Tuesday is coming and its good fun and all to watch the results coming in, but with projections being what they are.... when will it become obvious who is going to win the Presidential election?

 

Here's RexKickass's confusing prediction.

 

The polls close in Virginia at 7p. If that state is called for Obama and PA and NH which close at 8 are called for Obama. We should know at that point.

 

Obama seems to have a lock on Iowa. McCain really only has a shot at peeling PA and NH from the 252 electoral votes that Kerry got in 04.

 

Once those three states are called, assuming everything else goes as it did in 2004, Obama will get a minimum of 272 electoral votes - and will be the next President.

 

If McCain can pull a win out in PA, the picture will become much less clear. Obama would need to win in Ohio or Florida to recover solidly. Or could win by pulling ahead in New Mexico and Colorado (states he is expected to carry) plus any of the following states - Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada OR the combination of Montana and North Dakota.

 

If McCain can pull a win out in PA or NH, the picture remains very similar to a victory in PA except Nevada or the combination of Montana and North Dakota would not give him the victory either. Here we would be looking at NM, CO + VA or NC or IN or MO or NV+MT+ND.

Side note: you are referencing eastern times. So, it'll be 6PM central when polls close in VA. I've said for a while that I think we'll know with pretty good certainty by 8PM central. Good indication at 6, but for sure at 8.

Hell, we know NOW, don't we?

 

Hell, we know NOW, don't we?

 

I never count my chickens before they hatch. Whenever I get too cocky, what I want to happen rarely does happen.

Hell, we know NOW, don't we?

 

We know not much now. We know where the race will probably turn.

Hell, we know NOW, don't we?

 

Just look at the prediction thread, the polls have already announced the winner. We don't even need to go vote.

If Obama wins VA that's when I start partying.

If McCain loses PA, it is over. Obama will win IA, NM, and CO.

If McCain loses PA, it is over. Obama will win IA, NM, and CO.

 

NM and CO are expected to fall for Obama, but I think that those states are by no means the lock that Iowa appears to be.

 

If PA doesn't fall for McCain, there are literally about 10 different states that he needs to hang on for dear life at to have a shot at winning the Presidency, including AZ. Virginia would be the first of those states to start turning results in.

Math is hard, let's go shopping!

Math is hard, let's go shopping!

I always knew you were President Bush in hiding!

Math is hard, let's go shopping!

do I get a $150,000 clothing allowance from the RNC?

We'll know as soon as all the chads are no longer hanging, all the broken voting machines are fixed, and all the claims of illegal activity on both sides are sorted out.

Maybe 2010....

Semi related, but is anyone going to the Obama rally in the Grant Park Tuesday. I have a Tuesday class from 3:30-6:20, so I'm going to be less than 6 blocks away, so I figure I probably should go. Whats the expected turn out/set up?

It's invitation only, all the passes have been distributed, everyone will need their printed ticket and photo ID.

They're expecting a s***load of people, estimates run from 750K to 1 million.

Whats the expected turn out/set up?

unknown. They havent disclosed the amount of tickets they gave out. I have a hard time believing it'll be less than 500,000

Ugh, now my problem is just finding a way to get home. The Loop is going to be a joke on Tuesday.

Yep.

I wish you luck. I'm very glad I get off work at 1 PM.

do I get a $150,000 clothing allowance from the RNC?

 

Nah, you get millions on untracable prepaid credit cards.

unknown. They havent disclosed the amount of tickets they gave out. I have a hard time believing it'll be less than 500,000

 

They said in the Trib today Grant Park will hold about 70k for the event.

They said in the Trib today Grant Park will hold about 70k for the event.

Daley said in more detail that the 65k is just the ticketed section, and there will also be an unticketed, GA section.

How many were at the Bulls rallies?

Daley said in more detail that the 65k is just the ticketed section, and there will also be an unticketed, GA section.

 

 

Wow, how will they get all those people up here from there. Will each state have their own section?