Am I the only Hoosier voter out here? Just curious. Anyways, this doesn't need to be pinned, but it might be an interesting area to discuss polls, campaign visits and the like here. There are some interesting races, starting at the top of the ticket and including governor, and the US House seat district two, which includes a guy who spoke at a socialist group honoring Hitler.

I say pin it. It's the most important topic regarding the race for President out there.

 

All you Hoosiers vote for Obama!

A socialist group honoring Hitler?

 

Anyway, IN should be a fun one to watch. Polls are currently very tight, and it really seems like the difference maker state for the next few weeks.

 

Recent polls, excluding Zogby, PPP and ARG (most recent first)...

 

R2000, 4/23-24...........Obama +1

Indy Star, 4/20-23......Obama +3

Downs, 4/14-16..........Obama +5

LAT/Bloom, 4/10-14....Obama +5

SUSA, 4/11-14...........Clinton +16

 

All polls prior to SUSA's showed a Clinton lead. The PA primary was on 4/22. So apparently, Obama has been making ground there. History indicates that, in general, Clinton holds big leads in states until Obama starts campaigning there. Then the gap closes or goes away. Will that happen again here? Or has it already happened? Or will the reverse be the case?

 

Should be fun to watch.

 

A socialist group honoring Hitler?

 

Anyway, IN should be a fun one to watch. Polls are currently very tight, and it really seems like the difference maker state for the next few weeks.

 

http://www.citybythelake.org/forums/index.php?showtopic=1283

 

I also did an interview with the guy, along with his two GOP competitors looking for the right to run in the general election against incumbant Dem Joe Donnelly. The interesting thing is that the guy never disavows anything that the group said or stands for.

 

http://www.citybythelake.org/forums/index.php?showtopic=1288

I was confused at first about the socialists honoring Hitler thing because they are basically completely opposite ideologies, I read the article and it said National Socialist which isn't the same thing (basically, Nazi). I guess people hear "socialist" without hearing the "national" in front of it and they assume it means left-wing when it actually means the opposite.

I actually got a polling call last night, but they didn't ask any "National" questions. They asked which way I lean and how likely I am to vote in the primary, then favorable / unfavorable on Daniels and the 3 Republicans vying for District 15 State Rep, one of which is my former boss.

Indiana is shaping up to an interesting primary. But I don't know that it is as important as people think. I believe Obama needs somewhere in the range of 50 more superdelegate endorsements to mathematically eliminate Hillary, even if he underperforms in the remaining contests.

Indiana is shaping up to an interesting primary. But I don't know that it is as important as people think. I believe Obama needs somewhere in the range of 50 more superdelegate endorsements to mathematically eliminate Hillary, even if he underperforms in the remaining contests.

Each win is going to cut in to that number of endorsements he needs to mathematically eliminate her. And perhaps more importantly, a big win in NC and a win in IN could well be the kind of message that these last freaking holdouts want to hear before they finally get in and tell HRC it's over.

Happy to be important in the Indiana primary.

Am I the only Hoosier voter out here? Just curious. Anyways, this doesn't need to be pinned, but it might be an interesting area to discuss polls, campaign visits and the like here. There are some interesting races, starting at the top of the ticket and including governor, and the US House seat district two, which includes a guy who spoke at a socialist group honoring Hitler.

Your comment has given me a legitimate excuse to write the phrase " tyrant king porn dragon". Your task is to use that in a sentence.

Unfortunately, those Web sites are just a small fraction of evidence you can find on a Google search of combinations of “Jews” “pornography” “sex slavery” “Israel” and “prostitution.” Let’s save our Jewish brothers and sisters from this tyrant king porn dragon before we get to another world-wide pogrom.

I voted yesterday via early voting. It was quick and easy and I would recommend it to all of my fellow Hoosiers that hate waiting in lines.

Edited April 27, 200817 yr by Greg The Bull Luzinski

So Barack Obama was at my alma mater this weekend. And, it sounds like there were a bunch of "racially motivated" fights last week at my old high school, after it was announced that Obama would be in town. Are the two related?

 

To be fair, even almost 20 years ago (holy s*** I'm old), there were "racially motivated" fights damn near every year at my high school in the early spring. Why, I don't know, but it was always bad this time of year at my high school. But this year, they started up 2-3 weeks earlier then normal.

 

I'm glad I don't live there anymore.

I will be voting for the first time next Tuesday. I could have voted in the '04 presidential election, but I couldn't justify waiting in line to cast a ballot for any of the nominees last time.

This is the 1st Presidental Primary in my life time that actually matters in Indiana. I'll be voting for Obama

Latest polls from RCP...

