox dont NEED that pick but getting another star could be the difference between becoming a good team and becoming a championship team. It would be nice to stay at 4 though but falling to 5 wouldn't be that bad as 5 statistically is not that much worse. The worst thing was fallling out of the top3, the biggest drop is at the top, 1 to 4 is a much bigger drop in quality than 4 to 8 or so.

4th pick would be a disappointment after that tear down. After the top3 there usually is quite a drop off in quality plus you lose a million of pool money. Don't get me wrong 4th pick isn't bad but it probably means you are looking for a 4th starter or average regular hitter rather than a star. That probably means turang and singer are off the board and those are probably the two guys that stand out.

Trading avi or abreu could make sense but only if the market gets better. I wouldn't trade them for a pair of 40 prospects or so. Problem is that the market for bats currently is not good, maybe it gets better next year. If they get a real top100 prospect and a solid depth piece either is gone but I'm not sure a team is going to pay that.

QUOTE (Wanne @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 12:25 PM) Oh I disagree...it's really a crap shoot with any of these guys. But having Singer, Turang, Kelenic, Rocker, Gray, Beer, Hankins, Kowar? Would I rather pick 2nd or 3rd...sure. But it's not the end of the world. Honestly...I'd rather see this group of guys finish the season having great success and carrying it over into next year...than wallow to the finish line. But honestly...the remaining schedule after Detroit is no picnic. Sox will be fine... Here is the stats. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changin...of-draft-picks/ 7 or 11 is not a big difference but after the first 2-3 there is the biggest drop off. After 10 or so the level drops of quite gradually. Btw very important loss today. A loss against Detroit basically counts twice.

It would really suck to fall back to 4 or even 5, there often is a big drop off in quality after the top3 picks and the bonus money also gets worse. Really 4 or 10 isn't that big of a difference, the biggest gaps in talent you find at the top. Doesn't mean you cant find a star at 4 but generally the expectation shifts from star to average regular when you go back to the mid part of the top10.

I think the no HS pitcher first overall is also a bit of a tradition thing. Hs pitchers are far away an might be higher risk but it is also that no scout wants to get fired because his first overall pick busts so they don't go against the convention. The last two years the consensus best player available according to most scosts was a hs pitcher (groome and green) and both fell some albeit groome a lot more. Also many teams now like college picks because they get to the show earlier, if you want a hs pick it has to be a fast athletic guy who can play center or shortstop. Maybe that even is a market inefficiency but at a top3 pick everyone wants to play it safe.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Sep 10, 2017 -> 06:23 AM) Those are interesting comments from Hahn, which I had not seen. Thanks for the link. Well, perhaps Hahn is going to try to assemble a core of almost exclusively kids. If that is his plan, then the Sox probably will not be contenders until 2020, or 2021. I had hoped for 2019. BTW abreu would already have gone if not for two reasons: 1. The market for corner bats is really low, they currently don't have a lot of value unless they hit like David Ortiz. 2. He might be kept kind of as a buddy for the Cubans who haven't always had the easiest time integrating in the past. I think point 2 is the more minor one but it might give abreu some extra points. If there was a real offer he would be gone but not for a handful of fringy prospects.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 9, 2017 -> 04:54 PM) Just to stress - "Low walks" did not describe Davidson when he was in the minors. It's genuinely surprising that he's walking so few times right now as that wasn't him before he came up. Hopefully this is a step in his development. Problem is that he chases a lot, 35% outside the zone swing rate. He needs to lower that number preferably to under 30%.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 8, 2017 -> 12:58 PM) Trading Jose in any way to "make room" for Delmonico and Davidson would be a very stupid move. If the right deal is there sure, make it. You don't even consider Delmonico or Davidson's playing time in the equation. For a guy that is essentially bad Adam Dunn, Davidson gets way too much f***ing love here. Cool, he hits HR. He's also a butcher in the field and has an .280 OBP. There is more to baseball than HR. I agree. I would trade abreu for a really good offer but davidson doesn't have a good profile. Plus power but unlike adam dunn he doesn't just strike out but he doesn't walk. Low walks and high Ks just don't work in almost all cases. I wouldn't write davidson off but he dramatically needs to improve either plate discipline or contact ability. You can't chase pitches and also miss pitches over the plate at that level.