http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/3487226

Dayn Perry / Special to FOXSports.com

Posted: 12 hours ago 

 

 

 

This week, I thought I'd take a look at ten prospects who figure to be impact rookies in the upcoming season. I've selected these players not because they have the highest ceilings among prospects, but because they're prospects of note who will likely play a critical role at the highest level in 2005.

 

In other words, they'll probably contend for Rookie of the Year honors and confer some fantasy value most likely on the cheap ...

 

Garrett Atkins, 3B, Rockies

Atkins will be the Rockies' opening day starter at third base, and, barring unexpected struggles, he figures to keep the job for the entire year. On balance, Atkins' minor league numbers have been strong (save for a down year at Double-A), but the Rockies' system is one of the most hitter-friendly in the game. Long-term, he's merely keeping Ian Stewart's position warm for him, but in the near term, reasonable promise as a hitter plus Coors Field should equal strong superficial, unadjusted numbers for Atkins.

 

Long-term grade: B

 

 

Chris Burke, 2B, Astros

Burke's job detail this season involves replacing Jeff Kent as the Astros' second baseman. Prior to last season, Burke had been a solid hitter for average and demonstrated on-base skills. However, in 2004, despite playing in one of the toughest hitter's parks in Triple-A, he had a breakout power season, particularly by middle infield standards. It remains to be seen whether that was genuine skills growth or a one-year fluke. However, Minute Maid is a great park for right-handed batters, so Burke should put up solid numbers in relation to his peer group of second basemen.

 

Long-term grade: B

 

 

Jesse Crain, RP, Twins

Crain won't notch many saves in his first full season in the majors, but he's arguably the best relief prospect in the game. In 162 career minor league innings, Crain has struck out 207 and walked only 53.

 

Most impressively, he's coughed up only five homers over that span. He's a classic power reliever, with a mid-90s fastball and late-breaking slider. He'll be setting up Joe Nathan for this year, but don't be surprised if he's racking up saves for the Twins in future seasons.

 

Long-term grade: A-

 

 

Jason Dubois, OF, Cubs

Dubois will turn 26 in a matter of days, so he's certainly old for a rookie. Also, his playing time isn't guaranteed, as the Cubs, for the time being, appear committed to Todd Hollandsworth and Jeromy Burnitz at the outfield corners. However, Dubois has likely won a spot on the active roster, and his merits may take him beyond a bench role. Hollandsworth has injury concerns and a mixed record of performance, and Burnitz has glaring platoon issues. Dubois should be a starter, but he'll have to prove himself in limited duty if veteran-phile Dusty Baker is to give him a more extended look.

 

As a right-handed power bat, he'd make an ideal platoon partner with Burnitz, and since Hollandsworth is best utilized as a fourth outfielder, perhaps Dubois is in for more playing time than you might think. What he's done is, in terms of power, knock the stink out of the ball at almost every level, including a .630 SLG last season at AAA-Iowa. He deserves a shot, and since the Cubs have lost 74 home runs with the departures of Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou, the team could use his skills.

 

Long-term grade: B-

 

 

Edwin Jackson, SP, Dodgers

The trade of Kaz Ishii and the injury concerns around Brad Penny and Odalis Perez mean that Jackson has a secure spot in the rotation to start the season. Last season's struggles, which were partly brought about by a forearm strain, hurt Jackson's stock a bit, but his performance in the lower rungs of the Dodger system is unassailable. His power stuff is tremendous, but his control and off-speed offerings need work. The newly re-configured Dodger Stadium, which contains substantially less foul ground, won't help his cause, but right now he's all they've got for the fifth spot. Don't be surprised if he struggles this season, but his long-term outlook is promising.

 

Long-term grade: B+

 

 

J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers

The Brewers have all but committed to Hardy as their starting shortstop for 2005. A shoulder injury ended his season early last year, but, by all accounts, he's convalesced nicely. He has a solid glove at short — good enough to stick at the position — and his bat profiles as an above-average one by shortstop standards. He needs to capitalize on the improved walk rate he showed in 2003, and I think he'll do that.

 

Long-term grade: B+

 

 

Brandon McCarthy, SP, White Sox

It was originally believed that staff ace Mark Buehrle would be out up to six weeks with an injured foot. However, subsequent exams revealed that Buerhle might actually be ready for opening day. If that's the case, then the deeply gifted McCarthy will open the season back in the minors. Even so, once the Sox get around to figuring out Jon Garland isn't going to live up to the press clippings — and they may figure that out this season — then McCarthy should get the nod.

 

He's one of the best pitching prospects in the minors, and after posting an incredible 6.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio across three levels last season, he's ready for competition at the highest level. The Sox, however, will need to be patient. I'm not sure the organization realizes they play in one of the best hitter's parks in the AL, and as such they tend to overvalue their hitters and undervalue some of their pitchers. In any event, McCarthy's shot will come at some point this season. Expect great things from him.

 

Long-term grade: A-

 

 

Dallas McPherson, 3B, Angels

McPherson was penciled in as the replacement for Troy Glaus at third, but a back injury means he likely won't be ready by opening day. Once he is ready, expect an impact season and the AL Rookie of the Year award to follow. McPherson has arguably the best raw power of any player in the minors. He slugged well over .600 at Double-A and Triple-A this past season, and he's shown power at every stop coming up through the system. He strikes out quite a bit, which raises some concerns about his ability to handle major league breaking stuff right away, but he figures to be a special hitter.

