Iranian Election Thread

[Kyyle23]

If the Ayatollah were to pass away tomorrow, would there be someone to usurp his power, or would Ahmadinejad then truly have all of the power in the country.

[lostfan]

If the Ayatollah were to pass away tomorrow, would there be someone to usurp his power, or would Ahmadinejad then truly have all of the power in the country.

A (unelected) religious figure would take over. This Ayatollah took over from the first one I think in the late 80s.

[DukeNukeEm]

This is very good for both Iran and the US.

[knightni]

The first thing that the Iranian govt did when protests broke out? Block Facebook.

 

Mousavi's people will never level up on Mafia Wars now...

[Balta1701]

Nah, I'd just chalk this up to incompetence and shortsightedness. I really doubt they had a real plan.

 

As an analyst I try not to see things with a pro-Western/US bias (i.e., automatically figuring someone I don't like had to cheat to win) but in this case what happened is pretty obvious.

I was skeptical until I saw that graph. The only way that graph actually would realistically happen is if they took all the ballots, shipped them to a central location, and then totally randomized them before counting them.

[Balta1701]

A (unelected) religious figure would take over. This Ayatollah took over from the first one I think in the late 80s.

While this is true, it's worth noting what position Khamenei had during Khomenei's stint as Ayatollah: President.

 

It's also worth noting that the last time there was a change, the leadership appears to have stayed in a state of turmoil for years due to the fact that he wasn't actually a religious cleric at the time he was appointed, although Khamenei seems to have been de facto selected by his predecessor. I haven't a clue what sort of succession ideas this one has. If he's willing to rig an election for Ahmadeinejad, then he could well want him in line.

[Balta1701]

Here's another possible:

Scenario Two: There has been a coup. Ahmedinejad and the security services have taken over. The Supreme Leader has been preserved as a figurehead, but the structures of clerical rule have effectively been gutted and are being replaced by a National Security State. Reports that facebook, twitter, text messaging and foreign TV broadcasts have been blocked, that foreign journalists are being expelled and that large concrete roadblocks (the kind that require a crane to move) have appeared in front of the Interior Ministry all feed a sense that what we are now seeing was pre-planned. Underlying this is the theory that Ahmedinejad and the people around him represent a new generation of Iranian leadership. He and his colleagues were young revolutionaries in 1979. Now in their 50s they have built careers inside the Revolutionary Guard and the other security services. They may be committed to the Islamic Republic as a concept, but they are not part of its clerical aristocracy and are now moving to push the clerics into an essentially ceremonial role. This theory in particular seems to be gaining credibility rapidly among professional Iran-watchers outside of the country. Then again…

[lostfan]

While this is true, it's worth noting what position Khamenei had during Khomenei's stint as Ayatollah: President.

 

It's also worth noting that the last time there was a change, the leadership appears to have stayed in a state of turmoil for years due to the fact that he wasn't actually a religious cleric at the time he was appointed, although Khamenei seems to have been de facto selected by his predecessor. I haven't a clue what sort of succession ideas this one has. If he's willing to rig an election for Ahmadeinejad, then he could well want him in line.

Interesting, I didn't know that. I figured Khomeini more or less hand-selected Khameini.

[HuskyCaucasian]

So, the EU is accepting the Ahmadinejad win.

 

What a bunch of dopes. But I am proud to say the fatherladn... Germany... is not accepting it.

 

The White House has no official position, but I have a feeling they dont accept it as legit, but need to find a way to play this out without causing more trouble.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Here's another possible:

fascinating.

[BigSqwert]

Some excellent blogging by Andrew Sullivan on Iran.

 

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/

[lostfan]

I was skeptical until I saw that graph. The only way that graph actually would realistically happen is if they took all the ballots, shipped them to a central location, and then totally randomized them before counting them.

That chart doesn't really appear to be of much significance by itself, apparently you can simulate US presidential elections and have a similar straight line graph.

[Rex Kickass]

So watching his Republic spiral out of control, Khamenei has apparently ordered a vote probe.

 

Also documents appear to have leaked out of the interior ministry showing that Achmadenijad finished third, not first.

[HuskyCaucasian]

So watching his Republic spiral out of control, Khamenei has apparently ordered a vote probe.

From HuffPo Live Blog:

Another emailer, Reza, is even more pessimistic: "Please put the Supreme Leader's request to probe the election results in perspective for your readers. The body that will be probing election is appointed by the Supreme Leader and all its members are hardliners and backers of Ahmadinejad and his policies. This is nothing but a sham in an attempt to extinguish the fever for change that's taking hold in the country."

