On Tuesday March 4th, the following primaries are up...

 

Texas (193 delegates)

Ohio (141)

Rhode Island (21)

Vermont (15)

 

Big day all around. Polls are close in Ohio and closer in Texas.

 

NSS's predictions...

 

Texas: Obama +3

 

Ohio: Clinton +5

 

RI: Clinton +3

 

VT: Obama +20

 

Clinton's smarmy scare tactic ads give her a little bump, making TX really close, and allowing her to take Ohio. Obama manages to still win Texas (barely), wins big in VT. Rhode Island is a close race. Depending on how the caucus part of TX falls out, these results are a near-draw in terms of delegates. Clinton stays alive.

 

Predictions:

 

Texas: Obama +10

 

Ohio: Clinton +7

 

RI: Clinton: +1

 

VT: Obama +24

So, for Texas, I'm not sure how to read these predictions. Are those predictions in the primary part, the caucus part, or delegate predictions?

So, for Texas, I'm not sure how to read these predictions. Are those predictions in the primary part, the caucus part, or delegate predictions?

I was saying overall percentage, but now that you mention it, that won't really work. I have no idea. I think in Delegates, Obama will win by a small margin. Let's put it that way.

 

I was saying overall percentage, but now that you mention it, that won't really work. I have no idea. I think in Delegates, Obama will win by a small margin. Let's put it that way.

I have a feeling the popular vote will be pretty close, maybe +5% for Obama. I'm guessing he'll do quite well in the caucus. I think I read somewhere that 67 of the Texas delegates will be awarded based on the caucus results. I'd say 37-40 of those delegates will go to Obama.

I have a feeling the popular vote will be pretty close, maybe +5% for Obama. I'm guessing he'll do quite well in the caucus. I think I read somewhere that 67 of the Texas delegates will be awarded based on the caucus results. I'd say 37-40 of those delegates will go to Obama.

The other fun part is that from what I've read, a significant number of the districts Texas apportions in the primary section are 4 delegate districts. In other words, if a candidate wins them all 60-40, the delegate count comes out tied, a candidate needs to do something like 65-35 in one of those districts to come out with a delegate advantage. So for the most part, the primary is going to be a wash except for the vote totals, and the Caucus will be most of the delegate difference.

Predictions:

 

TX - Obama +6

OH - Either/Or +1

RI - Clinton +9

VT - Obama +23

Predictions:

TX - Obama +5

OH - Clinton +6

RI - Clinton +5

VT - Obama +26

 

I did some projections based on my numbers:

Post Tuesday. the delegate count will be ROUGHLY... Obama - 1382.5 Clinton - 1219 (Obama +163.5)

 

To over come the PLEDGED delegate count, Clinton would need to win 65% of the remaining pledged delegates. That includes wins in Mississippi and Montana. I just dont see her doing it.

TX - Clinton +1

OH - Clinton +8

RI - Clinton +7

VT - Obama +19

 

Clinton stays in, of course.

TX - Clinton +5

OH - Clinton +15

RI Clinton +10

VT Clinton +5

 

Obama drops out.

TX - Clinton +5

OH - Clinton +15

RI Clinton +10

VT Clinton +5

 

Obama drops out.

with all do respect, you need to go away

Ok...

 

Well let me give you my justifications:

 

In Texas she will carry the White Supremacist vote. That will allow her to squeak by.

I live in Ohio and everyone I talk to seems to think the Clintons came down from heaven and now that they caught Barak "lying" he has no chance here.

RI is too close to her territory.

VT is the same as RI.

 

Now Barak dropping out might be a little dramatic though. So I'll back off that statement. However I think the super delegates will use this all as an excuse to give Hillary the win.

 

Also I am honest when I say I hate Hilliary with a passion. She's evil. She's a liar. And if Obama loses it does nothing but set up a huge victory for McCain. I pray I'm wrong and Obama wins. But I just don't see it.

VT is the same as RI.

Do you even bother reading numbers at all? Repeated polling data shows Obama with a 20-30 point lead in Vermont.

Ok...

 

Well let me give you my justifications:

 

In Texas she will carry the White Supremacist vote. That will allow her to squeak by.

I live in Ohio and everyone I talk to seems to think the Clintons came down from heaven and now that they caught Barak "lying" he has no chance here.

RI is too close to her territory.

VT is the same as RI.

 

Now Barak dropping out might be a little dramatic though. So I'll back off that statement. However I think the super delegates will use this all as an excuse to give Hillary the win.

 

Also I am honest when I say I hate Hilliary with a passion. She's evil. She's a liar. And if Obama loses it does nothing but set up a huge victory for McCain. I pray I'm wrong and Obama wins. But I just don't see it.

I suggest you stick to baseball commentary.

Seems like Hillary's gaining some momentum over the last 48 hours. Let's hope tomorrow is the end for that annoying whiner.

Edited March 4, 200818 yr by fathom

TX - Obama + 4.

OH - Clinton + 5.

RI - Clinton + 8.

VT - Obama + 24.

 

Clinton to stay in despite the defeat in Texas, unfortunately.

I just have to wonder, with the recent semi-surge for HRC, who are these people that are actually convinced by negative ads?

I just have to wonder, with the recent semi-surge for HRC, who are these people that are actually convinced by negative ads?

 

The same idiots that were on 60 Minutes yesterday saying they think Obama is a Muslim.

The Democratic Party better hope it learned from 2004. Just as the only way they could lose in 2004 was a ticket of Kerry/Edwards, the only way they can lose in 2008 is if they let the whiner back into the race tomorrow. I hope the history of democratic self-destruction continues tomorrow, but I don't see how it can.

The Democratic Party better hope it learned from 2004. Just as the only way they could lose in 2004 was a ticket of Kerry/Edwards, the only way they can lose in 2008 is if they let the whiner back into the race tomorrow. I hope the history of democratic self-destruction continues tomorrow, but I don't see how it can.

Clinton is definitely getting a little bump lately. Could be the negative ads, could be the ultra-conservatives crossing over (listening to their talk show hosts) to make trouble... whatever, it will probably allow her to hold Ohio by a 5-ish point margin. But Texas will still go Obama, I think.

 

And contrary to what a lot of people think, I am of the opinion that the Superdelegate momentum will continue to stay with Obama. And if this goes close and late, like to the convention, they'll break for Obama, for one simple reason... they want to win in November.

 

So basically, Clinton needs to win OH and TX to stay in it. And even then, she has an uphill battle.

 

Clinton is definitely getting a little bump lately. Could be the negative ads, could be the ultra-conservatives crossing over (listening to their talk show hosts) to make trouble... whatever, it will probably allow her to hold Ohio by a 5-ish point margin. But Texas will still go Obama, I think.

 

And contrary to what a lot of people think, I am of the opinion that the Superdelegate momentum will continue to stay with Obama. And if this goes close and late, like to the convention, they'll break for Obama, for one simple reason... they want to win in November.

 

So basically, Clinton needs to win OH and TX to stay in it. And even then, she has an uphill battle.

 

That would be karma after the talk about the Dems doing the same in Michigan

Does McCain seal the deal today?

I don't see how he couldn't clinch the nomination today...

I haven't seen any exit polls yet, but the overall polling data that is out there for the last couple days seems an awful lot like New Hampshire. A close race breaking Hillary's way in each of the major states and nationally as well.

Nothing yet...

 

http://thepage.time.com/2008/03/04/6th-avenue-two-step/