What time tomorrow do you think numbers will start rolling in?

The first polls close at 5PM central in Indian and Kentucky, but they wont be reported until 6PM when the rest of the state polls close.

What time tomorrow do you think numbers will start rolling in?

The first states will probably start being called around 5-6 pm CST, give or take when they close (6 or 7 EST). A lot of them will be wide enough to call on exit polling alone (NY, MA, etc.) The key ones though like VA, PA, OH will take a couple hours because if the margin in the exit polling isn't huge they'll wait to see how the initial returns compare to the exit polling data. If the returns show wider victory margins than the exit polling, that's usually a signal that it's ok to call them.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of those called by 8-9 EST. Especially if recent polling in those 3 has been accurate.

 

Florida, on the other hand, could well be a really late one. Ditto Indiana.

The first states will probably start being called around 5-6 pm CST, give or take when they close (6 or 7 EST). A lot of them will be wide enough to call on exit polling alone (NY, MA, etc.) The key ones though like VA, PA, OH will take a couple hours because if the margin in the exit polling isn't huge they'll wait to see how the initial returns compare to the exit polling data. If the returns show wider victory margins than the exit polling, that's usually a signal that it's ok to call them.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of those called by 8-9 EST. Especially if recent polling in those 3 has been accurate.

 

Florida, on the other hand, could well be a really late one. Ditto Indiana.

I'll be up until a winner is declared, no question.

I'll be up until a winner is declared, no question.

A winner will almost certainly not be "Declared" until 8:00 PST, because that's when California closes. But it's entirely possible we'll "Know" well before then. If Virginia, Florida, or Ohio, or anything else unexpected (NC, GA, IN) are called for Obama early (That'd be 10 pm CST and 11 EST so they'd have had several hours to do some counting before then), then we'd probably know.

 

For a McCain win, I think we might have to wait until Wednesday, because he'd have to pull off so many miracle comebacks in close states that every absentee ballot would probably have to be counted and very little could be called on the exit polls alone.

Nate Silver's latest assessment:

 

With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House.

 

The national polls have all consolidated into a range of roughly Obama +7. That is right about where our model sees the race as well, giving Obama a 6.8 point advantage in its composite of state and national polling. Our model notes, however, that candidates with large leads in the polls have had some tendency to underperform marginally on election day, and so projects an Obama win of 6.0 points tomorrow.

 

Far more important, of course, is the race for 270 electors. It appears almost certain that Obama will capture all of the states won by John Kerry in 2008. Pennsylvania, while certainly having tightened somewhat over the course of the past two weeks, appears to be holding at a margin of about +8 for Obama, with very few remaining undecideds. Obama also appears almost certain to capture Iowa and New Mexico, which were won by Al Gore in 2000. Collectively, these states total 264 electoral votes, leaving Obama just 5 votes shy of a tie and 6 of a win.

 

Obama has any number of states to collect those 5 or 6 votes. In inverse order of difficulty, these include Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. Obama is the signficant favorite in several of these states; winning any one of them may be fairly difficult for John McCain, but winning all of them at once, as John McCain probably must do, is nearly impossible.

 

McCain's chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or "Shy Tory" Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

 

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama's support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

 

McCain's chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year.

What time tomorrow do you think numbers will start rolling in?

This is a pretty cool map that you roll your mouse over to see each time states close.

This one's for you bmags:

 

Current Diggs the Election: Your Election Night Party with Digg, Twitter, and Diplo.

Co-hosted by Digg and Twitter, with video from 12seconds.tv, and with a Live DJ set by Diplo, Current is uniting the best of social media with a real-time broadcast of the most important results, facts and information and giving you a completely new way to experience election night.

No pundits, just perspective.

Tune into Current TV Tuesday, November 4th at 7 e / 4 p to watch the future of election coverage!

 

Or maybe I'm mistaken? Was thinking you're a Diplo fan.

This one's for you bmags:

 

 

 

Or maybe I'm mistaken? Was thinking you're a Diplo fan.

 

Hell yea. I think Top Ranking is my favorite thing that's come out this year. I felt so cool when he used two skream songs on that tape. Thanks BSq!

Nate Silver's latest assessment:

I think it's safe to say that a McCain win tomorrow would be the greatest failure in the history of polling. So much so that I don't know if you'd ever want to bother reading a poll again.

I think it's safe to say that a McCain win tomorrow would be the greatest failure in the history of polling. So much so that I don't know if you'd ever want to bother reading a poll again.

 

haha all hell would break lose.

I just voted on my way to work. It was crazy stuff, my wait was a good hour.

Independent election day thread? or just stick with this one?

Since I usually leave at 6 AM and the polls are at my condo complex's front office, I voted for work. It only took about 20 minutes to get in and out.

Anyone seen MSNBC's badass 3D studio? DAMN! Chuck Todd used it on hardball last night. Damn impressive.

Anyone seen MSNBC's badass 3D studio? DAMN! Chuck Todd used it on hardball last night. Damn impressive.

 

They need to hop on the HD bandwagon. I get annoyed watching their crappy picture. Apparently next spring is when they finally go HD.

I just voted on my way to work. It was crazy stuff, my wait was a good hour.

 

 

Wow, i was lucky, 5 minutes this morning when they first opened in and out

I'm glad I voted early.

Wow, i was lucky, 5 minutes this morning when they first opened in and out

Is your area densely populated?

 

When I was there, everybody seemed to be in a pretty good mood, lots of people smiling. When I left, the line started to die down some because everybody was trying to get in before work.

Lostfan is that a DC ballot for you or a maryland ballot?

Maryland.

 

DC is even more hardcore Democrat.

Hell yea. I think Top Ranking is my favorite thing that's come out this year. I felt so cool when he used two skream songs on that tape. Thanks BSq!

 

If you wind up checking it out let me know how it is. I'll be at the rally tonight.

If you wind up checking it out let me know how it is. I'll be at the rally tonight.

Win lose or draw, you'll have to tell us how it goes tonight...

So apparently upstate New York is the only place to find old school lever voting machines. Apparently there aren't enough. Luckily my gf went this morning and I voted absentee, but later tonight it's going to suck to vote around here.

Win lose or draw, you'll have to tell us how it goes tonight...

 

Sure thing. I'll try posting some pictures as well.

Is your area densely populated?

 

When I was there, everybody seemed to be in a pretty good mood, lots of people smiling. When I left, the line started to die down some because everybody was trying to get in before work.

 

Not really, but we do have kinda a lot of voting places considering and my district is really small.

 

And to G&T, we have the lever's too.