IlliniKrush Posted August 2, 2003 Share Posted August 2, 2003 When you are looking for the division crown, the wins mean more than the loses: 1. Royals = 57 wins 2. WHITE SOX = 57 wins 3. Twinkies = 53 wins This isn't Hockey. The fact that the Royals have 2 gms in hand in the loss column don't mean jack. Chances are they will have to play double hearders to make up those games. We all know how hard it is to win a double header. Even the NYY have a hard time doing it. Not that it really matters. Next week the Royals visit the Cell. Watch the changing of the guard. I don't know where you learned that but baseball standings have always regarded the loss column more important than the wins column for over a century. Winning percentage proves this, as the Royals have the edge in the winning percentage (.533-.532) even though they have less wins than the Sox (57-58) because they also have less losses (50-51). Wins only mean more than/as much as losses when looking at the division standings when all teams have played the same number of games (say, at the end of the year, ideally). If not, the All-Important Loss Column takes precendence. Not that the win/loss column mean anything when the teams are in a virtual tie on August 1. As long as they keep on hittin'. You got to it before i did. 100% correct - losses mean way more than wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted August 2, 2003 Share Posted August 2, 2003 When you are looking for the division crown, the wins mean more than the loses: 1. Royals = 57 wins 2. WHITE SOX = 57 wins 3. Twinkies = 53 wins This isn't Hockey. The fact that the Royals have 2 gms in hand in the loss column don't mean jack. Chances are they will have to play double hearders to make up those games. We all know how hard it is to win a double header. Even the NYY have a hard time doing it. Not that it really matters. Next week the Royals visit the Cell. Watch the changing of the guard. I don't know where you learned that but baseball standings have always regarded the loss column more important than the wins column for over a century. Winning percentage proves this, as the Royals have the edge in the winning percentage (.533-.532) even though they have less wins than the Sox (57-58) because they also have less losses (50-51). Wins only mean more than/as much as losses when looking at the division standings when all teams have played the same number of games (say, at the end of the year, ideally). If not, the All-Important Loss Column takes precendence. Not that the win/loss column mean anything when the teams are in a virtual tie on August 1. As long as they keep on hittin'. You got to it before i did. 100% correct - losses mean way more than wins You're both wrong. Look at the %'s. First off, historically it's like 99.9% of the time that the team with the most wins has won the division. The exceptions being times when 2 teams fighting for a division don't play the same games. Secondly, it's a question of winning %. Right now the SOX have 58 wins, & KC has 57 wins. Based on KC's winning %, there is on avg a .533% chance that KC will win it's 58 game. Where there is a 100% chance that the SOX have. This is why %-wise the edge goes to the SOX. Thirdly, losses come into play in terms of magic numbers because of mathematical elimination. For a magic number to have any significance a team must be at least 2 gms back in the win-loss differential. Clearly that is not the case here. Forthly, the SOX own the head-head 5-4. It's a moot point, because the SOX aren't stopping. By this time next week, I predict KC with be 3 gb at a min. <- to the M's. It better be your best, or you'll get spanked again! :fthecubs -> for beating the D's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted August 2, 2003 Share Posted August 2, 2003 Fifth reason: projections (win % * rm gms) KC 86-75 SOX 86-75 That leaves 1 gm in the balance. Case 1: They both win/lose it. SOX win the div by 1st tie-break (h2h). They own h2h 5-4 right now. Case 2: KC win, SOX lose. KC wins div. Case 3: SOX win, KC lose. SOX win div. SOX win the div 3 out of the 4 cases. 