1 minute ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

 

It's not a playoff team because you told us so one minute after the first game of the season.

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

You do know stealing bases is in addition to tagging on flyballs, many times that don't include slides. Again, Luis Robert screwed up his 2018 season stealing 2nd during a spring training game. 

The object is to score runs. At this moment one AL team has scored more runs than the Sox. Tampa has scored 4 more runs, but they have played one more game. 

It doesn't appear not stealing a lot has hurt the team.

I'm poking holes in your theory. That's all. Your theory was injuries. I think stats, XBH, etc. + math is a better argument than sliding 50 times a year will kill the team. 

 

 

1 hour ago, BrianAnderson said:

i love the "dont run, injuries" crowd. its so weak. listen i know people get banged up running -- jam fingers, tweak something, etc. ... how is it any different than running out of the box at sprint speed, or tagging up? or running after a fly ball in the gap? 

Hint, it's not. 

Now risk/reward? Maybe there's someting to that with the power we have, but at the same time, can you quantify what it does to the pitcher, the defense alignment, etc. if madrigal, tim, robert, etc are hitting the bases hard every time they get on? 

I'm pro running if you can't tell. Every 5 or so years the league's pendulum swings towards some new metric and they leave the last one in the dust. Me thinks you keep some of what used to work going. No reason to abandon running all together. 

I love the running game and putting pressure on the other team but the analytics prove otherwise.  I am big on hitting the other way and beating shifts.

To answer your question on how is stealing different than the other activities.  Stealing the base is a voluntary activity that requires a 80% success rate to justify the potential out whereas the others are much more "required" regular activities of playing the game.  Stone commented last night on Robert learning to allow some balls to drop rather than dive for a ball depending on the situation in a game to avoid injury.  Eloy some people want to DH for fear of him getting hurt in the outfield on "required" play.  

1 hour ago, mqr said:

They have yet to lay down a sac bunt, as some have predicted for years. 

Good point. I was thinking this would happen as well. I'm so happy that Ricky evolved with his offense. 

26 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

I'm poking holes in your theory. That's all. Your theory was injuries. I think stats, XBH, etc. + math is a better argument than sliding 50 times a year will kill the team. 

 

 

Luis Robert injured himself stealing second during spring training 2018. Look at his minor league numbers that year. Look at his minor league numbers the next season. Look at his major league numbers this season. If he gets hurt stealing second, it would be one of the most expensive steals in team history. And that is if he is successful stealing. Outs would hurt, especially with the current Sox line up when being at first is being in scoring position.

Edited September 1, 20205 yr by Dick Allen

21 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

I love the running game and putting pressure on the other team but the analytics prove otherwise.  I am big on hitting the other way and beating shifts.

To answer your question on how is stealing different than the other activities.  Stealing the base is a voluntary activity that requires a 80% success rate to justify the potential out whereas the others are much more "required" regular activities of playing the game.  Stone commented last night on Robert learning to allow some balls to drop rather than dive for a ball depending on the situation in a game to avoid injury.  Eloy some people want to DH for fear of him getting hurt in the outfield on "required" play.  

Unfortunately, stats also defeat this purpose. The more HR's you hit the more guaranteed runs. It's easier to hit HRs when you pull the ball. Hence the evolution of the 3 outcome hitters, HR, K (also tied to pulling the ball and launch angle) or BB. I agree with you but the stats don't bear it out.

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Unfortunately, stats also defeat this purpose. The more HR's you hit the more guaranteed runs. It's easier to hit HRs when you pull the ball. Hence the evolution of the 3 outcome hitters, HR, K (also tied to pulling the ball and launch angle) or BB. I agree with you but the stats don't bear it out.

I understand but I wonder if putting men on base and running up a pitcher's pitch count is adequately reflected in the models.  Most teams don't have 6-8 guys in a lineup capable of hitting 20 bombs in a normal year(4+ at 30+).  I can't believe having a lot of one or two guys on and no outs causes you to score less.  Now if a lineup has one or two power guys, I understand them not doing so but we have several guys who can hit it out opposite field and seem to stay on the ball better.  

Jack Nicklaus was once told his swing nearly fit the perfect swing model.  Supposedly he suggested they look at their model.

10 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Luis Robert injured himself stealing second during spring training 2018. Look at his minor league numbers that year. Look at his minor league numbers the next season. Look at his major league numbers this season. If he gets hurt stealing second, it would be one of the most expensive steals in team history. And that is if he is successful stealing. Outs would hurt, especially with the current Sox line up when being at first is being in scoring position.

You would not make a debate team. Are you saying his injury stealing a base is a cause and effect of his entire two year results? I mean ... 

I'm going with the angle then that he was one year more comfortable in US culture away from Cuba. in 2018 he missed his home cooking, but in 2019 he found out he really enjoyed Applebee's therefore his numbers exploded! 

Grasping at straws. 

Like i said i can respect the analytics, XBH, CS vs. stolen base %, etc. etc. But let's not go making assumptions. He's also super young - his progress isn't going to be linear at his age ... blaming 2018 or glorifying 2019 stats based on an event is all conjecture. 

 

Analytics won't support stolen bases and/or bunting into the empty side of a shift. I however disagree - not with the math. i get that math and trust it. I think that having that trick in the bag applies pressure that can't be necessarily calculated into the math. Just like pitchers have different comfort out of the stretch or not, i think having a guy that distracts and causes pickoff attempts can disrupt a pitchers rhythm and comfort. I also think having that threat also changes the defensive settings, sometimes taking them out of double play position. Likewise i think if more bunts were executed to a completely empty right side, enough to force an offense to shift back, then you may also have an advantage. 

2 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

You would not make a debate team. Are you saying his injury stealing a base is a cause and effect of his entire two year results? I mean ... 

I'm going with the angle then that he was one year more comfortable in US culture away from Cuba. in 2018 he missed his home cooking, but in 2019 he found out he really enjoyed Applebee's therefore his numbers exploded! 

Grasping at straws. 

Like i said i can respect the analytics, XBH, CS vs. stolen base %, etc. etc. But let's not go making assumptions. He's also super young - his progress isn't going to be linear at his age ... blaming 2018 or glorifying 2019 stats based on an event is all conjecture. 

 

Analytics won't support stolen bases and/or bunting into the empty side of a shift. I however disagree - not with the math. i get that math and trust it. I think that having that trick in the bag applies pressure that can't be necessarily calculated into the math. Just like pitchers have different comfort out of the stretch or not, i think having a guy that distracts and causes pickoff attempts can disrupt a pitchers rhythm and comfort. I also think having that threat also changes the defensive settings, sometimes taking them out of double play position. Likewise i think if more bunts were executed to a completely empty right side, enough to force an offense to shift back, then you may also have an advantage. 

He had a hand injury. It zapped his power. 

The one guy on this team I want to see running a lot now that he's back is Madrigal. 

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

It's not a playoff team because you told us so one minute after the first game of the season.

You've got the wrong Yermin you ding-bat.