Law:

30:  Montgomery
44:  Bonemer
58:  Smith
66:  Carlson
95:  Schultz

List

Good sign here.  Law is better with positional prospects than pitching prospects IMO and he appears to be on the high end for Braden and Carlson.

I’m not sure what I should/allowed to post.  But

“Carlson is an electric defender at shortstop with an 80 arm and surprising power for someone who has barely begun to fill out his frame, coming into pro ball with a high floor thanks to that combination and the upside of a frequent All-Star if the White Sox can help him get to more contact with some swing changes.”

Law List Athletic

1 hour ago, GreenSox said:

I’m not sure what I should/allowed to post.  But

“Carlson is an electric defender at shortstop with an 80 arm and surprising power for someone who has barely begun to fill out his frame, coming into pro ball with a high floor thanks to that combination and the upside of a frequent All-Star if the White Sox can help him get to more contact with some swing changes.”

Law List Athletic

This is why I don’t get the complaints about the Carlson pick before he’s even entered full season ball.  The defense has a chance to be truly elite and there is plenty of offensive upside including some legit power potential.  At the 1.10, I’m not sure what else you could ask for us.

1 hour ago, GreenSox said:

I’m not sure what I should/allowed to post.  But

“Carlson is an electric defender at shortstop with an 80 arm and surprising power for someone who has barely begun to fill out his frame, coming into pro ball with a high floor thanks to that combination and the upside of a frequent All-Star if the White Sox can help him get to more contact with some swing changes.”

Law List Athletic

He seems like a guy that 1/4 the time turns into a borderline AS, 2 time out of 4 turns into a weak starter or solid utility guy and of course the other 1/4 just never hits enough to make MLB. Not a bad projection at that draft spot, agree with @Chicago White Sox

25 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is why I don’t get the complaints about the Carlson pick before he’s even entered full season ball.  The defense has a chance to be truly elite and there is plenty of offensive upside including some legit power potential.  At the 1.10, I’m not sure what else you could ask for us.

I seem to remember this being an issue with Zach Collins, reading that it's a difficult thing to fix, and the Sox eventually couldn't

Quote

At the plate, he loads his hands very deep, creating an arm bar that causes his hands to get a bit lost in back. His timing getting to the zone is not consistent and it’s hard for him to meet the ball out front to drive it.

 

he had a big time hitch in his swing when drafted. hopefully they can get his hands through the zone quicker or he'll never hit enough to be more than a utility player. 

14 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

he had a big time hitch in his swing when drafted. hopefully they can get his hands through the zone quicker or he'll never hit enough to be more than a utility player. 

Young enough to get this fixed over the next couple years hopefully.

2 hours ago, WestEddy said:

I seem to remember this being an issue with Zach Collins, reading that it's a difficult thing to fix, and the Sox eventually couldn't

 

It's really hard to fix, as you're rebuilding a significant timing mechanism in their swing. Burger had the same issue but he made it work for a while. I think big leg kicks are hard to fix for a similar reason.

 

2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

He seems like a guy that 1/4 the time turns into a borderline AS, 2 time out of 4 turns into a weak starter or solid utility guy and of course the other 1/4 just never hits enough to make MLB. Not a bad projection at that draft spot, agree with @Chicago White Sox

Dansby Swanson is a comp for Carlson on the high end and I wouldn't mind that at all.

Edited January 26Jan 26 by almagest

2 minutes ago, almagest said:

It's really hard to fix, as you're rebuilding a significant timing mechanism in their swing. Burger had the same issue but he made it work for a while.

 

Dansby Swanson is a comp for Carlson on the high end and I wouldn't mind that at all.

I hear his description and I instantly thought of Royce Clayton, wherein on the years that his bat carried, he was one of the better SS's in the game, but when it couldn't the glove did the talking.

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I hear his description and I instantly thought of Royce Clayton, wherein on the years that his bat carried, he was one of the better SS's in the game, but when it couldn't the glove did the talking.

He was putrid hitting on the White Sox but still had value because of his defense. Still don't like getting rid of Valentin for him, even though Valentin was just about done.

3 minutes ago, almagest said:

He was putrid hitting on the White Sox but still had value because of his defense. Still don't like getting rid of Valentin for him, even though Valentin was just about done.

Yeah, I don't even mean it as a real comp, but more of the poster child for a stud defender that you hope his bat catches up with.

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yeah, I don't even mean it as a real comp, but more of the poster child for a stud defender that you hope his bat catches up with.

If the median outcome is Royce Clayton that's a pretty good trade chip, or super utility defense guy. I'd be content with that outcome.

12 minutes ago, almagest said:

If the median outcome is Royce Clayton that's a pretty good trade chip, or super utility defense guy. I'd be content with that outcome.

I wouldn't be; we'll never get anywhere if high draft choices can't hit.  We need solid regulars, if not all stars.  William Bergola is a really good defender.

Defensive SSs aren't that hard to find.  Ones that can hit are.

32 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

I wouldn't be; we'll never get anywhere if high draft choices can't hit.  We need solid regulars, if not all stars.  William Bergola is a really good defender.

Defensive SSs aren't that hard to find.  Ones that can hit are.

Average WAR for the 10th pick in the draft is ~5.5. Clayton had 19.5 bWAR/18.2 fWAR. He would be a great outcome for Carlson.

1 hour ago, almagest said:

He was putrid hitting on the White Sox but still had value because of his defense. Still don't like getting rid of Valentin for him, even though Valentin was just about done.

I still remember someone describing that exchange as the White Sox replacing a guy who would run through a wall for his teammates with a guy who complained about them putting a wall there.

6 hours ago, almagest said:

Average WAR for the 10th pick in the draft is ~5.5. Clayton had 19.5 bWAR/18.2 fWAR. He would be a great outcome for Carlson.

Ending up with an average of average is fine; but the goal of a first round pick isn’t to draft an average player.  One year you might draft Fulmer….later that is counter-balanced with Crochet and the math says average.   I’ll take a Fulmer and Crochet over 2 Royce Claytons any day.   
Now we need the offsets for Collins, Burger, Madrigal, Vaughn, Gonzalez, Kelley (paid like a 1R pick) etc.

9 hours ago, GreenSox said:

Ending up with an average of average is fine; but the goal of a first round pick isn’t to draft an average player.  One year you might draft Fulmer….later that is counter-balanced with Crochet and the math says average.   I’ll take a Fulmer and Crochet over 2 Royce Claytons any day.   
Now we need the offsets for Collins, Burger, Madrigal, Vaughn, Gonzalez, Kelley (paid like a 1R pick) etc.

You got to the point in the end.  It isn't a "choice" of drafting a star.  Even drafting in the middle of the first round isn't a promise that you will get a starter, let alone a star, and you even put a great list of busts together to prove the point.  You can go through most teams 1st round picks and find this out.  If the Sox get a no bat, defensive whiz out of Billy Carlson at pick 10, they did their job, and came out ahead of expected results.