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MIERS WITHDRAWING


kapkomet
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This whole thing reeks.

 

Now, he's going to HAVE to fight. Which, in reality, will be better for him in the long run, because with this next pick, he will galvanize the party base, and the long awaited "nuclear option" will come about.

 

Get ready. You think it's been political in Washington? It's about to get 1,000 times worse on this nomination, because it has to.

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I'm not sure which would be worse for the country...a strident, far-far-right wing pleasing conservative sitting on the court or an unprepared idiot sitting on the court. I probably won't know how to react to this until the next nominee is named...maybe not until we see if they're confirmed or nto.

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QUOTE(Rex Kickass @ Oct 27, 2005 -> 01:15 PM)
The Nuclear Option won't be so much an option here I wager. Because there was no big fight over Roberts and no fight at all over Miers, if the new nominee is filibustered, it will most likely be respected.

Bull. If Bush nominates someone who the Right wing clearly likes, they will push the nuclear option 100% if the Democrats manage to pull together a filibuster.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Oct 27, 2005 -> 03:25 PM)
Bull.  If Bush nominates someone who the Right wing clearly likes, they will push the nuclear option 100% if the Democrats manage to pull together a filibuster.

Agreed. And I can't see it NOT happening. The Evangelical Right is spoiling for this fight and are going to bring a lot of pressure upon Bush to make sure his next nominee is more to their liking.

 

And I don't believe for a minute that the Evangelicals really care if the nominee is a constitutional 'constructionist' or 'originalist' etc. They only want somebody who help them make sure that pregnant people other than themselves can't get abortions, gay couples can't marry, God stays in the Pledge of Allegience and the Ten Commandments make it back to the courthouse, and the nation takes the next steps toward being the Fundamentalist Christian theocracy they think it should be.

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QUOTE(FlaSoxxJim @ Oct 27, 2005 -> 09:52 PM)
Agreed.  And I can't see it NOT happening.  The Evangelical Right is spoiling for this fight and are going to bring a lot of pressure upon Bush to make sure his next nominee is more to their liking.

 

And I don't believe for a minute that the Evangelicals really care if the nominee is a constitutional 'constructionist' or 'originalist' etc.  They only want somebody who help them make sure that pregnant people other than themselves can't get abortions, gay couples can't marry, God stays in the Pledge of Allegience and the Ten Commandments make it back to the courthouse, and the nation takes the next steps toward being the Fundamentalist Christian theocracy they think it should be.

Flaxx, I hate this, but you're right.

 

*I* want a "constructionist" - and by that definition, it's someone who keeps the FEDERAL government the hell out of these affairs and puts them back to the states where these issues belong.

 

These "evangelicals" want Roe. v. Wade overturned. PERIOD.

 

I may want it overturned, but not for killing the law itself, but to put it back to the states to decide their own fate on the issue.

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QUOTE(kapkomet @ Oct 27, 2005 -> 03:37 PM)
I may want it overturned, but not for killing the law itself, but to put it back to the states to decide their own fate on the issue.

I'm not trying to spark a huge debate on that 1 particular issue here...but a question...if it were to be overturned, what would stop the Republicans from passing a law at the national level banning it? They've already set precedent by banning a medical procedure under this Congress, let alone whatever precedent they set with the Terri Schaivo mess...if Roe v. Wade were to be overturned, and the Republicans still had a majority in both houses, what would stop them from instituting a nationwide ban?

 

I can't think of anything which would, myself. I think the harder step is overturning Roe v. Wade...once that's done, the Republicans would just need to keep their membership in line enough (and peel off a few anti-choice Dems, i.e. Harry Reid) to get a simple majority in order to ban it completely. Yeah it would face a court challenge, but once the big one is taken down, there's no reason to expect that court challenge would win.

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I think youre wrong about the Nuclear Option passing and I think it has everything to do with election politics. There are enough vulnerable Senators in enough states where this wouldn't sit well... GOP Party Discipline clearly isn't there right now.

 

Five senators would need to break away from the GOP to make a nuclear option viable. There are seven moderates who brokered a deal to keep it off the table. Chafee, a vulnerable Republican in a state that hates our administration at the moment, would break away. He's facing a primary challenge from the Republican establishment anyway. Specter might break away as well. Even Santorum who's seen ten to twelve points behind his opponent for next year may shy away from the fight because it would hurt his reelection chances.

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QUOTE(Rex Kickass @ Oct 27, 2005 -> 09:55 PM)
I think youre wrong about the Nuclear Option passing and I think it has everything to do with election politics. There are enough vulnerable Senators in enough states where this wouldn't sit well... GOP Party Discipline clearly isn't there right now.

 

Five senators would need to break away from the GOP to make a nuclear option viable. There are seven moderates who brokered a deal to keep it off the table. Chafee, a vulnerable Republican in a state that hates our administration at the moment, would break away. He's facing a primary challenge from the Republican establishment anyway. Specter might break away as well. Even Santorum who's seen ten to twelve points behind his opponent for next year may shy away from the fight because it would hurt his reelection chances.

On the other hand...Chafee's primary challenge might force him into a place hwere he has absolutely no choice but to support it or risk fracturing the Republicans who would support him. Santorum is probably the most ardent Republican in the Senate. He won't flop. Specter...he probably depends on who the nominee is. I'll grant you him.

 

But...this also assumes that the Democrats will be able to maintain a united front in the Senate, and we were uncertain if they'd be able to do that for the lower court nominees if the Republicans really pushed. A supreme nominee would be even more pressure.

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The reason Dems seemed to be cracking because the fight wasn't about a supreme court nominee. To be honest, I think the power base in the GOP at the moment is too split and too weak to be able to enforce a nuclear option... and I think it would be seen extremely poorly by a good chunk of the voting popular (almost everyone who isn't on the radical right side who sunk Miers).

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