So, everyone is talking about 5/20 as the next big date (OR, KY), but West Virginia has a primary in the meantime, this coming Tuesday. Its only 21 delegates, but its still worth noting.

 

Of recent polls, the only one taken since the NC/IN results was done by notoriously inaccurate ARG. The most recent before that, by Rasmussen (5/4, 840 LV) shows Clinton with a 29 point lead. That may drop a bit after the recent results, and when Obama actually arrives and campaigns in the state this weekend.

 

I'd guess a 20 to 25 point Clinton win in WV on Tuesday.

 

So, everyone is talking about 5/20 as the next big date (OR, KY), but West Virginia has a primary in the meantime, this coming Tuesday. Its only 21 delegates, but its still worth noting.

 

Of recent polls, the only one taken since the NC/IN results was done by notoriously inaccurate ARG. The most recent before that, by Rasmussen (5/4, 840 LV) shows Clinton with a 29 point lead. That may drop a bit after the recent results, and when Obama actually arrives and campaigns in the state this weekend.

 

I'd guess a 20 to 25 point Clinton win in WV on Tuesday.

This would be comparable to a team scoring a safety in the final 2 minutes of a football game and still being down 3 scores.

I'd guess a 20 to 25 point Clinton win in WV on Tuesday.

Or 43

Or 43

If you read my original post, you'll see I specifically said that ARG put out a poll more recently, but RCP doesn't even include those in its averages because of their reputation. I don't put any stock in ARG's polls.

 

If you read my original post, you'll see I specifically said that ARG put out a poll more recently, but RCP doesn't even include those in its averages because of their reputation. I don't put any stock in ARG's polls.

oh I know. I am just joking around. i dont trust ARG at all.

The Financial Times of London reviews the upcoming WV primary. This is how Londoners will be seeing West Virginia. Not pretty.

 

The Financial Times of London reviews the upcoming WV primary. This is how Londoners will be seeing West Virginia. Not pretty.

 

Like most people in Mingo County, West Virginia, Leonard Simpson is a lifelong Democrat. But given a choice between Barack Obama and John McCain in November, the 67-year-old retired coalminer would vote Republican.

 

“I heard that Obama is a Muslim and his wife’s an atheist,” said Mr Simpson, drawing on a cigarette outside the fire station in Williamson, a coalmining town of 3,400 people surrounded by lush wooded hillsides.

 

What's worse, that Londoners see West Virginians this way, or that some Americans actually think this way?

What's worse, that Londoners see West Virginians this way, or that some Americans actually think this way?

Obama should have run on the OxyContin for everyone ticket

What's worse, that Londoners see West Virginians this way, or that some Americans actually think this way?

I have thought for a while that Obama's lack of support in WV and Kentucky had far less to do with policy and likability than "other issues".

Quick projection- Let's assume Clinton takes WV 70-30.

Not including FL and MI, she then needs 91% (yes 91%) of all remaining pledged delegates to win the pledged count.

Including FL as is: she needs 80.7%

Including FL and MI (using the MI proposal of 69-59): 78.1%

 

If it's 65-35...

No FL and MI: 91.5%

FL Included: she needs 81.5%

FL and MI (using the MI proposal) included: 78.8%

Edited May 13, 200817 yr by Athomeboy_2000

Interesting to see how different news organizations are covering today's primary. CNN.com's front page is all about today's race, complete with delegate graphics and charts. The main story also includes:

A big win in West Virginia today could re-energize Sen. Hillary Clinton's bid for the White House and raise fresh doubts about Sen. Barack Obama's electability in November.

While MSNBC.com barely even mentions today's primary.

 

NOTE: This observation was taken at 4:30PM CST

Edited May 13, 200817 yr by BigSqwert

Race was a factor...

One in FOUR (25%) Clinton voters said race was a factor.

Apparently West Virginians like being pandered to...

Seven in 10 Hillary Clinton voters supported her idea to suspend the federal gas tax for the summer.

 

I can't wait for the media to make it seem Obama has lost his "locked up" nomination after tonight.

I can't wait for the media to make it seem Obama has lost his "locked up" nomination after tonight.

I dont think you'll see that. Fox maybe, but not the others.

Exit Polls via MSNBC:

Obama: 31.9

Clinton: 65.12

 

Clinton +33.22

I dont think you'll see that. Fox maybe, but not the others.

You'll see it, especially from CNN. Anything to continue the fight will help their ratings, plus they do seem to be a bit pro-Clinton (though not as much so as protrayed, I think).

 

MSNBC is reporting from a Clinton rally in WV and no one is there! lol

Yes it's early, but they KNEW she would win and you would think they would get people there early to celebrate the moment victory is declared.

Edited May 13, 200817 yr by Athomeboy_2000

I haven't seen this in a while, but what's the projected polls in Oregon looking like?

I haven't seen this in a while, but what's the projected polls in Oregon looking like?

Obama up big...

3 Polls: Obama +11, +14, +20

Read on Ben Smith's blog (Politico) that a big win by Clinton tonight could net her 10 more delegates than Obama. Whoopty doo.

I haven't seen this in a while, but what's the projected polls in Oregon looking like?

some recent OR polls...

 

Portland Trib, 5/8-10: Obama +20

S-USA, 5/9-11: Obama +11

PPP, 5/10-11 (take with grain of salt): Obama +14

 

some recent OR polls...

 

Portland Trib, 5/8-10: Obama +20

S-USA, 5/9-11: Obama +11

PPP, 5/10-11 (take with grain of salt): Obama +14

I refuse to believe those numbers. The Hard working white people of Oregon won't let Hillrod down!

Exit Polls via MSNBC:

Obama: 31.9

Clinton: 65.12

 

Clinton +33.22

 

 

 

 

 

Are you really surprised? Most of the reputable polls were showing a 30 to 35 point win for Clinton.