The Taliban have, for a while, been taking effective control of regions in Pakistan (not Afghanistan - Pakistan). The latest area is called Buner, only 60 miles from the capitol.

 

This, to me, is awfully disturbing. The Paki military is apparently unable or unwanting to wrest back control from the Taliban. Pakistan is a nuclear country, bordering another nuclear country who it wars with regularly (India), a country with no truly effective government (Afghanistan), and a country who is seen by some as a regional hegemon (Iran). if the Taliban were to get into all out war in Pakistan, that could get ugly real fast.

 

Latest article here.

 

Thoughts?

It's a scary situation, and it could be the very reason why we need to get combat forces out of Iraq, unfortunately.

The situation in Pakistan is quickly becoming one that is getting closer and closer to being a big mess. It's not even so much that Pakistan can't or won't do anything about it, it's that their leaders don't believe that it is that big of a problem.

The situation in Pakistan is quickly becoming one that is getting closer and closer to being a big mess. It's not even so much that Pakistan can't or won't do anything about it, it's that their leaders don't believe that it is that big of a problem.

It's both.

I would guess that India is not liking this either.

 

 

Does Pakistan have long range nuclear missiles?

Define long-range? Do you mean like ICBMs?

Edited April 23, 200916 yr by lostfan

I would guess that India is not liking this either.

 

 

Does Pakistan have long range nuclear missiles?

I don't know, but, it doesn't really matter. They have missiles that can reach everyone else in the region, which is plenty enough to scare people. Also, there is the real fear that the nuclear material or bombs could be taken out of the country to who knows where.

 

Define long-range? Do you mean like ICBMs?

 

 

Yeah like ICBms.

Yeah like ICBms.

Oh, then no (as far as I know).

Oh, then no (as far as I know).

Unless they have purchased something from somewhere like North Korea, which is possible, the longest range missile publicly known from them is the Shaheen 2 missile, tested publicly in 2004. It has an estimated range of about 2000 km and can carry nuclear warheads. Here's a good graph of what each country is believed to be able to hit:

 

Even NK doesn't have those, they take years to develop and they're really expensive. But yeah compared to the major powers, both of those countries are relatively unsophisticated as far as delivery systems go.

It's getting to a point where direct military intervention in Pakistan might be necessary. I've been saying for years this where the biggest problem was, not Iran or North Korea.

It's getting to a point where direct military intervention in Pakistan might be necessary. I've been saying for years this where the biggest problem was, not Iran or North Korea.

The problem is...its entirely possible a U.S. intervention could explode things.

The problem is...its entirely possible a U.S. intervention could explode things.

 

To a large extent, the US intervening is what got things to this point anyway...

To a large extent, the US intervening is what got things to this point anyway...

The question is, what could we have done differently/better?

Don't worry, Obama will talk to them!

To a large extent, the US intervening is what got things to this point anyway...

I wouldn't say that, it didn't help, but Pakistan was always a clusterf*** to some degree.

The problem is...its entirely possible a U.S. intervention could explode things.

Plus, I mean... how are we going to do it? Unless it was on a limited basis (special forces, covert ops, etc.)

Plus, I mean... how are we going to do it? Unless it was on a limited basis (special forces, covert ops, etc.)

Even then, the presence of U.S. troops on the ground in Pakistan has been a way of motivating and encouraging recruitment for the Taliban every time it's happened, it seems. That's the obnoxious part...if we do nothing, then that government probably collapses and we have a growing potential civil war in a nuclear armed country. If we take action, we may set off a civil war in a nuclear armed country.

This is what I dont understand as a whole: What is it with the people in that area of the world? They cant seem to govern, they can seem to ward off threats, and its ripe with terrorist organizations. Is it race related? Is it economic? I guess I am not that into politics to know the answer.

The problem is...its entirely possible a U.S. intervention could explode things.

It's definitely one of the least desirable situations, but I'm losing more faith daily in Pakistan's state strength.

This is what I dont understand as a whole: What is it with the people in that area of the world? They cant seem to govern, they can seem to ward off threats, and its ripe with terrorist organizations. Is it race related? Is it economic? I guess I am not that into politics to know the answer.

Part of it is post-colonial effects, part of it is the fact that they were all run by tribes and some places never fully adapted into modern states, part of it is from only the last couple of decades where militant Islam started to come into play.

It seems to me that the current head of the Pakistani army is perceived to be a pretty competent guy. Hopefully if worse comes to worst the army will be able to keep the important regions in check.

 

What happened to that lawyer revolution or whatever? The guys in suits. I thought Pakistan had a large middle class. A group that is not amenable to radical ideas? Or is the economy totally screwing that over too?

Part of it is post-colonial effects, part of it is the fact that they were all run by tribes and some places never fully adapted into modern states, part of it is from only the last couple of decades where militant Islam started to come into play.

I mean, isnt that region one of the oldest if not the oldest human civilizations? Havent we given them enough time to figure s*** out? I just dont get it.

It seems to me that the current head of the Pakistani army is perceived to be a pretty competent guy. Hopefully if worse comes to worst the army will be able to keep the important regions in check.

 

What happened to that lawyer revolution or whatever? The guys in suits. I thought Pakistan had a large middle class. A group that is not amenable to radical ideas? Or is the economy totally screwing that over too?

 

 

Thats what I thought. The Taliban are as extremist as you get. You think they would have a hard time gaining support in a somewhat modern city like Islamabad or a very modern city like Karachi.