First up we'll do Sam Antonacci, who god bless him, is looking like at worst a super utility guy, most times a rare, valuable plus bat that can play 2B and corner OF. He started his college career with Heartland Community College a D2 school, promptly racked up a POTY, transferred to Coastal Carolina, slashed a fun 367/.523/.504 and was drafted in the 5th round by the Sox in the 2024 MLB Draft. Preseason, he wasn't that highly regarded on most Sox lists, but was noted as a high floor guy by Fangraphs in their writeup, which had him 11th:

Because of their OBP-centered production and a burning intensity that allows them to outstrip meager physical tools, Antonacci seems comparable to Chase Meidroth. That Meidroth graduated as a 45-FV prospect is a testament to him being a meaningfully superior defender, but ironically, they could wind up as platoon partners by mid-2026

Our friends at Future Sox had him 9th in the org, with a similar profile while noting his excellent stat cast data from the minors:*

with a .311 xBA, .391 xwOBA, and elite marks in strikeout, whiff, and chase rates. The long-term defensive fit may still trend back toward the dirt, but his ability to control the zone and put the ball in play while creating value on the bases should keep him in Chicago. It is the exact type of professional offensive profile the White Sox needed to see translate.

Ok, enough about the past:

Sam comes in with .8 fWAR in 208 PA. ZIPS figured he'd be a decent bat out of spring, projected for a 99 wRC+, but so far he's exceeded that modest projection with a 119 wRC+ and perhaps has been a bit unlucky with a xwOBA of .370. ZIPS has reacted and rest of schedule they think's he's good for a 107 wRC+. Sam is the def of a "spray hitter" with a pull percent of only 33.3%, middle 40.1%, and oppo 26.5%. He does a great job avoiding popouts, at only 4.3%.** Sam destroys fastballs, he's 5.6 runs above average already. That's his bread and butter and if you can hit fastballs, you can hit anybody.

Eye test wise we see this, he's a very wristy hitter and that allows him to really see the ball "deep" compared to guys that are full go big lower body load, eg Colson Montgomery. But this analysis is mostly stat focused so we'll get back to that: FG has him down for -3.8 runs in the field, which sounds bad, but is fairly benign for a rookie convert. For example Vaughn was -28 his convert year and Sam isn't going to approach that. Let's look at his statcast profile:

78th percentile spring speed is excellent: FG has him for -.1 runs below average on the bases, which makes sense given he's been picked off a bunch and done other stupid stuff. He's fast, but he needs to be a bit smarter to fully unlock the value. His rolling xwOBA has been closer to league average or slightly better the last two weeks, but 50 games into his career, he's an elite bat to ball guy -- really no two ways about it. Things can change, but usually when a guy passes the eye test and metrics test like this for even a couple months when the regression happens they will figure it out and Sam has an athletic profile that belies his relative unassuming appearance. The arm grade surprised me but makes sense and that will play at 2B.

Who could you comp Sam to? I see some Ray Durham with less pop (for now). Ray had a long and productive career, I'm sure Sam and us fans would love 2/3 of that 34 career bWAR for Ray. Or if you want a white guy we'll go with rich man's Craig Grabeck.

______________________________________________________________________

*Good job guys

**I'm going to make up a new stat here, it's gonna be called "BIF", which is barrels to infield flies / popups. So far Sam has 11 barrels and 8 popouts so by my math that's a BIF of 1.375. For comparison, Mune has a BIF of 1.92, Vargas has a BIF of 1, Colson has a BIF of .49, Quero has a BIF of ∞ despite only two barrels he has not popped out. Is it a useful stat? Maybe? Someone smart could run some regressions. It certainly is a good ratio for how tolerable a hitter's ABs are from a watchability standpoint

Gonna try and do one of these every off day for next couple months.

NORTHERN SOUL, THE INTENTIONS - DON'T FORGET THAT I LOVE YOU

Edited 5 hours ago5 hr by chitownsportsfan

9 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

First up we'll do Sam Atonacci, who god bless him, is looking like at worst a super utility guy, most times a rare, valuable plus bat that can play 2B and corner OF. He started his college career with Heartland Community College a D2 school, promptly racked up a POTY, transferred to Coastal Carolina, slashed a fun 367/.523/.504 and was drafted in the 5th round by the Sox . Preseason, he wasn't that highly regarded on most Sox lists, but was noted as a high floor guy by Fangraphs in their writeup, which had him 11th:

Our friends at Future Sox had him 9th in the org, with a similar profile while noting his excellent stat cast data from the minors:*

Ok, enough about the past:

Sam comes in with .8 fWAR in 208 PA. ZIPS figured he'd be a decent bat out of spring, projected for a 99 wRC+, but so far he's exceeded that modest projection with a 119 wRC+ and perhaps has been a bit unlucky with a xwOBA of .370. ZIPS has reacted and rest of schedule they think's he's good for a 107 wRC+. Sam is the def of a "spray hitter" with a pull percent of only 33.3%, middle 40.1%, and oppo 26.5%. He does a great job avoiding popouts, at only 4.3%.** Sam destroys fastballs, he's 5.6 runs above average already. That's his bread and butter and if you can hit fastballs, you can hit anybody.

