I haven't seen any exit polls yet, but the overall polling data that is out there for the last couple days seems an awful lot like New Hampshire. A close race breaking Hillary's way in each of the major states and nationally as well.

 

 

Nothing yet...

 

http://thepage.time.com/2008/03/04/6th-avenue-two-step/

I keep saying that this is New Hampshire all over again, but no one wants to believe me.

 

The 3AM ad was effective. The sad thing is, I don't think I'm kidding.

 

The 3AM ad was effective. The sad thing is, I don't think I'm kidding.

Look at the polls... obama had a 3-5 point lead before the ad ran. now, they are tied, or Hillary +1. Sadly, people are stupid.

I keep saying that this is New Hampshire all over again, but no one wants to believe me.

 

The 3AM ad was effective. The sad thing is, I don't think I'm kidding.

 

I thought he was rolling too much, but now, I think you are right. Sadly, I'm going to have to deal with Clinton in this race for months, continuing to dirty up someone in her own party.

Don't have the data, but rumor has exit polls showing a slight Hillary lead in both OH and TX.

Oh my babe Nora O'Donnell is looking HOT tonight on MSNBC.

*drools*

Don't have the data, but rumor has exit polls showing a slight Hillary lead in both OH and TX.

 

 

 

oh crap

Interesting point brought up by MSNBC....

It seems as though Obama had a slight lead among early voters. So, if Hillary has a slight lead "day of", then it might be a wash. Could be a point difference.

If the rumor is true that Obama is gonna have 50 more supers endorse tomorrow, it won't much matter what happens today.

Saw this in the San Fran. Chronicle;

 

On the math side, it is a certainty that Sen. Barack Obama's lead in pledged delegates, at least 151, according to the Associated Press, after 11 straight victories last month, most of them by wide margins, is so wide that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton cannot catch up with anything less than blowout victories in the 60-40 percent range in both states.

 

On the momentum side, however, if Clinton wins both states, even narrowly, she could blunt Obama's momentum and generate some of her own. Headlines will declare a Clinton victory in two giant states, lifting some of the pressure on her from party leaders to exit the race.

 

Obama's best chance for a knockout blow is Texas, where polls have given him a slight edge.

 

"Obama, to stop her, really has to win one of the two big states. Then the delegate math does take over," said Tad Devine, a top strategist for the Al Gore and John Kerry presidential campaigns.

 

But if Clinton wins both, she is likely to stay in the race.

 

"Even if the math works in Obama's favor, if he loses two big states, I don't think that's how you win the nomination," Devine said. "You don't win the nomination by losing. You have to win the nomination by winning, or at least splitting ... I think it's going to be incumbent on Obama to win one of those big states if he wants the race to end tomorrow."

If the rumor is true that Obama is gonna have 50 more supers endorse tomorrow, it won't much matter what happens today.

I think they are hanging onto these guys until after today "just in case". It would REALLY kill any positive press she got from 1-4 wins.

On the other hand, I'm also reading that Ohio actually seems to be coming out closer than some of the recent polling would have suggested.

On the other hand, I'm also reading that Ohio actually seems to be coming out closer than some of the recent polling would have suggested.

I will concede this:

I think Obama MIGHT loss both states. BUT, he'll win the delegates in TX and be VERY close in Ohio.

His momentum might be slowed, but it becomes "Post Super Tuesday" all over again. With a virtual tie in the momentum, even if Obama still has far more delegates than she does.

On the other hand, I'm also reading that Ohio actually seems to be coming out closer than some of the recent polling would have suggested.

where do you get your "inside info"? Not that you have to disclose your sources, i am just curious how you get this info.

where do you get your "inside info"? Not that you have to disclose your sources, i am just curious how you get this info.

A large smattering of blogs...many of which are receiving the same leaks.

 

The Obama campaign expects to net seven or eight delegates out of the night from winning Vermont… they expect, delegate-wise, RI and Ohio will tie, and Texas, because of the caucus, will be a wash.

 

The Clinton campaign, having recieved leaked exit polls showing slim leads in both Texas and Ohio, is already challenging, in the press, the aggressiveness of Obama’s caucus operation but is generally happy with early reports that turnout in Texas is high.

This is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It's unclear whether this is different pollsters or, I suspect, different times of day.

 

For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

 

The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

 

You'll hear more as I learn more.

Linkity.

First Exit Polls:

 

VT Obama - 67, Clinton - 33

OH Obama - 51, Clinton - 49

TX Obama - 50, Clinton - 49

RI Obama - 49, Clinton - 49

 

LINK

First Exit Polls:

 

VT Obama - 67, Clinton - 33

OH Obama - 51, Clinton - 49

TX Obama - 50, Clinton - 49

RI Obama - 49, Clinton - 49

 

LINK

 

 

That would be f'in sweet, wont last.

First Exit Polls:

 

VT Obama - 67, Clinton - 33

OH Obama - 51, Clinton - 49

TX Obama - 50, Clinton - 49

RI Obama - 49, Clinton - 49

 

LINK

The fact that it is THAT close is amazing. Clinton was supposed to run away in Ohio (recent polls had her up by 4-6 points. WOW! Even if he loses both, that's... wow. Not bad for being down 20 points less than a month ago.

Is CNN Clinton bias or what?? Is MSNBC this bad?

Oh my babe Nora O'Donnell is looking HOT tonight on MSNBC.

*drools*

She looks AMAZING in black...

 

 

Considering the 3 a.m ads publicity etc. over the past few days, I think those exit polls are very good news for Obama, and not so for Clinton.

 

If those results do occur, she's done IMHO (even though she won't drop out).

With the exit polls that close, they are almost worthless for predicting wins (except in VT). But OH is surprising to me - I thought Clinton would have a substantial lead. I figured TX would be a near-tie in the primary portion.

 

Actually, RI I am surprised at too, in those exit polls - I thought that was a Clinton gimme.

 

That would be f'in sweet, wont last.

If you note the post above his, there are now 2 sets out there, each varying by a couple of points.

Vermont Exit Polls:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21226011

 

MSNBC calls it for Obama. No Surprise.

CNN calls Vermont for Obama and McCain by wide margins.