Financial News

[NorthSideSox72]

NEW YORK (AP) -- People are starting to buy homes again, lifting a battered industry that is bracing for its worst sales year in more than a decade.

 

Signed contracts to purchase homes rose in November, the fourth increase in five months. That should give the housing market a boost in the first few months of the new year because there's usually a one- to two-month lag between a sales contract and a completed deal.

 

Economists cautioned that a major reason for the jump is that people are buying foreclosed homes, which sell at steep discounts and weigh on the broader market. Another obstacle is the sudden spike in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which only weeks ago had fallen a 40-year low.

 

Still many economists expect sales to gradually rise next year as the economy adds more jobs and home prices stabilize.

 

"Sales appear to be picking up and we expect better sales in the next several months," said Patrick Newport, a housing economist at IHS Global Insight. "A lot of that is because the job market is improving."

 

The National Association of Realtors said Thursday its index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes increased 3.5 percent last month from a downwardly revised reading in October. Contract signings were up in the West and Northeast, but down in the South and Midwest.

The foreclosures being bought up explains the continuing positive sales trends but decling or bounded prices. This is good overall, for the health of the real estate market. We're getting more distressed properties off the market, while the rate of new foreclosure filiings and late payments is dropping, which is the precise combination we want to see.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

It seems like I've become the bulletin guy in this thread, so here we go...

 

From yesterday...

--ISM manufacturing index came in at 57.0 for Dec, up from 56.6 for Nov and exactly at expectation

--Construction spending was up 0.4%, better than the 0.1% expectation, but down from the 0.7% prior month reading

 

To watch today:

 

Factory orders for Nov, 9am (expectations: 0.3% drop)

FOMC minutes, time ? (expectations: no rate moves imminent, but comments on state of economy are key)

Auto sales numbers for Dec, time TBD (expectations: 1.13 M units)

 

[NorthSideSox72]

It seems like I've become the bulletin guy in this thread, so here we go...

 

From yesterday...

--ISM manufacturing index came in at 57.0 for Dec, up from 56.6 for Nov and exactly at expectation

--Construction spending was up 0.4%, better than the 0.1% expectation, but down from the 0.7% prior month reading

 

To watch today:

 

Factory orders for Nov, 9am (expectations: 0.3% drop)

FOMC minutes, time ? (expectations: no rate moves imminent, but comments on state of economy are key)

Auto sales numbers for Dec, time TBD (expectations: 1.13 M units)

Factory orders surprised up, rose 0.7% versus expectations of a drop. Non-defense excluding aircraft rose 2.6%. Excluding transportation generally, it was 2.4%.

 

 

[Jenksismyhero]

This should make everyone happy, assuming it actually happens:

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70306W20110104

[NorthSideSox72]

Official government numbers for jobs added don't come out until Friday, with expectations of 100k jobs added in December. But ADP releases their own report typically a few days earlier, and tends to be a good general predictor. Their number came in today, with a pretty huge 297k jobs added, almost triple expectations.

[Balta1701]

Official government numbers for jobs added don't come out until Friday, with expectations of 100k jobs added in December. But ADP releases their own report typically a few days earlier, and tends to be a good general predictor. Their number came in today, with a pretty huge 297k jobs added, almost triple expectations.

I just read that the consensus is 140k jobs added, not 100k?

[NorthSideSox72]

I just read that the consensus is 140k jobs added, not 100k?

Is that the BB, Briefing, or some other concensus? I saw 100k, but keep in mind these things vary, depending on who compiles said concensus numbers.

 

[Balta1701]

The article I saw about it said they asked someone from the reporting agency about seasonal or other effects, and they felt that there wasn't a significant shortage due to any of that. Hard to say for sure though. We'll see next week.

409k this week.

[Balta1701]

Is that the BB, Briefing, or some other concensus? I saw 100k, but keep in mind these things vary, depending on who compiles said concensus numbers.

NSS72 FTW!

The economy created far fewer jobs than expected in December, suggesting the Federal Reserve will complete its asset buying program, but the unemployment rate dropped to its lowest in more than 1-1/2 years.

 

Non-farm payrolls increased 103,000, the Labor Department said on Friday, below economists' expectations for 175,000. Private hiring rose 113,000, while government employment fell 10,000.

 

However, overall employment for October and November was revised to show 70,000 more job gains than previously reported. The unemployment rate fell to 9.4 percent, the lowest since May 2009, from 9.8 percent in November.

 

Economists raised their employment forecasts after payrolls processing company ADP Employer Services said on Wednesday private employers added 297,000 in December -- the largest gain on ADP records dating to 2000.

Still not enough to match population growth.

 

The Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 64.3% in December. This is the lowest level since the early '80s. (This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years.)

[Jenksismyhero]

Dunno if this is the place to start this discussion, but it's financial "news."

 

Top Illinois Democrats (Madigan and Quinn included) seem to agree on a plan to increase the state income tax by 75% and add an extra dollar on cigarette sales.

