Russia v Georgia

[santo=dorf]

How long until GW ties Russia to Al-Qaeda and the 9/11 attacks?

[DBAHO]

How long until GW ties Russia to Al-Qaeda and the 9/11 attacks?

That'd be a fitting end to mark the end of his presidency wouldn't it.

 

My guess is America wants to help Georgia out by sending in troops, but that they won't do it because they don't want to piss Russia off. I wonder how China feels about this also, my guess is they'd be on the Russian's side.

[lostfan]

Re-igniting the Cold War would require an appalling lack of wisdom on both ends.

[Balta1701]

I've decided to flip flop on this. We need to help this country out. They are a pretty good ally and have even sent 2,000 troops to help in iraq.

So, here's my question in reply...what can we do? We've already done one anti-Russian act in helping the Georgians extract their troops from one conflict and move them to the one near their home. What further steps should we take? Economic actions against Russia? Who's going to be up for that in this energy price environment, when their biggest product right now is energy exports? What diplomatic leverage do we have over the Russians when we need their help to try to deal with Iran already? Beyond that there's the direct military assistance options...and do we really want to be pushing that? When you say we need to "help this country out", the motivation is understandable...but what exactly are our options?

[lostfan]

Honestly, we don't have any real options. We know that, and they know that. All we can do is tell them they're pissing us off.

[Steve9347]

Getting involved against the Russians would be exactly what the Russians would want us to do.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Honestly, we don't have any real options. We know that, and they know that. All we can do is tell them they're pissing us off.

Europ eneeds to step up now. Stop being pansies. Grow some nuts.

[Balta1701]

Europ eneeds to step up now. Stop being pansies. Grow some nuts.

Fine. What can they do? Although they don't care nearly as much as us about using Russia against Iran, they're in the same boat. Georgia is still far away, and they're roped even more tightly than we are to Russia for their energy needs.

[DBAHO]

Europ eneeds to step up now. Stop being pansies. Grow some nuts.

They probably think that's America's job to do.

[Balta1701]

They probably think that's America's job to do.

You guys haven't answered my question. What exactly do you folks mean by "Grow some nuts"? Are you actually advocating a military response against Russia by the Eurozone?

[lostfan]

You guys haven't answered my question. What exactly do you folks mean by "Grow some nuts"? Are you actually advocating a military response against Russia by the Eurozone?

This would quite literally cause WWIII by the way. They are nothing like old Soviet strength, but they are still Russia.

[DBAHO]

You guys haven't answered my question. What exactly do you folks mean by "Grow some nuts"? Are you actually advocating a military response against Russia by the Eurozone?

No absolutely not, that would be a crazy idea.

 

I was just stating that the European Nations probably believe that since America has so many troops of Iraq, Afghanistan etc. and is basically the world leader on cleaning up these tpye of things, that they could possibly expect some sort of action from America.

 

And America could do some diplomatic / economic retaliation possibly, but as you said, the price of oil is such a huge issue right now, and I don't think it would look good to the American Public for Bush if the price went up just because they took some action against another major powerhouse in the world.

[DBAHO]

This would quite literally cause WWIII by the way. They are nothing like old Soviet strength, but they are still Russia.

And they would probably have the backing of China I would say, and that would scare the hell out of America I would think, those 2 nations working together.

[lostfan]

Is Russia still self-sufficient with oil like it used to be back in the day? I think it's a net exporter is it not?

[lostfan]

And they would probably have the backing of China I would say, and that would scare the hell out of America I would think, those 2 nations working together.

Maybe. China is in it for China and they do whatever they think benefits them. They don't really care what other people think either.

Edited August 11, 2008 by lostfan

[Balta1701]

Is Russia still self-sufficient with oil like it used to be back in the day? I think it's a net exporter is it not?

Yes, it is a net exporter of both oil and gas, which is of course part of the reason why all this is happening. They export most of their oil and gas to the Eurozone, and they've really begun using that energy club to beat people up there if they don't listen to them. Georgia is a key part of maneuvering for oil supplies for that part of the world outside of Russia, thanks to that new pipeline, which is one of the reasons there was talk of moving Georgia and the Ukraine in to NATO. Russia's energy exports have also brought it the money it needs to be able to finance these sorts of actions.

[Balta1701]

And America could do some diplomatic / economic retaliation possibly, but as you said, the price of oil is such a huge issue right now, and I don't think it would look good to the American Public for Bush if the price went up just because they took some action against another major powerhouse in the world.

And similarly, no nation in Europe is willing to have its people freeze in the winter because Russia cut off its natural gas supplies over a country a thousand kilometers away.