 

NORTH CAROLINA (leaving out ARG and Zogby garbage polls), post-PA in bold...

 

PPP, 4/26-27 (1121 LV): Obama +12

S-USA, 4/19-21 (734 LV): Obama +9

Insider, 4/14 (541 LV): Obama +15

LAT, 4/10-14 (691 LV): Obama +13

 

INDIANA, post-PA in bold, cross-PA in italics

 

S-USA, 4/25-27 (628 LV): Clinton +9

R2000, 4/23-24 (400 LV): Obama +1

Indy, 4/20-23 (535 LV): Obama +3

Downs, 4/14-16 (578 LV): Obama +5

 

NC seems to be running along as it has been for weeks or months. Obama with a 10-ish point lead.

 

IN is very interesting though. Clinton had huge leads up until early April, when Obama started appearing there - her lead dwindled, and eventually, Obama took leads in the polls. Then PA happened, and the results are very inconsistent among the polls. Indy Star was done over that period, and R2000 right after, and they seem to indicate Obama leads, albeit very narrow ones. Then along comes Survey USA, saying Clinton has a 9 point lead. So, is that an outlier as it appears to be? Or has sentiment really shifted that dramatically in a day or two?

 

 

 

 

Wake me up when a nominee is decided... Hillary's not going away until she's told "it's over" and that will be awhile from now.

Local pollster hits Indiana. Obama 47, Clinton 45, 46-46 amongst likely voters. Post PA, 2 separate surveys done seemingly covering about 1200 V's.

 

Couple notes they include:

There appears to be two kinds of Republicans: the “Obamacans” as the Illinois senator likes to call them - earnest Republicans deeply disappointed in their own party’s performance on the budget, economy, social issues and the Iraq War - and the Rush Limbaugh Republicans who are planning to crossover to vote for Sen. Clinton because they perceive her to be the weakest rival to U.S. Sen. John McCain in the November election. Howey-Gauge shows that self-identified Republicans favor Clinton 50-44 percent, while independents favor Obama 54-38 percent. “The Democratic primary is going to be decided by non-Democrats,” said Gauge Market Research pollster Holly Davis. “To be determined is which group - Republicans or independents - are going to decide this race.”

 

Survey USA hits N.C.

Obama 49, Clinton 44.

 

Ouch.

Survey USA hits N.C.

Obama 49, Clinton 44.

 

Ouch.

It AMAZES me how many "bell weather" people there are out there. Watch the polls. The moments Clinton or Obama lose a state, they drop 5+ points. Then they go back up. It's like "OMG! They're sinking they can never win". Then a week later they are ok and go back to where they were.

 

I actually have lost some faith in voters that they are so wishy washy that a loss in a state thousands of miles away effects their vote.

Edited April 30, 200817 yr by Athomeboy_2000

Survey USA hits N.C.

Obama 49, Clinton 44.

 

Ouch.

 

Wow, that is not good at all. He has got to win by double digits if he wants to have a chance at knocking out Hillary.

It should be noted that since PA, Obama has mostly been in Indiana. I think that partially explains both his surprisingly decent numbers there, and also his waning lead in NC, where Clinton has been campaigning more heavily (and where she just got the gov's endorsement). Watch what happens to the NC numbers when Obama shows up there.

 

Bill Clinton is supposed to be in Michigan City tomorrow...

Survey USA hits N.C.

Obama 49, Clinton 44.

 

Ouch.

So here again, S-USA seems to be out of line with other polls. Not that its wrong - I don't know which is wrong or right. But Rasmussen, who is also considered pretty solid, did a poll on 4/28 (S-USA was 4/26-28), and got this result:

 

Obama 51, Clinton 37

 

So... one poll shows +5, the other +14, for basically the same period, and a very similar number of respondants. Weird.

 

Bill Clinton is supposed to be in Michigan City tomorrow...

 

Update. He will be at Elston Middle School (formerly Elston High School for the previous 100 years or so) at 6pm tonight. I don't know if anyone will be going, but doors open at 5pm, scheduled to start speaking at 6pm, more likely to be 6:30 or 7pm according to campaign officials... I am going to try to go, but we will see.

Latest NC Polls:

Rasmussen... 04/28 - 04/28... Obama +14.0

SurveyUSA... 04/26 - 04/28... Obama +5.0

Insider Advantage... 04/29 - 04/29... Clinton +2.0

Mason-Dixon... 04/28 - 04/29... Obama +7.0

 

A side note- this form the poll that has Clinton +2: “Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day."

Edited May 1, 200817 yr by Athomeboy_2000