Total voter turnout at the Wyoming GOP Caucus: 1200 voters. Out of approximately 136,000 registered Republicans in Wyoming.

 

That's a 1% turnout.

Total voter turnout at the Wyoming GOP Caucus: 1200 voters. Out of approximately 136,000 registered Republicans in Wyoming.

 

That's a 1% turnout.

If that 1% was the only percent that was INFORMED about the candidates and issues, then that's all good. If the people can't take enough time to inform themselves about the candidates and at least some of the issues, I would rather they stay home.

If that 1% was the only percent that was INFORMED about the candidates and issues, then that's all good. If the people can't take enough time to inform themselves about the candidates and at least some of the issues, I would rather they stay home.

 

No, that's not good, that's really, really sad if only 1% of the population is informed enough to vote in a Presidential primary.

Every polling organization and their brothers have been doing new Hampshire polls after the 1/3 Iowa caucus. I'm here to break it down for you.

 

There have been 7 polls published in that period - post-Iowa. I will ignore Zogby (Romney +1) and ARG (McCain +12) because of their history of crappy methods, and Suffolk (Romney +3) for the reasons I mentioned a while ago that made it clear they were unreliable. That leaves these 4...

 

_________Concord__CNN__Rasm.__Mason-Dixon

McCain.........35..........33.......32.........32

Romney........29..........27.......30.........24 (Avg -5.5)

Huckabee......13..........11.......11.........12 (Avg -21.25)

Giuliani..........8............14........9...........9 (Avg -23)

Paul..............7.............9........11..........8 (Avg -24.25)

 

So there they are - the post-Iowa NH polls that are worth their salt. I left Thompson off because he's polling 1 to 3% and has abandoned NH.

 

The GOP race is becoming really interesting. If McCain wins NH, as it looks like he will, then there are really still 4 people in it. Any of the 4 big names could still get it done. Looking ahead, in future states (all polls were PRIOR to Iowa), you had Huckabee leading South Carolina (1/19), Romney and Giuliani neck-and-neck in Nevada (also 1/19), and Giuliani with a slim lead in Florida (1/29). There is also Michigan on 1/15, and I am not sure if the GOP elected to skip that state like the Dems did - Romney and McCain seem to be leaders there. And Romney took Wyoming, and its very small number of delegates. Basically, its still a crap-shoot.

 

Lots of NH polls out. Ignoring the usually unreliable ones (Zogby, ARG, Suffolk), just from the 1/5-6 period we have:

 

CNN: McCain +6

Pierce: McCain +9

Gallup: McCain +4

Str Vis: McCain +8

 

Those are all leads over Romney. Huckabee is still well down in third, no closer than 12 points to Romney. Giuliani and Paul behind Huckabee in all polls but one, which has Giuliani one point ahead of Huckabee. Thompson still no pulse in NH.

 

Lots of NH polls out. Ignoring the usually unreliable ones (Zogby, ARG, Suffolk), just from the 1/5-6 period we have:

 

CNN: McCain +6

Pierce: McCain +9

Gallup: McCain +4

Str Vis: McCain +8

 

Those are all leads over Romney. Huckabee is still well down in third, no closer than 12 points to Romney. Giuliani and Paul behind Huckabee in all polls but one, which has Giuliani one point ahead of Huckabee. Thompson still no pulse in NH.

Thompson admitted a few days ago that they're simply not campaigning at all in NH other than attending the debates. Unless something surprises, it's going to be much more interesting to see what happens when they move on to SC and Nevada with this group.

Thompson admitted a few days ago that they're simply not campaigning at all in NH other than attending the debates. Unless something surprises, it's going to be much more interesting to see what happens when they move on to SC and Nevada with this group.

Yeah I know, he dropped out of NH a while back. And I agree that SC and Nevada, as well as Florida, will make January interesting for the GOP group.

 

I don't think that Giuliani will be able to make his double digit leads in the Super Tuesday states stick, because he just doesn't look viable in any of IA, WY, NH, SC or MI. The only January contests where he is currently even in the running are FL and NV, and as he keeps losing, those may fade too. McCain needs more than NH too - he needs a second January win to have a real shot, I think. And Huckabee can't just lean on IA - he needs at least SC to stay in it as a non-establishment guy. Romney can survive 2nd place in NH, but only if he wins 1 or 2 other January states.

 

Still wide open for the Republicans.

 

 

Survey USA polls South Carolina:

1/4-1/6, 658 LVs, 12/18 results in parenthesis

Huckabee: 36% (28%)

Romney: 19% (18%)

McCain: 17% (16%)

Thompson: 11% (15%)

Giuliani: 9% (12%)

Paul: 5% (--)

Other / Undecided: 5% (11%)

Rassmussen polls South Carolina:

Huckabee 28% (+5)

McCain 21% (+9)

Romney 15% (-8)

Thompson 11% (-1)

Giuliani 10% (-1)

McCain needs to start campaigning in the non-evangelical/dixiecrat states. Take Guilinai's primary votes away. Huckabee has the snake handler, speaking in tongues vote. They are a single issue voting block (who is a preacher, they don't care about issues).

