http://www.drudgereport.com/

 

the headline is "5pm (et) exit Poll 52 Clinton 48 Obama" no source or anything, but first numbers I've seen.

It's been my impression that the exit polling has been pro-Obama more often than not, has anyone else gotten that impression?

 

Anyway, I'd be happy with anything in single digits.

WOW!!!!! I can believe it. But, wow. Even to project that is incredible!

(note that he reported yesterday that Clinton internals had her +11. So, that that for what it is worth)

that Clinton internal had a link though, this doesn't, which makes me question it a ton. Also, there's always the possibility, even if these are legit, the first areas reporting have some Obama strongholds in them.

mmmmm my baby Nora O'Donnell on MSNBC. *drools*

Speaking of baby... i think she's pregnant.

that Clinton internal had a link though, this doesn't, which makes me question it a ton. Also, there's always the possibility, even if these are legit, the first areas reporting have some Obama strongholds in them.

Usually, there's no way to link exit poll data until after the tally is over, because the people who take it don't want their polling data to affect the results. But in almost all cases they do pass them on to the media and campaigns as they're being collected, so usually the exit poll leaks have some measure of reliability.

 

Also, it really shouldn't matter which areas report first to an exit poll. It should be taken across the state and compiled as the day goes on. What would matter is if there's a selection in the time of day particular people vote, i.e. older people going during the day while working, younger people going after 5, etc, or whatever.

 

Edit: Here's a huffington post link if you want other people on the record with those numbers.

On the other hand, the contact of one of the guys at the National Review has it 52 Obama 47 Clinton. FWIW. Who knows at this point.

On the other hand, the contact of one of the guys at the National Review has it 52 Obama 47 Clinton. FWIW. Who knows at this point.

UPDATE: Brendan Loy looked at Obama's performance in the early exit polls and concludes "Obama generally does 7-8 points worse in the actual results than he did in the leaked, unweighted exit polls."

 

ANOTHER UPDATE: Yes, I know Drudge has the numbers reversed. I checked with my source, and this is what they've got. I have more than one source who hears the early exit poll numbers, and haven't yet heard from all of them.

 

So, it looks like Clinton +4 MIGHT be weighted?

FYI: Looks like Drudge and CNN might be working with different numbers. Drudge has Obama with 53% of men, but CNN has CLinton with 55%.

FYI: Looks like Drudge and CNN might be working with different numbers. Drudge has Obama with 53% of men, but CNN has CLinton with 55%.

The CNN article I'm reading has Clinton wiht 55% of "White males", not just males.

 

i'm sure that 1/20th of 1% of the primary voters, who are Republicans and went to the trouble of registering Dem just to vote for Hillary Clinton, is going to make the difference.

 

Per MSNBC "Interviews with voters as they left their polling places showed that nearly 1 in 10 had changed their party registrations in recent months to cast ballots in a primary open only to Democrats. About half had been registered Republicans, while the rest had been unaffiliated."

 

Obviously it's not that scientific, but it seems to be much more than "1/20th of 1%."

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24251043/

 

 

The Dems have to be kicking themselves for ever giving the GOP that idea during the Michigan primaries.

 

Yes, the GOP had never done that before this year. Never.

The CNN article I'm reading has Clinton wiht 55% of "White males", not just males.

ohhhhh ok. Where i saw the numbers they didnt say white.

 

Edit: It did say white men, I just missed it. my bad.

Edited April 22, 200817 yr by Athomeboy_2000

Per MSNBC "Interviews with voters as they left their polling places showed that nearly 1 in 10 had changed their party registrations in recent months to cast ballots in a primary open only to Democrats. About half had been registered Republicans, while the rest had been unaffiliated."

 

Obviously it's not that scientific, but it seems to be much more than "1/20th of 1%."

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24251043/

 

CNN reported that 60% of new Dem voters went for Obama. That cheater.

 

MSNBC isn't really a news channel IMO. 10% of voters in the Dem primary were actually Republicans there to mess stuff up? yeaaaaa riiiiiight

CNN reported that 60% of new Dem voters went for Obama. That cheater.

 

MSNBC isn't really a news channel IMO. 10% of voters in the Dem primary were actually Republicans there to mess stuff up? yeaaaaa riiiiiight

 

Kind of agree with genius here, doubt that screwball Republicans are really having much of an effect.

CNN reported that 60% of new Dem voters went for Obama. That cheater.

 

MSNBC isn't really a news channel IMO. 10% of voters in the Dem primary were actually Republicans there to mess stuff up? yeaaaaa riiiiiight

If the republican vote is over 50% in favor of Clinton, it was an attempt to sabotage. Until Rush started his "Operation Chaos", Obama was getting 70+% of the republican vote.

If the republican vote is over 50% in favor of Clinton, it was an attempt to sabotage. Until Rush started his "Operation Chaos", Obama was getting 70+% of the republican vote.

 

i laugh every time i hear "Operation Chaos" . you have to admit, it's a pretty funny name he gave his dastardly plan.

 

but i think you guys give him too much credit. he (along with all his followers of other right wing radio people) went crazy about McCain being the nominee and McCain still destroyed Huckabee. his pull isn't as big as you think. only the most hardcore of ditto heads is going to go out and register as a dem 30 before a primary as to vote hillary

Edited April 22, 200817 yr by mr_genius

but i think you guys give him too much credit. he (along with all his followers of other right wing radio people) went crazy about McCain being the nominee and McCain still destroyed Huckabee. his pull isn't as big as you think. only the most hardcore of ditto heads is going to go out and register as a dem 30 before a primary as to vote hillary

You cant ignore the fact that the republican winds changed when he started his littl eoperation.

You cant ignore the fact that the republican winds changed when he started his littl eoperation.

 

what, Operation Chaos? dude, it's probably not doing jack. there are so many Dems flocking to these primaries that Limbaugh's plan is really a non-factor.

God Bless Tim Russert. When asked about why Obama cant finish Clinton off, he said something that was so dead on and so accurate that in my opinion it shuts this debate about "finishing off" Hillary. he said, the reason Obama cant beat is WHITE WOMEN. Think about it. Obama has Black support, Clinton has women support and they more or less split white males. He said if Hillary where a WHITE MALE, this would be over and Obama the candidate. But she has such fervent support among white woman there is no way for him to overcome that. Just like she cant over come the black vote.

He hit it right on the head!

MSNBC: Penn TOO CLOSE TO CALL!

CNN can't project, as they're saying it's very competitive. That has to be good news for Obama.

MSNBC Exit Polls:

Clinton: 51.640

Obama: 47.780

Too Close to Call is VERY good for Obama

Wow, too close to call basically everywhere. This has to be seen as a major blow to Clinton's campaign

Wow, too close to call basically everywhere. This has to be seen as a major blow to Clinton's campaign

They didn't call Ohio until about 10-20% of the votes were counted. Too close to call can be a relative thing.

They didn't call Ohio until about 10-20% of the votes were counted. Too close to call can be a relative thing.

Ohio exit polls showed her winning 54-44 and she won 54-44

Today they show her winning 51.64-47.78. That's Clinton plus almost 4.

 

And as I said earlier, exit polls have been typically within 1.5%.