How did the Mariners win 90 games last year? Is there a lesson for the White Sox?

[VAfan]

Has anyone done a breakdown of the 2021 Seattle Mariners? 

They went 90-72, but their run differential of -51 runs should have left them at 76-86!  So they were 14 games better than where they should have been.

The Sox?  93-69, with an expected 97-65 record.  

I was looking at Stathead baseball, part of Baseball Reference, on the White Sox scoring and leads summary.  I was thinking about whether a better bullpen might improve the Sox' record.

In Stathead, there's a chart for Inning-by-inning W-L record.  You can see the team record when ahead, tied, or behind by inning.  The Sox record didn't look very good, so I started searching for a comparison.  I first looked at the Tampa Bay Rays.  But then I found the Seattle Mariners!! 

Look at this chart.  

Tied	Sox	Mariners	Rays
6th	11.-15	15-9	18-15
7th	5.-14	16-6	13-10
8th	5.-13	18-5	13-12
9th	5.-8	14-4	8.-17
10th	5.-6	13-7	7.-12
11th	1.-0	4.-2	2.-6
12th	XX	0-1	1.-1

The White Sox had a losing record when tied in the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th, then went 1-0 when tied entering the 11th.

The Rays had a winning record when tied beginning the 6th, 7th, and 8th, but losing records for the 9th, 10th, and 11th, with a 1-1 record to start the 12th.

But the Mariners?  Winning records when tied from the 6th-11th, with a 0-1 record to start the 12th.   And these weren't just slightly over .500 records like the Rays.  The Mariners won a very hefty percentage of their games when tied in the 6th inning or later.  

Now one note should be added here.  You can't total the columns.  If a team is tied after the 6th but wins the game, that goes down in the ledger. But if no one scores in the 6th, that same game will be tied in the 7th.  And so forth.  So there is some carryover going on here. 

Still, combined with the skewed expected W-L numbers, it seems curious to me. 

Is there any kind of lesson here?  

Is there any chance that an improved bullpen could improve the Sox' record when tied late in games?  Interestingly, the Sox had a better record than the Mariners when ahead from the 6th inning on.  But they also won a lot fewer games than Seattle when behind from the 6th inning on.  This is shown in the 42 comeback wins for Seattle v. 32 for the Sox.  (The Rays had 46).

So, if the Sox and their bullpen did well with leads, why did they do so poorly with late ties?   The Sox did much better percentage-wise in 2020.  

I don't have the answers, but I'm putting this here to see if anyone does. 

Edited March 31, 2022 by VAfan

[MackowiakYakYak]

I’d be interested to see who was used in these tie games for the Sox. I have the feeling TLR wasn’t overly aggressive with using the big arms outside their standard inning. Also the late inning guys (minus the Aussie) were fairly mediocre to start the year. That’s why we had to at the very least get Tepera.

[CentralChamps21]

21 minutes ago, VAfan said:

So, if the Sox and their bullpen did well with leads, why did they do so poorly with late ties?   The Sox did much better percentage-wise in 2020.  

I don't have the answers, but I'm putting this here to see if anyone does. 

My recollection from last season is that the offense destroyed starting pitching but blew chunks once opposing relievers got into the game, so if the game was tied the bullpen, even though they were very good, was eventually going to lose the game.

[chw42]

23 minutes ago, VAfan said:

Has anyone done a breakdown of the 2021 Seattle Mariners? 

They went 90-72, but their run differential of -51 runs should have left them at 76-86!  So they were 14 games better than where they should have been.

The Sox?  93-69, with an expected 97-65 record.  

I was looking at Stathead baseball, part of Baseball Reference, on the White Sox scoring and leads summary.  I was thinking about whether a better bullpen might improve the Sox' record.

In Stathead, there's a chart for Inning-by-inning W-L record.  You can see the team record when ahead, tied, or behind by inning.  The Sox record didn't look very good, so I started searching for a comparison.  I first looked at the Tampa Bay Rays.  But then I found the Seattle Mariners!! 

Look at this chart.  

Tied	Sox	Mariners	Rays
6th	11.-15	15-9	18-15
7th	5.-14	16-6	13-10
8th	5.-13	18-5	13-12
9th	5.-8	14-4	8.-17
10th	5.-6	13-7	7.-12
11th	1.-0	4.-2	2.-6
12th	XX	0-1	1.-1

The White Sox had a losing record when tied in the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th, then went 1-0 when tied entering the 11th.

The Rays had a winning record when tied beginning the 6th, 7th, and 8th, but losing records for the 9th, 10th, and 11th, with a 1-1 record to start the 12th.

But the Mariners?  Winning records when tied from the 6th-11th, with a 0-1 record to start the 12th.   And these weren't just slightly over .500 records like the Rays.  The Mariners won a very hefty percentage of their games when tied in the 6th inning or later.  

Now one note should be added here.  You can't total the columns.  If a team is tied after the 6th but wins the game, that goes down in the ledger. But if no one scores in the 6th, that same game will be tied in the 7th.  And so forth.  So there is some carryover going on here. 

Still, combined with the skewed expected W-L numbers, it seems curious to me. 

Is there any kind of lesson here?  

Is there any chance that an improved bullpen could improve the Sox' record when tied late in games?  Interestingly, the Sox had a better record than the Mariners when ahead from the 6th inning on.  But they also won a lot fewer games than Seattle when behind from the 6th inning on.  This is shown in the 42 comeback wins for Seattle v. 32 for the Sox.  (The Rays had 46).

So, if the Sox and their bullpen did well with leads, why did they do so poorly with late ties?   The Sox did much better percentage-wise in 2020.  

I don't have the answers, but I'm putting this here to see if anyone does. 

The Sox rarely won games last year when they were behind once the other team's starter left the game. 

The Sox had a 28 point drop-off in wRC+ between innings 1-6 and innings 7-9 (+extras). They were 3rd in wRC+ in the first 6 innings and 15th in wRC+ in the last 3 innings. 

The Mariners were simply lucky last year. They didn't hit any better in the late innings. Their bullpen wasn't really any better than ours. When they won, they won by very little. But when they lost, they lost by a lot. Which kind of explains their run differential. 

[Dominikk85]

Mariners simply got lucky, their pythagorean record had them at 76 wins. 

 

There really is nothing to learn from that, you could of course find things they did well but that is nothing really predictive for the future. 

 

Mariners might be good this year though if some of their prospects do well. 

 

Edited April 1, 2022 by Dominikk85

[Harold's Leg Lift]

[ShoeLessRob]

TWTW?

[kitekrazy]

Yet people hold on to the religion of the game is played on paper.