 

Even though Huckabee isn't as bad as I thought, he has a ton of absurd statements he's made in the past that will destroy him in the general election, once the media goes on the attack.

I'm not a huge McCain fan, but he doesn't have the slime factor that all of the leaders seem to have, sans Obama.

McCain v Huckabee? With that Southern voting block and evangelicals coming out in enough numbers in other states, we might not have a winner going into the GOP convention.

no, we'll have one, and I think it looks like it'll be Romney with all his second-place finishes. Doesn't he win with the points?

Dixville Notch's 12:01am vote count...

 

McCain 4

Romney 2

Giuliani 1

 

Rudy's response to Hillary tearing up on the campaign trail yesterday?

 

Come on, who can guess it?

 

The Re-pube-licans need to stay out of it.

Hey BureauEmployee171, care to enlighten us all on Ron Paul's campaign newsleters from the early 1990's such as Ron Paul's Freedom Report, Ron Paul Political Report or The Ron Paul Survival Report?

I sure hope McCain can hold on for a few more states. I really like him.

Why is Rudy cutting taxes? WHat programs does he want to cut to compensate for the already MASSIVE national debt. I can understand not RAISING taxes, but to cut them?

Why is Rudy cutting taxes? WHat programs does he want to cut to compensate for the already MASSIVE national debt. I can understand not RAISING taxes, but to cut them?

 

If you cut taxes in the right manner, you actually increase overall tax revenue because the economy is going stronger (I believe the government has record tax revenues right now thanks in part to Bush's tax cuts). It's like cutting prices; you're making less on each transaction, but you sell more volume so make more in the end. If you cut too much, though, you'll hurt yourself.

If you cut taxes in the right manner, you actually increase overall tax revenue because the economy is going stronger (I believe the government has record tax revenues right now thanks in part to Bush's tax cuts). It's like cutting prices; you're making less on each transaction, but you sell more volume so make more in the end. If you cut too much, though, you'll hurt yourself.

That is a THEORY, and it is not an absolute, even according to its proponents. Not all tax decreases, or increases, have the same effect.

 

I actually agree it can do something like that - but its SOMETIMES, with the right cuts in the right situations.

 

That is a THEORY, and it is not an absolute, even according to its proponents. Not all tax decreases, or increases, have the same effect.

 

I actually agree it can do something like that - but its SOMETIMES, with the right cuts in the right situations.

 

Hence the caveat, "in the right manner." Same thing if you run a sale and slash prices too deep to make up for in volume or too little to make up for in increased sales.

So, the next primary is in Michigan on the 15th, for the GOP (the Dems have theirs too, but it doesn't count for anything). The race looks tight there, and the results could be very important with such a wide field still in it. There have been two polls in January...

 

Strategic Vision (1/4-6):

McCain: 29%

Romney: 20%

Huckabee: 18%

Giuliani: 13%

Thompson: 5%

Paul: 5%

 

Rossman (1/6-7):

Huckabee: 23%

Romney: 22%

McCain: 18%

Giuliani: 8%

Thompson: 4%

Paul: 3%

 

I'm a little skeptical of the Rossman one, as they are a PR firm who works for the RNC, and they used a relatively small pool of 300 LV. In any case, its interesting that Romney, despite being from Michigan, doesn't lead in either poll. If he fails to win there, one wonders if he can effectively go on - he isn't likely to do well in SC. Though he may do well in NV, where there is a significant Mormon population in the more rural areas of the state.

 

So, the next primary is in Michigan on the 15th, for the GOP (the Dems have theirs too, but it doesn't count for anything). The race looks tight there, and the results could be very important with such a wide field still in it. There have been two polls in January...

 

Strategic Vision (1/4-6):

McCain: 29%

Romney: 20%

Huckabee: 18%

Giuliani: 13%

Thompson: 5%

Paul: 5%

 

Rossman (1/6-7):

Huckabee: 23%

Romney: 22%

McCain: 18%

Giuliani: 8%

Thompson: 4%

Paul: 3%

 

I'm a little skeptical of the Rossman one, as they are a PR firm who works for the RNC, and they used a relatively small pool of 300 LV. In any case, its interesting that Romney, despite being from Michigan, doesn't lead in either poll. If he fails to win there, one wonders if he can effectively go on - he isn't likely to do well in SC. Though he may do well in NV, where there is a significant Mormon population in the more rural areas of the state.

 

He also happens to be the overall leader in total votes received and in delegates. He hasn't won any battles but seems to be winning the war.

If Romney can' t win Michigan, he needs to hang it up, regardless of how many delegates he has, and go back to selling used cars or something.