kapkomet Posted August 6, 2007 Share Posted August 6, 2007 QUOTE(THEWOOD @ Aug 6, 2007 -> 01:34 AM) I think the market still has a good distance to go down. We have not seen a BIG rally since each of these massive down days. That shows the market has no legs. It will be a grind back down to around 12500 where it should find a good amount of support. You were saying? *snip* in an advance that lifted the Dow Jones industrials 286 points, its biggest gain in nearly five years. *snip* Holy s***, that's funny. When you post something like that again, I'll remember to go buy lots of DJIA stock that day. Hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted August 6, 2007 Share Posted August 6, 2007 Well it seems you guys have a nice rebound over there, biggest 1 day gain since 2003. Seems the bargain hunters are sniffing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEWOOD Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 I think yesterday you saw a lot of people taking a play on the FED cutting rates today - which I dont think will happen. If the FED does not cut rates then the afternoon will be a major sell off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 QUOTE(THEWOOD @ Aug 7, 2007 -> 08:22 AM) I think yesterday you saw a lot of people taking a play on the FED cutting rates today - which I dont think will happen. If the FED does not cut rates then the afternoon will be a major sell off. That's not why we saw the runup, but ok. There isn't going to be a cut today, the focus is the language used in describing the credit threat when they announce rates are staying put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 The Fed cannot lower rates without further destroying the dollar. It will be a shift in language only IMHO. Inflation not as important as the credit crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 6, 2007 -> 09:00 AM) I so dislike the DJIA as a measure of the markets. I really wish they'd focus more on the 500, as well as the Russell. They all seem rather antiquated. Why average 30 when you can average them all? Besides minor historical interest, the Dow is just not interesting to me. It is fun to look through history and see who was on and who is off. Who is still operating and who bit the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 QUOTE(Cknolls @ Aug 7, 2007 -> 02:55 PM) The Fed cannot lower rates without further destroying the dollar. It will be a shift in language only IMHO. Inflation not as important as the credit crisis. They know that. They also, in conjunction with SECTREAS, have allowed the dollar to go low in order to create a so-called balance in trade. That's working nicely, not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 So... "remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected." That's the FEDSPEAK for the day. In other words, the market now has a reason to tank again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 7, 2007 Share Posted August 7, 2007 And it rallied off of that information... I love stock trading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted August 8, 2007 Share Posted August 8, 2007 http://biz.yahoo.com/minyanville/070808/20...st_id.html?.v=2 Interesting piece about the balance game the Fed is playing right now. The one alarm is a link to the Telegraph in London. It talks about China using the "nuclear option" of dumping dollars into the market if Congress passes trade restrictions as punishment for holding the value of the yuan firm. China holds 44% of the US debt. If they decide to dump it in the open market, you will see blood in this country that hasn't been seen since 1929-1930 (yea, you get it, we will have at a minimum a VERY hard recession, if not a depression). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 8, 2007 Share Posted August 8, 2007 What a f***ing day! We went from meandering around unchanged early, to up about 180 points before 2pm, to unchanged, to back up 150 points before the close. Forget stocks, the VIX is the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted August 9, 2007 Share Posted August 9, 2007 So anyone's rear end get busted today on the 400 point drop? It's going to be a wild ride for a while, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 QUOTE(kapkomet @ Aug 9, 2007 -> 03:41 PM) So anyone's rear end get busted today on the 400 point drop? It's going to be a wild ride for a while, I think. Too bad it wasn't real money as I put on a 1475/1525 strangle yesterday in the SPs in my work test account. I was up 10K today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 And another 200 points down to start the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 QUOTE(mr_genius @ Apr 26, 2007 -> 05:48 PM) The economy is really strong right now. It should be getting more press. What was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Aug 10, 2007 -> 03:09 PM) What was that? Generally, it is. Except for this cheap s*** credit that only a few months ago was the greatest thing since sliced bread. Now, because people are stupid and don't realize an ARM will adjust ( - hello f'in news flash) the government is supposed to step in and bail people out? F you, Hillary... Anyway, the fed is doing what it's supposed to and making sure there's enough money in the food chain, WITHOUT lowering rates at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Aug 10, 2007 -> 10:07 AM) And another 200 points down to start the day. How about that last hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEWOOD Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Aug 9, 2007 -> 08:22 PM) Too bad it wasn't real money as I put on a 1475/1525 strangle yesterday in the SPs in my work test account. I was up 10K today. gotta love paper trades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Jeez, markets taking another hit today. Major indeces all down more than 1% again. DJIA down almost 1000 points since just a week ago! That's a roughly 8% drop in value in a week. S&P down almost a hundred, an almost 7% loss, again in just a week. Yikes. Funny thing though... the market was probably overbought on fundamentals anyway, so a correction was coming. But it wasn't the fundamentals that caused this - it was the credit and mortgage panic. Funny how the market finds a way towards center, even if for the wrong reasons. I am not sure if it needed THIS much of a correction, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 So how are people who know more than me reacting to breaking through 13k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Aug 15, 2007 -> 02:55 PM) So how are people who know more than me reacting to breaking through 13k? Fortunately, I am a long term investor, so for me, this is just a good buying opportunity on the way up later. As for what it "means", who knows? The markets are a fairly efficient, rational system, but the shorter timeframe you look at, the less rational they appear to act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Aug 15, 2007 -> 07:55 PM) So how are people who know more than me reacting to breaking through 13k? It's still in the area of a "correction", if you go from about 13,800 - 1380 (or 10%) you're at 12,420. People are starting to get a little nervous because the Fed keeps dumping funds into the market to make sure there's enough liquidity (read: money to borrow). Today, they put $7 billion more into the system around lunch time and that's what got the market going down. The inflation reports today should give the Fed a little breather as far as inflation goes, but to me, that's still the higher risk as opposed to the "credit crunch", but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Isn't the correction going from 14,100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 That's right. So, 14,100 - 1,410 = 12,690. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 I'd expect we'll probably hold around this for a while, as long as nothing major happens (read: Hurricane Dean) or the Fed doesn't change rates (although I would say that is still a slim bet right now) before the next meeting. They are trying to infuse cash into the system without cutting rates while keeping an eye on inflation. It's a tough task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts