Well, the ObamaCare/Medicaid hits are going to land hardest on 15 states.

12 of them voted Trump. Hawaii, Virginia and Massachusetts are the only exceptions. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

 

 

As far as Bitcoin goes, Jack Bogle (Vanguard) predicted only 4% average ROR over the next decade...why not, as long as it's only 5-10% of your assets and you can afford to lose it all.

 

For most "normal" investors, perhaps it's time to start shifting to stocks paying higher dividends with almost all of the asset price gains from the tax plan already baked into the market and Fed interest rate policy eventually cooling down the economy. Otoh, all the stock buybacks (funded by corporate tax cuts/taxpayers) will help investors, but the question is how much more?

 

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/opinion/...col-left-region

What Happens if the Tax Bill is a Revenue Disaster? Paul Krugman

 

 

 

For one thing, the bulk of the gains will go to the rich, who probably spend less of a marginal dollar. And this will be especially true for rich people receiving what they suspect will be transient income gains.

 

So, imagine yourself as a wealthy, liquid taxpayer experiencing a surge in after-tax income because your accountant has found clever ways to exploit the idiocy of new legislation. It will be fun and lucrative, but you’d have to suspect that the fun will end eventually – that even this GOP, with this leadership, will eventually close the most outrageous loopholes. So we might see big deficits that have relatively little real effect, because the winners from system-gaming save most of their gains.

 

Notice, by the way, that this isn’t the conclusion I’d like to reach on political grounds. Given how terrible this bill is, I’d like to claim that it will lead to immediate market disaster. But I try not to engage in motivated reasoning (although sometimes I give in to temptation, then apologize); and I just don’t see a market disaster even if we see the expected epidemic of tax avoidance.

 

What about the politics? OK, here I don’t have a clear model, so this is much more speculative. Still, what happens if the deficit balloons, and it’s clear that gaming of the tax bill is a major factor?

 

We know what Ryan and McConnell will try to do: they’ll try to use deficits as an excuse to cut safety-net programs. But will they be able to get away with this with the memory of the tax scam still fresh in everyone’s memory? I’m pretty cynical about centrists and the propensity of the media to be taken in by charlatans, but I think this would probably be a bait and switch too far.

 

Put it this way: Republicans would surely use big deficits as an excuse to propose big cuts in social programs, but they’d face a barrage of hostile media coverage, plus lots of public demonstrations as in the case of health care, all reminding everyone that these deficits were created by their own dishonest promises just a few months earlier.

 

And imagine, as we should, that all of this would go along with many front-page stories about dubious business types abusing the new loopholes. Doesn’t this sound like a political disaster for the GOP?

 

They could, of course, simply ignore the deficit and leave Medicare alone. But my guess is that they won’t be able to help themselves, that they’ll be prisoners of their own rhetoric even as the most unpopular legislation in history becomes pure political poison.

 

So that’s my prediction: minor market impact, but quite probably a political disaster for the GOP as it becomes even clearer that their tax policies reward scammers.

 

Of course, all this may be overshadowed by constitutional crisis. But that’s for another essay.

 

 

 

Bitcoin free falling a bit today.

New Republican tax plan lowers the top rate at the behest of their wealthy donors in states like New York and California that'll be hammered by eliminating SALT deductions. Will also obviously massively benefit the wealthy in states not hurt by salt changes.

 

Truly a tax plan for the middle class.

DOT says airlines won’t have to disclose baggage fees: What consumers can do

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dot-says-air...-212725108.html

 

 

On Dec. 7, the Department of Transportation (DOT) released a statement announcing its intention to remove two proposed rules requiring airlines to disclose ancillary fees at booking. This includes baggage fees, which pulled in approximately $1.2 billion for airlines between July and Sept.

 

These rules were originally proposed by the Obama administration in January 2017, but were never finalized by the new administration after President Trump took office. Now they’ve been officially withdrawn, leaving supporters frustrated and out of options.

