He's hitting into extremely poor luck (.207 BABIP), making Phegley just another example of why batting average isn't useful as an evaluation of true ability. His strikeout rates (8.8% swinging strikeout and 0.0% called strikeout) are both great so he clearly hasn't been over matched at the plate. He does have a high fly ball rate thus far which would bring his expected batting average down some but it should also result in a very strong home run rate, which is obviously a good thing. Like other have said though, it's too small of a sample size to make any kind of true evaluation but I don't see anything to be worried about. In fact, if there's one thing I'm most certain about from this draft class it's Phegley's ability to hit, he was a very polished, advanced college hitter and those guys have by far the highest rate of reaching the Majors and turning into average or better players.

 

You really, really, really love sabermetrics.

Dan Hudson got to be one of our best pitching prospects to come through this system in a couple years. I loved watching Poreda make his way up, and who can forget the domination of B-Mac, but Hudson's done a hell of a job since his draft year.

 

That's really not saying much. But your premise is real. Hudson appears to be a stud in the making (I have to temper my enthusiasm. As I've been severely burned in the past by the likes of Jon Rauch, Dan Wright, ect).

Fathom, I know McCarthy shot up thru the system quickly but what I can see of Huddie's upside reports and the box score his K rate is much higher. McCarthy was a sinker baller wasn't he? Or am I making the wrong comparison?

 

McCarthy had a straight as an arrow fastball that he could locate, with a zito-esk curve

McCarthy had a straight as an arrow fastball that he could locate, with a zito-esk curve

 

Nice change as well and can locate like very few can. But.. he was a fly ball pitcher.

At this point there's no point in rushing Hudson to the majors as we did with B-Mac even though someone like Richard is certainly struggling ATM.

 

The stats are very good on Hudson though obviously. 21BB's in 97.1IP, and a 50% GB% even though that number in B-Ham is 0.62 GO/AO.

 

Little cause for conern though, he has a 10.38 ERA with runners on base, but he also has a 0.00 ERA in 21.2IP for B-Ham with the bases empty.

 

I wonder how many runners have stolen bases off him this season, and what Dan's pick-off move is like also.

By the way, Danks made a spectacular running diving catch in right center to save a double or triple.

He's so good in center. I can't wait to see him play the position again.

 

His defense was supposed to what made him a top pick. Even at the draft his offense was going to be what he needed to work on.

Actually, his position was what made him a top pick. His defense is average.

McCarthy had a straight as an arrow fastball that he could locate, with a zito-esk curve

 

Which showed in McCarthy's HR rate, which was the only real chink in his armor through AA - and actually, that was only in Kannapolis.

 

Hudson has allowed 10 HR in 167 minor league innings with 202 K and 43 BB...about a 5 to 1 K to BB.

 

McCarthy in his comparable 2003 / 2004 years (Great Falls and then all the way up to Birmingham in 2004) had 273 IP, 22 HR, 45 BB, 327 K

 

Converting into rate stats (per 9 IP)

 

Hudson: 0.53 HR/9, 2.32 BB/9, 10.89 K/9

 

McCarthy: 0.72 HR/9, 1.48 BB/9, 10.78 K/9

 

So, similar, with Hudson having a better HR rate and McCarthy having a much better walk rate. The average HR is worth about 1.4 expected runs vs. 0.3 expected runs for a walk, so it's pretty much a wash.

 

McCarthy was 2 (baseball) years younger than Hudson at these stops, however (15 months in real years). I still think McCarthy was overall a better prospect than Hudson is now because of age/BB rate, but we'll see. If Hudson has more movement on his stuff, he'll likely turn out better. McCarthy is your standard 3/4 starter right now but I think there's still a chance he's a top of the rotation guy if he can figure it out. He's still only 26.

That's really not saying much. But your premise is real. Hudson appears to be a stud in the making (I have to temper my enthusiasm. As I've been severely burned in the past by the likes of Jon Rauch, Dan Wright, ect).

 

I really believe both of those guys end up being very good major league pitchers if they don't have the major arm injuries. The shoulder injuries really killed Rauch and Wright.

At this point there's no point in rushing Hudson to the majors as we did with B-Mac even though someone like Richard is certainly struggling ATM.

 

The stats are very good on Hudson though obviously. 21BB's in 97.1IP, and a 50% GB% even though that number in B-Ham is 0.62 GO/AO.

 

Little cause for conern though, he has a 10.38 ERA with runners on base, but he also has a 0.00 ERA in 21.2IP for B-Ham with the bases empty.

 

I wonder how many runners have stolen bases off him this season, and what Dan's pick-off move is like also.

 

Yeah, he must have a big problem working out of the stretch. You don't mind a guy giving up solo homers, it is the guys on base homers that kill you.

He's hitting into extremely poor luck (.207 BABIP), making Phegley just another example of why batting average isn't useful as an evaluation of true ability. His strikeout rates (8.8% swinging strikeout and 0.0% called strikeout) are both great so he clearly hasn't been over matched at the plate. He does have a high fly ball rate thus far which would bring his expected batting average down some but it should also result in a very strong home run rate, which is obviously a good thing. Like other have said though, it's too small of a sample size to make any kind of true evaluation but I don't see anything to be worried about. In fact, if there's one thing I'm most certain about from this draft class it's Phegley's ability to hit, he was a very polished, advanced college hitter and those guys have by far the highest rate of reaching the Majors and turning into average or better players.

 

Scouting reports like this from BA are hard to take about Phegley...

 

"Scouts aren't sold on his future production or his defense, however. Some think his bat is a little slow, and he didn't look impressive with wood bats during Team USA tryouts last summer or Indiana's scout day last fall. He bats out of an exaggerated crouch, which makes it difficult for him to catch up to velocity at the top of the strike zone. Phegley bulked up after batting .232 without a homer as a freshman, and his thicker build has cost him defensively. He has plus arm strength but a slow release, leading to average results in shutting down the running game. He has caught 31 percent of basestealers over the last two years. He is a below-average receiver who has been exposed this spring by Eric Arnett's explosive fastball and Matt Bashore's breaking pitches."

 

 

 

Hopefully he can adjust to the wood bats like fathom mentioned.

This was a fun thread to read through. Good discussions in here.

Scouting reports like this from BA are hard to take about Phegley...

 

"Scouts aren't sold on his future production or his defense, however. Some think his bat is a little slow, and he didn't look impressive with wood bats during Team USA tryouts last summer or Indiana's scout day last fall. He bats out of an exaggerated crouch, which makes it difficult for him to catch up to velocity at the top of the strike zone. Phegley bulked up after batting .232 without a homer as a freshman, and his thicker build has cost him defensively. He has plus arm strength but a slow release, leading to average results in shutting down the running game. He has caught 31 percent of basestealers over the last two years. He is a below-average receiver who has been exposed this spring by Eric Arnett's explosive fastball and Matt Bashore's breaking pitches."

 

 

 

Hopefully he can adjust to the wood bats like fathom mentioned.

I at least look at the progress that Flowers' has made behind the plate this season, and I think there's certainly room for hope with Phegley down the line.

 

And that's a big benefit about having a good minor league system in place in terms of coaching etc. which the Sox have certainly improved on over the past couple of years.