 

This may very well be true. But on the other hand, Khamenei is most certainly feeling pressure from various quarters -- popular unrest, the more ideologically-moderate camp of former President Rafsanjani, several Ayatollahs, and so on -- to address the election allegations. And it's unclear at this point how Khamenei addresses any of those pressures by having a sham probe give a seal of approval to the results.

 

Also documents appear to have leaked out of the interior ministry showing that Achmadenijad finished third, not first.

:o :o

Edited June 15, 2009 by Athomeboy_2000

[HuskyCaucasian]

Very Cool:

There's an interesting effort via Twitter's #iranelection feed to provide in-country bloggers, tweeters, etc. with Internet proxies, as the government works to cut the outflow of unofficial information via existing IP addresses.

[lostfan]

So watching his Republic spiral out of control, Khamenei has apparently ordered a vote probe.

 

Also documents appear to have leaked out of the interior ministry showing that Achmadenijad finished third, not first.

Really? Link?

[HuskyCaucasian]

Really? Link?

Guardian.co.uk

 

The official result – 63% for Ahmadinejad and 34% for Mousavi, his main rival – means four more years for the president and an end to hopes for reform at home and perhaps for detente with the west.

 

But all three contenders to the presidency, reformist and conservative, have raised serious doubts about the result.

 

Mousavi claimed that, on Friday night, he had been informed by the interior ministry that he had won the election convincingly. That claim was first published on a popular website which was subsequently closed down.

 

There were also reports of a leaked interior ministry document which suggested that Ahmadinejad had come third in the vote.

[Rex Kickass]

It's so hard to stop this beast once it gets started. If it comes out that Khamenei's guy only won with 51% of the vote, it looks rigged and the protests continue. If it comes out that there were "no irregularities," protests continue. This kind of genie is damn hard to put back in the bottle once it's let out - and any member of the Iranian revolution of 1979 knows this to be true - because they were the genie back then.

 

Khamenei just lost his gamble here - he's losing control of his own country, and I'd wager the only way he thinks to save it is to put Mousavi and Ahmadenijad in a runoff election.

[lostfan]

Rigged a little better this time, of course.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Neocon reaction.

It feels messy wading into that right now, but two brief points. One, highlighted by Andrew Sullivan, is this line by the New Republic's neocon-in-chief Marty Peretz:

Maybe the regime fiddled around a bit with the number

s

at the poll

s

and after the polling.

S

till,

the outcome had a

s

en

s

e of authenticity

.

As Andrew writes, "Even I am a little taken aback by the neocons' desire for an Ahmadinejad victory."

[Nixon]

Why is he taken aback by it? Ahmadinejad = Bush and neocons = hardline islamists. Same close-minded idiots history should have left behind with a different name.

[Balta1701]

It's so hard to stop this beast once it gets started. If it comes out that Khamenei's guy only won with 51% of the vote, it looks rigged and the protests continue. If it comes out that there were "no irregularities," protests continue. This kind of genie is damn hard to put back in the bottle once it's let out - and any member of the Iranian revolution of 1979 knows this to be true - because they were the genie back then.

 

Khamenei just lost his gamble here - he's losing control of his own country, and I'd wager the only way he thinks to save it is to put Mousavi and Ahmadenijad in a runoff election.

Dominic: What do you think will happen?

Finch: What usually happens when people without guns stand up to people with guns.

[Soxbadger]

The longer it continues, the more serious it is.

 

No matter what happens Ahmadenijad's legitimacy has been seriously challenged. Even if he stays President my guess is that the clerics, etc will try and reign him in so as not to start a full scale revolution.

[lostfan]

The longer it continues, the more serious it is.

 

No matter what happens Ahmadenijad's legitimacy has been seriously challenged. Even if he stays President my guess is that the clerics, etc will try and reign him in so as not to start a full scale revolution.

Not Ahmadinejad's legitimacy - Khameini's legitimacy. The rift in Iran is just that deep right now.

[Balta1701]

Not Ahmadinejad's legitimacy - Khameini's legitimacy. The rift in Iran is just that deep right now.

They really are both tied together quite strongly at this point.

 

The people in the streets aren't arguing to turn against Islam, they're basically saying that the revolution has been betrayed by Ahmadinejad, if I'm understanding the things I've been reading correctly. It's not the religious nature of the state they're arguing against...just the specific people.