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Keith Law - Updated Top 50


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Posted (edited)

Will share the White Sox and accompanying writeups. Love that Law considered Bonemer for this, and not surprised on him dropping Smith off.
 

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20.) Braden Montgomery

Preseason 2025 Rank: 38

There’s been a lot of good news on the hitting side for the White Sox’s farm system this year, and Montgomery’s pro debut might head the list. Acquired in the Garrett Crochet trade, Montgomery didn’t play after the draft last year due to a broken ankle, so the White Sox started him in Low A, where he did what an SEC product should do at that level by hitting .304/.393/.493. They moved him up to High A and he has continued to hit (.295/.388/.534 through Sunday), with a strikeout rate under 20 percent. He’s played more center than right, although I think in the long run he’ll end up in the corner spot. He was No. 4 on my draft rankings last year, and so far he’s living up to that potential.

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24.) Kyle Teel

Preseason 2025 Rank: 37

Teel’s season to date has been impeccable — not only does he continue to hit for average (.293) and get on base (14.7 percent walk rate, .397 OBP), but he’s hitting for more power (.490 SLG, seven homers through Sunday vs. 13 in all of 2024) and the batted-ball data backs it up. He’s even mashing against lefties in a tiny sample. I don’t think he’s much longer for Triple A or for this list.

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30.) Noah Schultz

Preseason 2025 Rank: 20

I am a wee bit concerned about some of these White Sox pitching prospects’ walk rates this year, with Schultz seeing his walk rate in Double A nearly double from 2024 to this year; maybe MLB secretly replaced the regular baseball with Folger’s crystals like they did in the first part of 2023. Schultz still destroys left-handed batters, but righties have a .337/.457/.471 line against him this year, and the White Sox have had him throw a cutter more to try to find an effective weapon when he doesn’t have the platoon advantage.

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Prospects not in the big leagues who have dropped out of the top 50:

Hagen Smith, LHP, Chicago White Sox (real concerns about his control, 18.7 percent walk rate this year)

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Other players I considered, in alphabetical order:
Caleb Bonemer, IF, Chicago White Sox

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6385849/2025/05/29/mlb-top-50-prospects-2025-roman-anthony/

Edited by DirtySox
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Bonemer’s gonna be a top 100 guy everywhere really soon. He’s kinda like Aiden Miller last year with more speed. I’d put him in the top group of HS guys from last year alongside Theo Gillen, Bryce Rainier, and Konnor Griffin. All those guys are already Top 100 types.

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7 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Bonemer’s gonna be a top 100 guy everywhere really soon. He’s kinda like Aiden Miller last year with more speed. I’d put him in the top group of HS guys from last year alongside Theo Gillen, Bryce Rainier, and Konnor Griffin. All those guys are already Top 100 types.

The success with Bonemer so far really has me hoping they go heavy on the prep bats early on this July.

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15 minutes ago, Lyle Moooton said:

Law has a good eye for bats, but I don’t trust his evals when it comes to pitching (not just saying that bc of Hagen)

Does he though or is he just another guy that says a player is whatever his stats are at that moment.  If he's considered an "evaluator" I'd expect him to be able to see past the nose on his face at least a little.  

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1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Does he though or is he just another guy that says a player is whatever his stats are at that moment.  If he's considered an "evaluator" I'd expect him to be able to see past the nose on his face at least a little.  

He's always been this odd mix of stats + the one time in person he saw a guy. That's his entire schtick. I like that he puts out a lot of content, quite a bit of it free, but he's just one voice in a big industry.

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Keith Law before the season put Vargas as one of the guys he was still in on despite his struggles. Was a good call at a tough time to make that call. 

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Law does some scouting himself, but mostly he gathers and accumulates information and opinions from sources throughout the league; Getz was his Sox source in the Hahn years.

My main wish for 2024 draft was to not draft a pitcher, especially Smith, who looked like a reliever to me (didn’t pitch deep into games in college, among other reasons).  I hope I’m wrong about Smith and certainly could be.  But the walks are troubling.

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