Edited December 14, 20178 yr by caulfield12

They raised the child tax credit a couple hundred bucks so Rubio is back to yes.

 

The newly negotiated amount is $1400, which is less than the original Senate plan ($2000) or House plan ($1600). Gotta fund those top bracket cuts.

Edited December 15, 20178 yr by StrangeSox

It turns out Rubio's changes actually reduce the overall increase in the child tax credit, per JTC. More great outcomes from slamming as much garbage together as they can.

 

https://twitter.com/jimtankersley/status/94...src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

Corker is also now a yes but without any concessions after having voted no before.

Trump personally requested that tax exempt muni bonds for the proposed of building sports stadiums not be axed by the tax bill.

 

https://twitter.com/RichardRubinDC/status/9...src=twsrc%5Etfw

You can get pretty decent returns by just watching Coinbase, hitting on the valleys and dropping on the peaks, they come so fast.

You can get pretty decent returns by just watching Coinbase, hitting on the valleys and dropping on the peaks, they come so fast.

 

Seems like a pretty dangerous gamble with it fluctuating over 1k almost daily.

 

Edit: also transactions take like 6 days to post, so i'm not sure how this could be done anyway.

Edited December 18, 20178 yr by JenksIsMyHero

Seems like a pretty dangerous gamble with it fluctuating over 1k almost daily.

 

Edit: also transactions take like 6 days to post, so i'm not sure how this could be done anyway.

Mine didnt take 6 days to go through when I bought. Where did you see that?

 

My last trade was Ethereum on Dec 12th and it posted next dayish

Edited December 18, 20178 yr by RockRaines

Mine didnt take 6 days to go through when I bought. Where did you see that?

 

My last trade was Ethereum on Dec 12th and it posted next dayish

 

Maybe that's just for the first transaction. I've only made one purchase, but it took nearly a week to post.

Maybe that's just for the first transaction. I've only made one purchase, but it took nearly a week to post.

Are you using coinbase?

Use coinbase and fund with debit or credit. If you post from your bank account, it takes a few days.

Yeah I used my bank acct since credit cards were limited to like $250 bucks and charged a 4 or 5% fee.

They let you do 400 on credit card now and you can auto buy weekly.

I get 3k weekly, did you guys just recently join?

I get 3k weekly, did you guys just recently join?

Fairly. I jumped on a couple of weeks ago and bought some Ethereum, as I feel its a longer play.

 

Also throwing some on the blockchain companies that develop the underlying technology like RIOT and GHAC.

Edited December 19, 20178 yr by RockRaines

Fairly. I jumped on a couple of weeks ago and bought some Ethereum, as I feel its a longer play.

 

Also throwing some on the blockchain companies that develop the underlying technology like RIOT and GHAC.

 

How do you do that last part?

How do you do that last part?

Those are stocks you can buy on Fidelity or whatever you trade on. I have an old rollover that I play with. Seeing some decent returns.

I get 3k weekly, did you guys just recently join?

 

I bought some Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum a few months back but haven't added anything since.

Edited December 19, 20178 yr by JenksIsMyHero

Fairly. I jumped on a couple of weeks ago and bought some Ethereum, as I feel its a longer play.

 

Also throwing some on the blockchain companies that develop the underlying technology like RIOT and GHAC.

 

That was my thought as well. IF bitcoin tumbles, one of the other is going to take it's place, at least in terms of the next big thing. Bitcoin cash seems like a bust of an idea.

I bought some Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum a few months back but haven't added anything since.

LTC is WAY up, but I prefer Ethereum for the long play. I've got a buy on LTC if it goes back to the 200's.

 

Like many others I'm also most likely going to start looking to short BTC.

 

Also bought some PRELF today as well.

Edited December 19, 20178 yr by RockRaines

Tax Cuts For The Wealthy bill passed the House, will likely pass the Senate later tonight or early tomorrow. This is bill is deeply unpopular, with sub-30% approval ratings.

At the very least I'm glad some of the dumber pay-fors were removed.