75% probability. It's a moot point, because the SOX aren't stopping. By this time next week, I predict KC with be 3 gb at a min. <- to the M's. It better be your best, or you'll get spanked again! :fthecubs -> for beating the D's Fifth reason: projections (win % * rm gms) KC 86-75 SOX 86-75 That leaves 1 gm in the balance. Case 1: They both win/lose it. SOX win the div by 1st tie-break (h2h). They own h2h 5-4 right now. Case 2: KC win, SOX lose. KC wins div. Case 3: SOX win, KC lose. SOX win div. SOX win the div 3 out of the 4 cases. 75% probability. It's a moot point, because the SOX aren't stopping. By this time next week, I predict KC with be 3 gb at a min. <- to the M's. It better be your best, or you'll get spanked again! :fthecubs -> for beating the D's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doubleM23 Posted August 2, 2003 Share Posted August 2, 2003 You're both wrong. Look at the %'s. First off, historically it's like 99.9% of the time that the team with the most wins has won the division. The exceptions being times when 2 teams fighting for a division don't play the same games. Secondly, it's a question of winning %. Right now the SOX have 58 wins, & KC has 57 wins. Based on KC's winning %, there is on avg a .533% chance that KC will win it's 58 game. Where there is a 100% chance that the SOX have. This is why %-wise the edge goes to the SOX. Thirdly, losses come into play in terms of magic numbers because of mathematical elimination. For a magic number to have any significance a team must be at least 2 gms back in the win-loss differential. Clearly that is not the case here. Forthly, the SOX own the head-head 5-4. It's a moot point, because the SOX aren't stopping. By this time next week, I predict KC with be 3 gb at a min. :fthecubs -> for beating the D's This makes so little sense it's unbearable... First off, yes, the team that has the most wins wins the division championship because of two reasons... a) the teams have played the same number of games and B) the team with the most wins generally also has the fewest losses. When 1 game or so can swing the balance of a division (for example, season ends and a team is 1/2 a game above/below the other), then they'd play that game. So while your first point is valid, it also validates Koch This's and my point. Secondly, if the Sox and Royals finish in a tie after all 162 have been played, the team with the Head-to-Head does not win the division. Instead, they win home field advantage in a 1-game play-off. Remember Seattle/Anaheim in '96 (IIRC) and the Giants/Cubs for the NL Wild-Card in 1998? With your "KC has a 53% chance to win 58" (which is mathematically absurd, BTW), flip the situation. There is a 46.7 chance the Royals will lose their 51st game, but the Sox have a 100% chance of losing that 51st. So what did you really prove? Also, winning percentage has no real valid use in predicting future games. It's use is purely for standings (teams with the higher winning percentage are placed higher) and this is most notably affected by wins/losses, as is shown by the fact that the Sox and Royals are in a virtual tie with one another but the Royals are truly (in a pure mathematical sense) sitting alone atop the American League Central. Of course, all of this is still very irrelevant (other than letting a multitude of Royal fans jack off to being in first place one, last time) because there are still 50-odd games left to be played. But, as you brought up, the fact that the Magic Number uses the loss column (not the win) CLEARLY shows that baseball puts more emphasis on losses rather than wins... You cannot be mathematically eliminated by the "wins" column; your fate rests solely in the hands of the loss column. But of course, because there are only 2 possible outcomes in baseball (win or lose), you can't seperate the wins and loss column, like you are apparently trying to do. Losses mean more than wins when comparing two teams that have not played an equal number of games. GO SOX! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted August 2, 2003 Share Posted August 2, 2003 It's a moot point, because the SOX aren't stopping. By this time next week, I predict KC with be 3 gb at a min. <- to the M's. It better be your best, or you'll get spanked again! :fthecubs -> for beating the D's Your first point is meaningless ( and you question my sense :roll:). Your 2nd point, I'm not sure on. But you may be right. If KC is close, I'm sure it will be mentioned in the media. However; the value of your 2nd pt is meaingless. Since h2h currently favors the SOX & progression is based on that being the case at the end, a 1 gm playoff favors the SOX in the case both teams finish with the same records. Thirdly, since we are talking about progression & it's based on past performance the KC winning % application towards their chances of winning game 58 is not absurd. What do you think the odds-makers go off of? PAST PERFORMANCE. As for the value of this pt I will agree it's weak at best. Forthly, you're dead wrong on magic number. By it's very definition it's the combination of WINS (front runner) & LOSSES (contender) needed for the front-runner to clinch. Since WINS is what the front runner controls that's were the primary importance lies. WINS mean more than LOSSES when a team leads a division in wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doubleM23 Posted August 3, 2003 Share Posted August 3, 2003 Forthly, you're dead wrong on magic number. By it's very definition it's the combination of WINS (front runner) & LOSSES (contender) needed for the front-runner to clinch. Since WINS is what the front runner controls that's were the primary importance lies. There's no mention of wins in the Magic Number formula. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doubleM23 Posted August 3, 2003 Share Posted August 3, 2003 http://www.obsoletecomputermuseum.org/magi...magicexpo.shtml One method, endorsed by Major League Baseball is to take the number of games remaining for the division leaders, add 1, then subtract the difference in the number of losses between the leaders and the second place team. In other words: M = G1 + 1 - ( L2 - L1 ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted August 3, 2003 Share Posted August 3, 2003 http://www.obsoletecomputermuseum.org/magi...magicexpo.shtml One method, endorsed by Major League Baseball is to take the number of games remaining for the division leaders, add 1, then subtract the difference in the number of losses between the leaders and the second place team. In other words: M = G1 + 1 - ( L2 - L1 ) MN = 163 - (Front runner's wins) - (Contender's losses) Tha't s the way the number counts down near the end. The leader controls their own destiny. That's why they call it a magic number. Ex. 9/8/2002 MN 82W, 60L SX 68W, 74L MN = 163 - 82 - 74 = 7 SOX went 5-2 in the next 7 MIN went 5-2 in the next 7 MN = 163 - 87 - 76 = 0. That's when MN clinched the division. For this year: KC = 163 - 58 - 52 = 53 SX = 163 - 58 - 50 = 55 MN = 163 - 54 - 50 = 59 CL = 163 - 45 - 50 = 68 DT = 163 - 29 - 50 = 84 Before the SOX get pulverized by the M's: KC = 163 - 57 - 51 = 55 SX = 163 - 58 - 50 = 55 Both team's have the same MN, but the SOX own the h2h tie-breaker given them a slight edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted August 3, 2003 Share Posted August 3, 2003 Magic Numbers: KC = 163 - 58 - 52 = 53 SX = 163 - 58 - 50 = 55 That's also why the SOX a 1 gb. A win cut's it by 1/2 gm, & a KC loss cut's it by another 1/2. If that happens today, it cuts the SOX MN to 53. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted August 3, 2003 Share Posted August 3, 2003 :fthecubs :sosasucks NLC Magic Numbers: Astros = 52 Cards = 54 sCrUBs = 57 Pitts = 61 Sins = 63 Brews = 68 3 of the 10 teams in the ALC+NLC should be eliminated by end of Aug. Both are weak but competitive divisions. No wonder people are enjoying MLB this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bones Posted August 4, 2003 Share Posted August 4, 2003 Sunday, August 3, 2003 Royals WIN Sox LOSE Twins WIN 1st-Royals 0 GB 2nd-White Sox 2 GB 3rd-Twins 4.5 GB Sox started 6-game road trip 4 GB and end only 2 GB. Let's get another sweep and sole possesion of FIRST PLACE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted August 4, 2003 Share Posted August 4, 2003 The best news to add after losing the SEA series is that Jose (I can't lose) Lima is on the 15 day DL. Lima will miss a start vs SOX, NYY, & MIN in that time. In his 7-0 stretch he beat SFG, TEX, STL, & SEA. So to say he will be sorely missed by KC is an understatement. The SOX MUST take advantage of that time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spiff Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 Monday, August 4, 2003 Royals WIN Sox LOSE Twins WIN 1st-Royals 0 GB 2nd-White Sox 3 GB 3rd-Twins 4.5 GB the very air is a mad despair, the throes of a living hell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 Magic Numbers: KC = 163 - 58 - 52 = 53 SX = 163 - 58 - 50 = 55 That's also why the SOX a 1 gb. A win cut's it by 1/2 gm, & a KC loss cut's it by another 1/2. If that happens today, it cuts the SOX MN to 53. Magic Numbers: KC = 163 - 60 - 54 = 49 SX = 163 - 58 - 50 = 55 MN= 163 - 56 - 50 = 57 Sheit. KC's MN is below 50 now. Anger: MuthaF'gdipsheitdumbarse LVP's on the SOX! I hate your F'g guts right now! Denial: Bring on HHH & the Big Show. My Brock SOX are ready to rumble. Depression: Damn bullpen. Coming down with a severe case of the runs like this. What's the 4th? Is it Limbo? I think the last 2 our acceptance & joy. The sCrUBs would know a lot about that. More therapy: :fthecubs :sosasucks :fthecubs :sosasucks :fthecubs :sosasucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spiff Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 Magic Numbers: KC = 163 - 58 - 52 = 53 SX = 163 - 58 - 50 = 55 That's also why the SOX a 1 gb. A win cut's it by 1/2 gm, & a KC loss cut's it by another 1/2. If that happens today, it cuts the SOX MN to 53. Magic Numbers: KC = 163 - 60 - 54 = 49 SX = 163 - 58 - 50 = 55 MN= 163 - 56 - 50 = 57 Sheit. KC's MN is below 50 now. Anger: MuthaF'gdipsheitdumbarse LVP's on the SOX! I hate your F'g guts right now! Denial: Bring on HHH & the Big Show. My Brock SOX are ready to rumble. Depression: Damn bullpen. Coming down with a severe case of the runs like this. What's the 4th? Is it Limbo? I think the last 2 our acceptance & joy. The sCrUBs would know a lot about that. More therapy: :fthecubs :sosasucks :fthecubs :sosasucks :fthecubs :sosasucks is the fourth one remorse? it's a total guess on my part, i haven't looked it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 Anger: MuthaF'gdipsheitdumbarse LVP's on the SOX! I hate your F'g guts right now! Denial: Bring on HHH & the Big Show. My Brock SOX are ready to rumble. Depression: Damn bullpen. Coming down with a severe case of the runs like this. is the fourth one remorse? it's a total guess on my part, i haven't looked it up. I messed it all up Denial, Anger, Depression, Bargaining, Acceptance, Hope I'm a little pschizo right now. Multi-personalities of Denial, Anger, & Depressio simultaneous. A long way from bargaining Oh well tomorrow's another day. E-LO has a way of curing what ails us. He's like the good Dr on the Brady Bunch that makes house calls. So to the Roys I now declare : If we can take 2/3, magic numbers: Roys 49, Sox 51, Minny 53 (if they win). Somebody call up Tom the cat to get rid of these pesky Minny mice. They're turning into rats. And for those needing to vent anger away from OUR SOX: :fthecubs :sosasucks :fthecubs :sosasucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spiff Posted August 6, 2003 Share Posted August 6, 2003 Tuesday, August 5, 2003 Royals LOSE Sox WIN Twins LOSE 1st-Royals 0 GB 2nd-White Sox 2 GB 3rd-Twins 4.5 GB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted August 6, 2003 Share Posted August 6, 2003 ALC Central Race : Magic Numbers KCR: 163 - 60 - 54 = 49 SOX: 163 - 59 - 51 = 53 MIN: 163 - 56 - 51 = 57 Thank you E-LO, Wunsch, & Marte! And of course The Big Hurt! Let's get them tomorrow & hopefully the Minny Mice will lose again, & the SOX will be just 2 back in the Magic Number column. GO WHITE SOX! I think the first team to get to 30 will win the division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted August 7, 2003 Share Posted August 7, 2003 ALC Central Race : Magic Numbers KCR: 163 - 60 - 54 = 49 SOX: 163 - 59 - 51 = 53 MIN: 163 - 56 - 51 = 57 Thank you E-LO, Wunsch, & Marte! And of course The Big Hurt! Let's get them tomorrow & hopefully the Minny Mice will lose again, & the SOX will be just 2 back in the Magic Number column. GO WHITE SOX! I think the first team to get to 30 will win the division. ALC Central Race : Magic Numbers KCR: 163 - 60 - 54 = 49 SOX: 163 - 60 - 52 = 51 MIN: 163 - 56 - 51 = 57 Thank you Bart! JM , more tinkering or stupid pitching moves! Please, for the love of SOX fans cut the crap out. You don't take out Bart when he has a 2 hit shutout with 99 pitches. Get a F'g clue or you'll mismanage this team out of the race. GO WHITE SOX! I think the first team to get to 30 will win the division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bmr31 Posted August 7, 2003 Share Posted August 7, 2003 ALC Central Race : Magic Numbers KCR: 163 - 60 - 54 = 49 SOX: 163 - 59 - 51 = 53 MIN: 163 - 56 - 51 = 57 Thank you E-LO, Wunsch, & Marte! And of course The Big Hurt! Let's get them tomorrow & hopefully the Minny Mice will lose again, & the SOX will be just 2 back in the Magic Number column. GO WHITE SOX! I think the first team to get to 30 will win the division. ALC Central Race : Magic Numbers KCR: 163 - 60 - 54 = 49 SOX: 163 - 60 - 52 = 51 MIN: 163 - 56 - 51 = 57 Thank you Bart! JM <- , more tinkering or stupid pitching moves! Please, for the love of SOX fans cut the crap out. You don't take out Bart when he has a 2 hit shutout with 99 pitches. Get a F'g clue or you'll mismanage this team out of the race. GO WHITE SOX! I think the first team to get to 30 will win the division. Guys, he took Colon out because he hurt his back. Lets not blame EVERYTHING on JM okay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted August 7, 2003 Share Posted August 7, 2003 Guys, he took Colon out because he hurt his back. Lets not blame EVERYTHING on JM okay? Oh, but BMR, it's so EASY! If Koch gets hurt, guess what....blame Manuel! If we get no-hit....blame Manuel! If Garland gets lit up...blame Manuel! If the stock market falls....blame Manuel! If the Packers win the Superbowl(God forbid they ever do that again).....blame Manuel! OK, on a more serious note, I agree 100%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spiff Posted August 7, 2003 Share Posted August 7, 2003 Wednesday August 6, 2003 Royals LOSE Sox WIN Twins WIN 1st-Royals 0 GB 2nd-White Sox 1 GB 3rd-Twins 3.5 GB o ye of little faith Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YASNY Posted August 7, 2003 Share Posted August 7, 2003 Those damn Twins keep hanging around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 7, 2003 Share Posted August 7, 2003 ALC Central Race : Magic Numbers KCR: 163 - 60 - 54 = 49 SOX: 163 - 59 - 51 = 53 MIN: 163 - 56 - 51 = 57 Thank you E-LO, Wunsch, & Marte! And of course The Big Hurt! Let's get them tomorrow & hopefully the Minny Mice will lose again, & the SOX will be just 2 back in the Magic Number column. GO WHITE SOX! I think the first team to get to 30 will win the division. ALC Central Race : Magic Numbers KCR: 163 - 60 - 54 = 49 SOX: 163 - 60 - 52 = 51 MIN: 163 - 56 - 51 = 57 Thank you Bart! JM , more tinkering or stupid pitching moves! Please, for the love of SOX fans cut the crap out. You don't take out Bart when he has a 2 hit shutout with 99 pitches. Get a F'g clue or you'll mismanage this team out of the race. GO WHITE SOX! I think the first team to get to 30 will win the division. Get a F'ing clue and know what the hell is going on before you go spouting off... Remember the trainer going out to see Colon in the 8th... He said he felt a twinge in his back, so the "tinkerer" looking for the best interest of his big money pitcher and team, decided not to risk further injury and took him out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RibbieRubarb Posted August 7, 2003 Share Posted August 7, 2003 Gabby Johnson is RIGHT! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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