[DBAHO]

And similarly, no nation in Europe is willing to have its people freeze in the winter because Russia cut off its natural gas supplies over a country a thousand kilometers away.

That shows how important it is to have good natural resources in your country that you can utilize in situations like this.

 

Unfortunately it's a case of big fish eating little fish really.

[mr_genius]

So, here's my question in reply...what can we do? We've already done one anti-Russian act in helping the Georgians extract their troops from one conflict and move them to the one near their home. What further steps should we take? Economic actions against Russia? Who's going to be up for that in this energy price environment, when their biggest product right now is energy exports? What diplomatic leverage do we have over the Russians when we need their help to try to deal with Iran already? Beyond that there's the direct military assistance options...and do we really want to be pushing that? When you say we need to "help this country out", the motivation is understandable...but what exactly are our options?

 

Options are limited, as I think the Iraq war has hurt our ability to build a coalition to sanction Russia. If the US is going to push for these countries to back US policy, we need to be able to defend them if they join us and Russia starts bombing the crap out of them. Right now I think the only thing we can really do is give these countries a means to defend themselves by suppling them with weapons. That, or just basically concede these countries to Russia.

 

It is a really tricky situation as I wouldn't want to get into a conflict with Russia again. But what should the US do if Russia just invades all these former soviet Republics and claims them as theirs?

[lostfan]

Options are limited, as I think the Iraq war has hurt our ability to build a coalition to sanction Russia. If the US is going to push for these countries to back US policy, we need to be able to defend them if they join us and Russia starts bombing the crap out of them. Right now I think the only thing we can really do is give these countries a means to defend themselves by suppling them with weapons. That, or just basically concede these countries to Russia.

 

It is a really tricky situation as I wouldn't want to get into a conflict with Russia again. But what should the US do if Russia just invades all these former soviet Republics and claims them as theirs?

If you mean "sanction" in the UN sense, that's impossible by default.

 

Now, if Russia starts blatantly violating international law and takes over all these soverign countries again (simply on the grounds that they want to) I think the international community would probably consider that an open act of war. Russia's making a strategic move here that looks bold, but I don't think they're crazy. They didn't like the Cold War any more than we did.

[Balta1701]

If you mean "sanction" in the UN sense, that's impossible by default.

 

Now, if Russia starts blatantly violating international law and takes over all these soverign countries again (simply on the grounds that they want to) I think the international community would probably consider that an open act of war. Russia's making a strategic move here that looks bold, but I don't think they're crazy. They didn't like the Cold War any more than we did.

Let's take it back one step then. They don't conquer or station troops in Georgia's capital, but the war brings down the government and brings a pro-Russian government to power. And Russian troops reach and take control of those pipelines across the country we're so interested in, thus giving them total control of the Caspian energy supplies. That's a totally reasonable set of goals for the Russians in this conflict...remove a pro-Western, anti-Russian government and strengthen their energy controls. What do we do then?

[mr_genius]

Now, if Russia starts blatantly violating international law and takes over all these soverign countries again (simply on the grounds that they want to) I think the international community would probably consider that an open act of war. Russia's making a strategic move here that looks bold, but I don't think they're crazy. They didn't like the Cold War any more than we did.

 

They are blatantly invading one right now. How many would be too many? Is there a threshold you would be Ok with, such as 'well, let them have 3 countries'.

[lostfan]

Let's take it back one step then. They don't conquer or station troops in Georgia's capital, but the war brings down the government and brings a pro-Russian government to power. And Russian troops reach and take control of those pipelines across the country we're so interested in, thus giving them total control of the Caspian energy supplies. That's a totally reasonable set of goals for the Russians in this conflict...remove a pro-Western, anti-Russian government and strengthen their energy controls. What do we do then?

Short of overt military action, which is unrealistic, I don't see what we can do.

 

But speaking of that, this was basically routine during the Cold War, except we'd just deny it was us doing it.

[mr_genius]

Let's take it back one step then. They don't conquer or station troops in Georgia's capital, but the war brings down the government and brings a pro-Russian government to power. And Russian troops reach and take control of those pipelines across the country we're so interested in, thus giving them total control of the Caspian energy supplies. That's a totally reasonable set of goals for the Russians in this conflict...remove a pro-Western, anti-Russian government and strengthen their energy controls. What do we do then?

 

Yea, pretty much. The plan is probably to invade and have the government crumble then have the country ruled by Russian proxy. Basically telling these countries they need to elect leaders who will be under Russian control, or you get invaded.

[lostfan]

They are blatantly invading one right now. How many would be too many? Is there a threshold you would be Ok with, such as 'well, let them have 3 countries'.

What I'm saying is I don't see them doing anything like that. If they did, they may as well just come out and declare war on the United States.