Financial News

[Balta1701]

I'm actually impressed, it's been more than 2 months since we've had a serious "Greece crisis" focus. That's better than usual!

Markets are really getting hammered to start the week.

 

The euro is getting whacked.

 

US futures are getting hit.

 

The Aussie dollar is at its lows of the year.

 

Oil is tanking. It's now below $97/barrel.

 

So what's up? Greece, basically.

 

In a note out tonight, Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos explains why the outcome in Greece is, in his words, "a significant market-negative surprise."

 

Basically, the two big pro-austerity parties got a stunningly low 32% of the vote, meaning that the overwhelming intention of voters was "anti-programme" (against the existing austerity deal). That makes it extremely unlikely that the current cuts-for-bailouts deal can go ahead easily.

 

Saravelos sees three outcomes.

 

It's not incredibly likely, but it's still possible that a solidly pro-programme coalition can be cobbled together in parliament. We'll know more in the next couple of days.

A more likely outcome is that a broader coalition government is built, but with an explicit mandate to renegotiate the bailout, instantly creating Euro-wide uncertainty.

And finally, it's possible that new elections will be called for this summer, which would throw the whole bailout deal into question, since those elections would be timed right around the next time the next tranche of bailout aide is coming.

 

So basically there's now a very slim chance for an easy way out.

 

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/duetsche-ba...5#ixzz1u8Yv4WQT

[kapkomet]

Ahhh, just in time for the Nobama administration to come in and save the day in his oh so moderate overtones.

 

[Balta1701]

Ahhh, just in time for the Nobama administration to come in and save the day in his oh so moderate overtones.

I'm picturing this post as written while on a lot of cocaine, writhing around and spouting out words, and then it makes sense.

[kapkomet]

I'm picturing this post as written while on a lot of cocaine, writhing around and spouting out words, and then it makes sense.

 

 

[Cknolls]

If B.O can get the participation rate down to, say,63%, and increase the already outrageous number of people receiving SSI, he may achieve a 5 % unemployment rate by November. If they put as much effort in regulating the fraud in the SSI program, or better yet, if the gov't actually accounted for the fraud in the unemployment numbers there would be no way in hell this idiot would get re-elected. Because the unemployment rate right now, with say a 10% fraud rate, would be north of 11%. Try selling that to America.

[mr_genius]

comon guise, i was watchin MSNBC and they say the unemployment is going down. that means the economy is good.

 

 

Obama 2012

[Cknolls]

comon guise, i was watchin MSNBC and they say the unemployment is going down. that means the economy is good.

 

 

Obama 2012

 

 

My unemployment benefits are running out. No worries, just apply for SSI, they don't check for disabilities. That way you are on the dole for life. How sweet is that? Only in America, baby.

[StrangeSox]

Yeah, those people on SSI disability are living the high life!

[Cknolls]

Yeah, those people on SSI disability are living the high life!

 

 

That reply makes no sense as to what we were talking about. Who said anything about them living the high life. More regulation is a two way street. No counting the fraudsters in the unemployment number is dishonest. But I understand why. Because including them means no re-election. So carry on with the charade.

[StrangeSox]

You said committing SSI fraud and "being on the dole for life" is "sweet." You could change my statement to living the sweet life and it still works.

 

How do you count the people defrauding SSI with illegitimate disability claims? What sort of real estimates are there for this percentage?

 

Here's an old letter out of the Bush DOJ that is inline with your 10% ballpark, but it doesn't site data. On the other hand, here's a more recent article that claims the fraud rate is low.

Edited May 8, 2012 by StrangeSox

[Cknolls]

You said committing SSI fraud and "being on the dole for life" is "sweet." You could change my statement to living the sweet life and it still works.

 

How do you count the people defrauding SSI with illegitimate disability claims? What sort of real estimates are there for this percentage?

 

 

Oh come on, the gov't is all knowing. Like I said if its 10%, that is huge and would have a large impact on the unemployment rate. Over 2 % points. Here is a novel idea. Make it harder to qualify for benefits. And depression from not finding a job does not count.

[StrangeSox]

Oh come on, the gov't is all knowing. Like I said if its 10%, that is huge and would have a large impact on the unemployment rate. Over 2 % points.

 

If it's 10%, that would be huge. But I really don't see any reason to believe that it is that high. Recent congressional testimony seems to indicate it's closer to 1.5%. My google searching is turning up a bunch of conservative blog hits going back to an article by Mike Sherlock that infers it's 10%.

 

Making it more difficult to qualify for benefits will mean that some who make legitimate claims will be turned away. A 10% fraud rate would be unacceptable, but a 1.5% rate doesn't warrant new restrictions that would impact legitimate claims imo.

[southsider2k5]

If it's 10%, that would be huge. But I really don't see any reason to believe that it is that high. Recent congressional testimony seems to indicate it's closer to 1.5%. My google searching is turning up a bunch of conservative blog hits going back to an article by Mike Sherlock that infers it's 10%.

 

Making it more difficult to qualify for benefits will mean that some who make legitimate claims will be turned away. A 10% fraud rate would be unacceptable, but a 1.5% rate doesn't warrant new restrictions that would impact legitimate claims imo.

 

A 1.5% fraud rate is insane in any other industry except government.

[StrangeSox]

[/b]

 

A 1.5% fraud rate is insane in any other industry except government.

 

Retail "shrinkage" rates are comparable.

 

Health insurance industry fraud rates are higher.

[StrangeSox]

Also important to note that government isn't an "industry"

[southsider2k5]

Retail "shrinkage" rates are comparable.

 

Health insurance industry fraud rates are higher.

 

Government is the biggest single employer we have in the country. It is also the biggest single landowner in the country. Call it whatever you like.

 

These examples don't help you much honestly. Retail has all kinds of security, and is constantly doing things prevent fraud. Employee searches, cameras, review of each non-cash transaction, undercover security etc.

 

The second is just another great example of your government failing.

[StrangeSox]

Government is the biggest single employer we have in the country. It is also the biggest single landowner in the country. Call it whatever you like.

 

I'll call it "government," which is distinctly different in constitution and purpose from private industry.

 

These examples don't help you much honestly. Retail has all kinds of security, and is constantly doing things prevent fraud. Employee searches, cameras, undercover security etc.

 

Actually that kinda really helps me! Retail has all of these mechanisms and controls and still can't match SSI's low fraud rate. SSA does investigate fraud claims, by the way. The letter from the Bush DOJ that I linked to cites statistics on the number of cases and convictions. Are you advocating that the size of the SSA grows to combat fraud?

 

The second is just another great example of your government failing.

 

How is that example of "your government failing?" The testimony says its a problem in both public and private sector systems.

Edited May 8, 2012 by StrangeSox

[southsider2k5]

I'll call it "government," which is distinctly different in constitution and purpose from private industry.

 

 

 

Actually that kinda really helps me! Retail has all of these mechanisms and controls and still can't match SSI's low fraud rate. SSA does investigate fraud claims, by the way. The letter from the Bush DOJ that I linked to cites statistics on the number of cases and convictions. Are you advocating that the size of the SSA grows to combat fraud?

 

 

 

How is that example of "your government failing?" The testimony says its a problem in both public and private sector systems.

 

Do you really think if social security were being bought off a rack somewhere the fraud rate wouldn't be much higher? The government has a closed controlled process from beginning to end, in which it can access extremely personal information, and it still has a fail rate as high as retail stores.

 

Out of curiosity, what is the government's conviction rate for SSI fraud? Out of those 1.5%, how many actually get caught, convicted, and punished?

[StrangeSox]

Here's an article with even higher estimates of fraud rates in the health insurance industry

[southsider2k5]

Here's an article with even higher estimates of fraud rates in the health insurance industry

 

Again, government oversight and regulation doing a great job there.

[StrangeSox]

Do you really think if social security were being bought off a rack somewhere the fraud rate wouldn't be much higher?

 

It'd probably be right in line with the health insurance industry fraud rates since the two are pretty comparable.

 

The government has a closed controlled process from beginning to end, in which it can access extremely personal information, and it still has a fail rate as high as retail stores.

 

It can access all sorts of data, but what it can't do is divine that a claim is fraudulent based on that information without significantly increased investigation resources.

 

If you want to argue against allowing mental disability depression claims resulting from long-term unemployment, then you're talking about something besides fraud.

 

Out of curiosity, what is the government's conviction rate for SSI fraud? Out of those 1.5%, how many actually get caught, convicted, and punished?

 

http://www.justice.gov/usao/eousa/foia_rea...om/usab5206.pdf

Between October 1, 2002 and March 31,

2003, the Office of the Inspector General for the

Social Security Administration (SSA/OIG)

received 51,311 fraud allegations from a variety

of sources, including private citizens (23,951),

anonymous tips (8,782), SSA employees (7,402),

law enforcement (10,120), public agencies (323),

and SSA benefits recipients (726). See SSA/OIG

2003 Semiannual Report to Congress, available at

http://www.ssa.gov/oig. At the same time,

SSA/OIG opened 9,170 potential fraud cases and

investigated and closed approximately 9,389 cases

nationwide. During the same period,

investigations by special agents of SSA/OIG

culminated in 2,677 arrests and indictments

involving Social Security fraud, which resulted in

1,008 criminal convictions.

 

Here's the latest report:

http://oig.ssa.gov/sites/default/files/sem...all%20FINAL.pdf

The numbers are similar to the 2004 letter quoted above.

[StrangeSox]

Again, government oversight and regulation doing a great job there.

How is it the fault of the government if private insurance companies are defrauded?

[southsider2k5]

How is it the fault of the government if private insurance companies are defrauded?

 

They write the rules and regulations.

[southsider2k5]

It'd probably be right in line with the health insurance industry fraud rates since the two are pretty comparable.

 

 

 

It can access all sorts of data, but what it can't do is divine that a claim is fraudulent based on that information without significantly increased investigation resources.

 

If you want to argue against allowing mental disability depression claims resulting from long-term unemployment, then you're talking about something besides fraud.

 

 

 

http://www.justice.gov/usao/eousa/foia_rea...om/usab5206.pdf

Between October 1, 2002 and March 31,

2003, the Office of the Inspector General for the

Social Security Administration (SSA/OIG)

received 51,311 fraud allegations from a variety

of sources, including private citizens (23,951),

anonymous tips (8,782), SSA employees (7,402),

law enforcement (10,120), public agencies (323),

and SSA benefits recipients (726). See SSA/OIG

2003 Semiannual Report to Congress, available at

http://www.ssa.gov/oig. At the same time,

SSA/OIG opened 9,170 potential fraud cases and

investigated and closed approximately 9,389 cases

nationwide. During the same period,

investigations by special agents of SSA/OIG

culminated in 2,677 arrests and indictments

involving Social Security fraud, which resulted in

1,008 criminal convictions.

 

Here's the latest report:

http://oig.ssa.gov/sites/default/files/sem...all%20FINAL.pdf

The numbers are similar to the 2004 letter quoted above.

 

Just like I thought. Nothing compared to the fraud rate.

[StrangeSox]

They write the rules and regulations.

 

Is the government at fault when someone embezzles from their company? Are you arguing for increased regulation?

 

I'm not arguing against combating fraud here. I'm saying that 1.5% doesn't seem especially high to warrant combating fraud at the expense of legitimate claims. You will never have a zero-fraud system for anything. Obviously, in the health care industry, there are much higher fraud rates and fraud should be combated there.