 

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2011/01/06/tax...-than-expected/

 

Ignoring the SHOCKING news that Quinn is agreeing to a deal that he said he'd veto during the election season (any increase over 1%), what do people think? I think we all know taxes are going to go up some time, but I dunno if this is the time to do it.

[southsider2k5]

Quinn has been absolutely spineless from day one. He had a chance to own Illinois and has pretty much fallen down at every chance.

[jasonxctf]

illinois needs the $. No way around it. Plus we've got one of the lowest income tax rates in the country.

[Rex Kickass]

It's still a p**** move to completely contradict a campaign promise within weeks of your election. Especially when you are already the Governor and knew the score when you made the promise to begin with.

[Balta1701]

It's still a p**** move to completely contradict a campaign promise within weeks of your election. Especially when you are already the Governor and knew the score when you made the promise to begin with.

Oh come on, at least he's actually being honest about the state's financial situation. That's a hell of a lot better than 95% of the people who just took office around the country.

[southsider2k5]

Oh come on, at least he's actually being honest about the state's financial situation. That's a hell of a lot better than 95% of the people who just took office around the country.

 

What? He lied his ass off the whole election.

[StrangeSox]

Still, it looks bad. Even if he's doing what he thinks is the right thing, he lied in the election because he knew it would get him votes. Maybe he sees the writing on the wall that this will be his only term and doesn't care.

[Balta1701]

What? He lied his ass off the whole election.

And now, he's actually dealing with a budget deficit, rather than pretending that some mythical "rooting out waste and fraud" will somehow make it all better.

[StrangeSox]

Balta.

[Balta1701]

Balta.

Trust me...you're better off in the long run if a politician lies to get elected and then makes painful decisions to deal with issues rather than keeping his mouth shut to get elected and then pretends that there are no long-term issues to deal with.

[lostfan]

You guys in IL don't really pay anything in income taxes.

[Rex Kickass]

Oh come on, at least he's actually being honest about the state's financial situation. That's a hell of a lot better than 95% of the people who just took office around the country.

 

That's fine. But be honest about it always. You can't even make the excuse here that he didn't know what was going on. He was the governor when he was elected. I am not necessarily saying that this income tax increase doesn't make sense. It very well might. I'm not opposed to governments raising taxes when necessary. I am opposed to politicians making b****ass moves by lying about their true position through their teeth.

[Balta1701]

That's fine. But be honest about it always. You can't even make the excuse here that he didn't know what was going on. He was the governor when he was elected. I am not necessarily saying that this income tax increase doesn't make sense. It very well might. I'm not opposed to governments raising taxes when necessary. I am opposed to politicians making b****ass moves by lying about their true position through their teeth.

I think in principle we're all opposed to that...the problem is...those b****a** moves work! They work in every state. They work at the federal level. John Boehner has been asked to name a single program he'd cut to reduce the deficit about a hundred times over the last year, and he still doesn't have an answer. He didn't have an answer yesterday.

 

If the B****A** moves are going to work, and there's no skeptical or honest alternative or press to call the candidate on it, then at least give me the candidate who gets into office and suddenly deals with the situation, rather than continuing to pretend there's no problem.

[Rex Kickass]

I think in principle we're all opposed to that...the problem is...those b****a** moves work! They work in every state. They work at the federal level. John Boehner has been asked to name a single program he'd cut to reduce the deficit about a hundred times over the last year, and he still doesn't have an answer. He didn't have an answer yesterday.

 

If the B****A** moves are going to work, and there's no skeptical or honest alternative or press to call the candidate on it, then at least give me the candidate who gets into office and suddenly deals with the situation, rather than continuing to pretend there's no problem.

 

Sorry, I fail to see "They all do it and it works" as a reason to pardon someone for making a b****ass move.

[StrangeSox]

Trust me...you're better off in the long run if a politician lies to get elected and then makes painful decisions to deal with issues rather than keeping his mouth shut to get elected and then pretends that there are no long-term issues to deal with.

 

The problem is that it ultimately still serves Republican mantras about economic and taxation policy. He never tried to make a case for it, but instead promised to fix problems without raising taxes more than a point.

 

I know where you're going to go with that: if he said this was his plan in October, Brady would have won and (assuming Quinn's doing the right thing here) the state would be in worse shape overall. I get it. I still don't approve of lying for votes.

[Balta1701]

The problem is that it ultimately still serves Republican mantras about economic and taxation policy. He never tried to make a case for it, but instead promised to fix problems without raising taxes more than a point.

 

I know where you're going to go with that: if he said this was his plan in October, Brady would have won and (assuming Quinn's doing the right thing here) the state would be in worse shape overall. I get it. I still don't approve of lying for votes.

Or...at some point...there needs to be a skeptical group, perhaps protected by an amendment to the constitution, which calls out political candidates who fail to answer simple questions or do simple math.