 

Long-term grade: A

 

 

Nick Swisher, OF, A's

A switch-hitter with outstanding patience at the plate, Swisher will be the A's starting right fielder on opening day. He boasts a good glove in right, some speed on the bases, pop from both sides of the plate and, as mentioned, excellent plate discipline. In his prime, expect a slew of 25-homer, 100-walk seasons. For now, expect him to be a modest upgrade over Jermaine Dye.

 

Long-term grade: B+

 

 

Mark Teahen, 3B, Royals

For the Royals, Teahen was the centerpiece of the blockbuster trade that landed Carlos Beltran in Houston and Octavio Dotel in Oakland. He figures to open the season as KC's starting third baseman. In the low minors, Teahen was a bit of a disappointment, but a strong 2004 and good showing in the Arizona Fall League have redeemed him. Still, Teahen hit for power at only one stop above the short-season Northwest League, and that was in hitter-friendly AA-Midland. He won't be a bad player, but he also doesn't figure to be the superstar-in-waiting that the Royals want him to be.

 

Long-term grade: C+

 

I think the Sox just might know they are in a hitters park

I'm surprised there's not Jeremy Reed on that list... If it wasn't for Mauer's rookie eligibility, I would lay even money on JR winning AL ROY

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/3487226

 

Brandon McCarthy, SP, White Sox

It was originally believed that staff ace Mark Buehrle would be out up to six weeks with an injured foot. However, subsequent exams revealed that Buerhle might actually be ready for opening day. If that's the case, then the deeply gifted McCarthy will open the season back in the minors. Even so, once the Sox get around to figuring out Jon Garland isn't going to live up to the press clippings — and they may figure that out this season — then McCarthy should get the nod.

 

He's one of the best pitching prospects in the minors, and after posting an incredible 6.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio across three levels last season, he's ready for competition at the highest level. The Sox, however, will need to be patient. I'm not sure the organization realizes they play in one of the best hitter's parks in the AL, and as such they tend to overvalue their hitters and undervalue some of their pitchers. In any event, McCarthy's shot will come at some point this season. Expect great things from him.

 

Long-term grade: A-

 

Top 10 Rookies that will make an impact in 2005. Not in numerical order but BMac is listed 7th.

This was already posted exactly 8 hours ago.

"Deeply gifted"?

actually i dont think Mauer is elgible to win the ROY... i could be wrong but dont think he is.

i think he'd be more likely to replace a struggling contrares than garland... i dont know i just would put more money on garland's consistency than Contrares' streakyness... but whatever.

actually i dont think Mauer is elgible to win the ROY... i could be wrong but dont think he is.

... a rookie formally defined as a player with less than 130 at-bats, a pitcher with less than 50 innings pitched, or anyone with less than 45 days on any Major League roster.

 

Mauer had only 107 Abs last year. I don't know if he accumulated 45 days on the roster though. He probably did.. (I count him up with the big club for 47 days last year.) So I guess he's not eligible.

this s*** worries me:

Jesse Crain, RP, Twins

Crain won't notch many saves in his first full season in the majors, but he's arguably the best relief prospect in the game. In 162 career minor league innings, Crain has struck out 207 and walked only 53.

 

Most impressively, he's coughed up only five homers over that span. He's a classic power reliever, with a mid-90s fastball and late-breaking slider. He'll be setting up Joe Nathan for this year, but don't be surprised if he's racking up saves for the Twins in future seasons.

 

Long-term grade: A-

Mauer had only 107 Abs last year.  I don't know if he accumulated 45 days on the roster though.  He probably did.. (I count him up with the big club for 47 days last year.)  So I guess he's not eligible.

 

Do days on the DL count as days on ML roster? I think they do, but I dont' know for sure.

Do days on the DL count as days on ML roster?  I think they do, but I dont' know for sure.

 

 

If they do, they shouldn't. At least as far as ROY eligibility.

I got McPherson winning ROY personally anyways.

this s*** worries me:

Jesse Crain, RP, Twins

Crain won't notch many saves in his first full season in the majors, but he's arguably the best relief prospect in the game. In 162 career minor league innings, Crain has struck out 207 and walked only 53.

 

Most impressively, he's coughed up only five homers over that span. He's a classic power reliever, with a mid-90s fastball and late-breaking slider. He'll be setting up Joe Nathan for this year, but don't be surprised if he's racking up saves for the Twins in future seasons.

 

Long-term grade: A-

There's more Twinkies pitching prospects from where that came from.

Another little blurb on B-Mac;

 

Here's one more reason to be excited about White Sox rookie RHP Brandon McCarthy: His curveball should be even more effective once he gets out of Arizona.

"You always hear that you can't throw a curveball in this climate," one Cactus League executive says. "This guy is throwing some of the nastiest breaking balls you'll see." ...

Another little blurb on B-Mac;

 

That was something that jumped out at me in his last start. Even though he got hit hard, his breaking pitches has some bite to them. His 12-6 ought to be nasty in Chicago.