There has been a lot of talk on fangraphs lowballing dylan cease and being behind the curve. 

I thought it was worth posting a full article that described why they are down on pitchers like cease and trying to reevaluate which pitching prospects are worth ranking.

TL/DR is pitchers like Cease have flamed out a lot more, and they are systematically devaluing them in rankings, even at cost of missing next big stars.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/should-we-adjust-how-we-evaluate-pitching-prospects/

Quote

Cease’s delivery is fine, but very few big-league starters have this kind of size, health history, and delivery tempo. He’s been showing us what he’s good at for a while (swing-and-miss fastball, chase-pitch curve, usable changeup) and that’s useful in the current game more than ever; it probably just won’t be as a 200-inning starting pitcher. Cease actually fits well in the Rays’ mold of the second pitcher after the opener — and, to be fair, he’s made strides this year in terms of durability and figuring out how to succeed with his skillset. Sometimes these types of prospects discover feel later in their careers, but there are enough data points here to point to a hybrid role as a best fit.

 

The part I found weird was when he said Cease hasn't really improved since High School, and that he might be DOWNGRADED in their FV evaluation.

I generally like and agree with Kiley and Eric but find it hard to understand how he can attend a 12K/2H dominant Cease performance and form conclusions about his future command, size (Kiley thought he is 6'1") and ML role. Basically, it says he already had his mind made up and Cease' performance was irrelevant (so why bother to go see him?).

33 minutes ago, Flash said:

I generally like and agree with Kiley and Eric but find it hard to understand how he can attend a 12K/2H dominant Cease performance and form conclusions about his future command, size (Kiley thought he is 6'1") and ML role. Basically, it says he already had his mind made up and Cease' performance was irrelevant (so why bother to go see him?).

Even then is 6'1 small for a pitcher?

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

Even then is 6'1 small for a pitcher?

Apparantly to Kiley.

Keith Law is usually a stickler for guys similar to Cease and Law has him as a top 40 prospect in baseball and definite front of the rotation type. 

Found it weird they didn't bother to quantify their assumptions on this. You have lots of data, both in terms of scouting grades and automated projections, that you can take and cross-check with future results. Why not do that instead of rely on your gut feeling that a certain type of pitcher (great 3-pitch arsenal, unimpeachable statistical production, but no "feel") doesn't pan out?

Especiall with size at at least "average" according to the chat, and the line (throwaway) of Cease sure has the arsenal more typical of a starter, but then the conclusion is he doesn't have good command and i don't see an easy fix available to make it better therefore he's unlikely to stay a starter just doesn't add up.

I mean, just seems likely he finds a new variation of a pitch he can control much better and has two commandable pitches and 2 out pitches.

Basically anyone with current command of 40/45 you'd have to say is not a future starter and just live with that even in face of numerous pitchers breaking that.

I enjoy Kiley & Eric, but their last sox top prospect list was shall we say lacking to put it nicely and their refusal to refocus on Cease reminds me of Law's inability to change on Sale.

I thought everything they said was entirely reasonable. Not necessarily going to be correct, but the argument essentially boils down to: Cease looks good but also looks like he may be maxed out/near his ceiling. So if you still look at him and say he needs to fix some things to be a successful MLB starter, there may actually not be much upside left. Hope they're wrong, but it isn't exactly damning and it's based on actual observation.

In other news, Dylan Cease named MLB Pipeline's Pitcher of the Year.

Edited September 7, 20187 yr by CaliSoxFanViaSWside