2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

But that is not guaranteed. Facing their best hitters in the first inning is. Rotation does have to face them, but not right away with no outs. Saving Grant Taylor for "high leverage" situations with the 2026 White Sox is silly. Facing the top of their line up 60 or 70 times is way more high leveraged than he would get slotted anywhere else with this team.

No it's not. Leverage is about the outs given impact on the games expected result.

People either need to use a different word or stop misrepresenting what leverage is.

You even said it's smarter to use your best reliever as an opener than it is to pay a starting pitcher 150 million. I honestly have no idea what anyone is talking about here. It's obviously much better to have a great starting pitcher than it is to have to use your best relief pitcher in the 1st inning.

Using Taylor in the 1st versus in the 7th does not absolve your need to complete the innings in between. All it does is completely remove the flexibility you had with Taylor previously.

And yes, it's absolutely guaranteed that the teams 1-3 hitters will come up again. The highest leverage situations aren't always verse the top 3 hitters in the lineup either.

Edited Tuesday at 04:00 PM4 days by Look at Ray Ray Run

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No it's not. Leverage is about the outs given impact on the games expected result.

People either need to use a different word or stop misrepresenting what leverage is.

You even said it's smarter to use your best reliever as an opener than it is to pay a starting pitcher 150 million. I honestly have no idea what anyone is talking about here. It's obviously much better to have a great starting pitcher than it is to have to use your best relief pitcher in the 1st inning.

Using Taylor in the 1st versus in the 7th does not absolve your need to complete the innings in between. All it does is completely remove the flexibility you had with Taylor previously.

And yes, it's absolutely guaranteed that the teams 1-3 hitters will come up again. The highest leverage situations aren't always verse the top 3 hitters in the lineup either.

I like the idea of him facing the opponents top 3 hitters, also setting the stage for mediocre starters as they don't have to face the opponents best hitters until 4 or 5 of their lesser hitters bat. And if its a lefty following, puts the opposing manager on the spot early with match ups. If the White Sox had a quality rotation, I'd agree with you, but this is one way to make the most out of mediocrity at best. As mentioned, a dud like Burke had an ERA under 3 last year when he followed an opener.

17 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

While true to some degree, Matt Thornton comes to mind, those that are overwhelming in the 7th and 8th, should still be overwhelming in the 9th. And it does help the starters. Burke's ERA last year with an opener was under 3.00 and he sucked. The one reason why this idea won't take off is a dominating closer's ego might be crushed if he didn't get wins or saves. If I were the Dodgers though, I think it's a way better option than spending 150 million a year on starting pitchers.

If you want to look at what an actual optimal usage of an arm looks like, look at Andrew Miller from about 2014-2017. That's how you don't let the inning tie down the usage, and focus solely on optimizing for leverage.

It's also fascinating to me that you haven't put together that blindly using a pitcher in the 9th inning (which you call out as bad practice) is the exact same thing as using a pitcher blindly in the 1st. The difference between is at least with the 9th you've guaranteed it is high-ish leverage and winnable.

This will be my last comment on this as I've been going on about this for a few days. If you want to argue this is good for development or etc, fine. Arguing it's optimal for winning games is factually incorrect.

As for the below, my guy. Just pull the starter earlier then! There is zero data that says 1-3 have better success in the 1st inning than later innings. The reason you see the most runs scored in the first inning is because it's the ONLY inning where both teams are guaranteed to have their 1-3 bat.

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I like the idea of him facing the opponents top 3 hitters, also setting the stage for mediocre starters as they don't have to face the opponents best hitters until 4 or 5 of their lesser hitters bat. And if its a lefty following, puts the opposing manager on the spot early with match ups. If the White Sox had a quality rotation, I'd agree with you, but this is one way to make the most out of mediocrity at best. As mentioned, a dud like Burke had an ERA under 3 last year when he followed an opener.

Edited Tuesday at 04:07 PM4 days by Look at Ray Ray Run

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

If you want to look at what an actual optimal usage of an arm looks like, look at Andrew Miller from about 2014-2017. That's how you don't let the inning tie down the usage, and focus solely on optimizing for leverage.

It's also fascinating to me that you haven't put together that blindly using a pitcher in the 9th inning (which you call out as bad practice) is the exact same thing as using a pitcher blindly in the 1st. The difference between is at least with the 9th you've guaranteed it is high-ish leverage and winnable.

This will be my last comment on this as I've been going on about this for a few days. If you want to argue this is good for development or etc, fine. Arguing it's optimal for winning games is factually incorrect.

This is a big point. the KNOWLEDGE of what is already happened, and what the current situation is in a game should dictate usage.

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is a big point. the KNOWLEDGE of what is already happened, and what the current situation is in a game should dictate usage.

A teams best 3 hitters are coming up. You are the manager. Do you want Grant Taylor or Eric Fedde facing them?

Also, its always good to shut down the opposition in the 1st inning as the team that scores first wins between 60%-70% of the time.

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

A teams best 3 hitters are coming up. You are the manager. Do you want Grant Taylor or Eric Fedde facing them?

A teams best hitters are going to come up 4 times in a game. Do you want them to face your best pitcher with the score 0-0, winning 10-0, losing 10-0, or up 4-3 with the bases loaded in the 7th?

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

A teams best hitters are going to come up 4 times in a game. Do you want them to face your best pitcher with the score 0-0, winning 10-0, losing 10-0, or up 4-3 with the bases loaded in the 7th?

But maybe not all 3 in an inning. And you don't know how the game will go, and what the circumstances would be late in a game. Chances are with this team, there aren't going to be many high leveraged moments. This way you know exactly who he will be facing.

Edited Tuesday at 04:18 PM4 days by Dick Allen

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

But maybe not all 3 in an inning.

And maybe we lose the game anyway, and then the pitcher isn't available when we could have really used him most.

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

And maybe we lose the game anyway, and then the pitcher isn't available when we could have really used him most.

Taylor pitched the 6th and 7th innings before he began "starting:. Sox lost both. One they weren't in it anyway, the other Sir Anthony blew it. 2-1 when he "starts". I'd rather he waste vlad's first AB. Of course there will be games it doesn't work, just like there will be games it didn't work if he was pitching late, and garbage appearances because games haven't been close for a while. No garbage appearances when he opens.

23 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Taylor pitched the 6th and 7th innings before he began "starting:. Sox lost both. One they weren't in it anyway, the other Sir Anthony blew it. 2-1 when he "starts". I'd rather he waste vlad's first AB. Of course there will be games it doesn't work, just like there will be games it didn't work if he was pitching late, and garbage appearances because games haven't been close for a while. No garbage appearances when he opens.

No, it is worse because you don't know which ones are garbage appearances when he starts, because you need everyone else after him to hold their weight, including the inferior relievers you are now putting into high leverage.

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

No, it is worse because you don't know which ones are garbage appearances when he starts, because you need everyone else after him to hold their weight, including the inferior relievers you are now putting into high leverage.

It may eventually be classified a garbage appearance, but certainly not at the time he takes the mound.

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It may eventually be classified a garbage appearance, but certainly not at the time he takes the mound.

That's the entire point. You have no idea when you use him, versus when you use him later in the game, you have a MUCH better idea of situational awareness.