Eye test wise we see this, he's a very wristy hitter and that allows him to really see the ball "deep" compared to guys that are full go big lower body load, eg Colson Montgomery. But this analysis is mostly stat focused so we'll get back to that: FG has him down for -3.8 runs in the field, which sounds bad, but is fairly benign for a rookie convert. For example Vaughn was -28 his convert year and Sam isn't going to approach that. Let's look at his statcast profile:

78th percentile spring speed is excellent: FG has him for -.1 runs below average on the bases, which makes sense given he's been picked off a bunch and done other stupid stuff. He's fast, but he needs to be a bit smarter to fully unlock the value. His rolling xwOBA has been closer to league average or slightly better the last two weeks, but 50 games into his career, he's an elite bat to ball guy -- really no two ways about it. Things can change, but usually when a guy passes the eye test and metrics test like this for even a couple months when the regression happens they will figure it out and Sam has an athletic profile that belies his relative unassuming appearance. The arm grade surprised me but makes sense and that will play at 2B.

Who could you comp Sam to? I see some Ray Durham with less pop (for now). Ray had a long and productive career, I'm sure Sam and us fans would love 2/3 of that 34 career bWAR for Ray. Or if you want a white guy we'll go with rich man's Craig Grabeck.

______________________________________________________________________

*Good job guys

**[I'm going to make up a new stat here, it's gonna be called "BIF", which is barrels to infield flies / popups. So far Sam has 11 barrels and 8 popouts so by my math that's a BIF of 1.375. For comparison, Mune has a BIF of 1.92, Vargas has a BIF of 1, Colson has a BIF of .49, Quero has a BIF of ∞ despite only two barrels he has not popped out. Is it a useful stat? Maybe? Someone smart could run some regressions. It certainly is a good ratio for how tolerable a hitter's ABs are from a watchability standpoint]

_______________________________________________________________________

Gonna try and do one of these every off day for next couple months

NORTHERN SOUL, THE INTENTIONS - DON'T FORGET THAT I LOVE YOU

http://youtube.com/watch?v=eeb5wEDH458

Grebeck was tiny in terms of height but had a lot more power although hardly any speed...and was always more of a jack of all trades infielder, rather than an everyday player, due to the superior infield talent on most of those Sox rosters.

Exceeding expectations/underdog/dirtbag types is their main commonality.

Feels closer to peak Eckstein than Durham...who was such a dynamic speed/power threat in his 20s.

Edited 5 hours ago5 hr by caulfield12

Great stuff! Antonacci is the real deal offensively and should be our leadoff hitter for the next half decade. Defensively, I’ve actually been impressed with him in LF so far this season. Obviously the instincts / initial reads haven’t been perfect, but I feel like he’s ran pretty good routes and has made some fantastic plays out there. I think with reps he can be a plus fielder out in LF.

It feels like 1 day he was a prospect, then in the WBC and then on the Sox. He is the epitome of the new front office regime and as a 5th round draft choice a true talent that has defied odds to will himself to prominence quickly and efficiently.

12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

It feels like 1 day he was a prospect, then in the WBC and then on the Sox. He is the epitome of the new front office regime and as a 5th round draft choice a true talent that has defied odds to will himself to prominence quickly and efficiently.

yea that's a good description guy they ID'd, figured could handle a quick promotion and is thriving. def a big win so far for the FO and us fans. FV 45 value for both chase and ant looks low now. I think both guys are like 50/55 if you want to get deep into the scouting grade s%*#. In my world both would be like 1.5 to 3.5 WAR types.

Edited 5 hours ago5 hr by chitownsportsfan

I love just about everything there is with antonacci but I don't like him in LF, Sox should try and get some more pop out there next year if possible. maybe the DH spot lets them keep Sam in the lineup most days while getting more SLG in left, I'm not sure if we have anyone in the system who matches that profile right now that isn't still a huge question mark though (Wolkow?)

edit: not suggesting Wolkow for next year, he's still 2-3 yrs away obv

Edited 4 hours ago4 hr by joejoesox

24 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

I love just about everything there is with antonacci but I don't like him in LF, Sox should try and get some more pop out there next year if possible. maybe the DH spot lets them keep Sam in the lineup most days while getting more SLG in left, I'm not sure if we have anyone in the system who matches that profile right now that isn't still a huge question mark though (Wolkow?)

edit: not suggesting Wolkow for next year, he's still 2-3 yrs away obv

Baldwin ? Not saying I'd replace Sam with Baldwin but that sounds like the kind of guy you're describing. I was hoping Baldwin could win a starting role in the OF this year but the injury screwed that up. At SoxFest if you remember Venable picked out Baldwin as a guy who could have a breakout year.

Advanced stats strike me as meaningless when evaluating a gamer like Antonacci or Chase. There is so much more to these players than stats could reveal. To evaluate talent you have to watch the games. And I cringe at the superfluous "non-white" comment.