http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writ...tart/index.html

 

Unless our offense and bullpen improves, we're going to stink again next year.

Unless our offense and bullpen improves, we're going to stink again next year.

 

That's true. But the article seems pretty well-informed overall, which is rare with national media outlets.

 

Thanks for posting.

 

Unless our offense and bullpen improves, we're going to stink again next year.

 

It would be hard for our offense to be worse in 2010 than it has been the 2nd half of 2009. Most AAA players could put up the lines that Rios and Dye have been putting up for the last couple of months. I am still very optimistic for 2010.

It would be hard for our offense to be worse in 2010 than it has been the 2nd half of 2009. Most AAA players could put up the lines that Rios and Dye have been putting up for the last couple of months. I am still very optimistic for 2010.

 

Actually it won't be hard because we have the same players here next year.

Actually it won't be hard because we have the same players here next year.

 

So you think that:

1) the Sox will resign Dye and he'll be just as bad as he's been the 2nd half,

2) that Rios will continue being so much worse than his career averages,

3) that TCQ will continue to be injury prone and reasonably unproductive,

and

4) the Sox will not bring in a single new starter / position player?

 

Or that the replacements for the above players will play as bad as this year's starters did?

 

Some of those things may happen, but all of them won't.

Actually it won't be hard because we have the same players here next year.

 

I would bet considerable money that the team looks quite a bit different, even if the core pieces are in place.

That's true. But the article seems pretty well-informed overall, which is rare with national media outlets.

 

Thanks for posting.

 

I was amazed at how even handed the article was. The good with the bad.

lets at least get past the winter meetings.

 

wow...did i really just type "winter meetings"? s***...this season really is over.

So you think that:

1) the Sox will resign Dye and he'll be just as bad as he's been the 2nd half,

2) that Rios will continue being so much worse than his career averages,

3) that TCQ will continue to be injury prone and reasonably unproductive,

and

4) the Sox will not bring in a single new starter / position player?

 

Or that the replacements for the above players will play as bad as this year's starters did?

 

Some of those things may happen, but all of them won't.

Hell, I bet if you replayed this season 10 times, this would be the worst results we got.

So you think that:

1) the Sox will resign Dye and he'll be just as bad as he's been the 2nd half,

2) that Rios will continue being so much worse than his career averages,

3) that TCQ will continue to be injury prone and reasonably unproductive,

and

4) the Sox will not bring in a single new starter / position player?

 

Or that the replacements for the above players will play as bad as this year's starters did?

 

Some of those things may happen, but all of them won't.

 

There are 7 position players coming back - Beck, Alexi, AJ, Paul, Getz, TCQ, Rios. AJ and Paulie will not be as good as they were this year. TCQ will be somewhere between 08 and 09, but it certainly is possible that he will continue to be injury prone. He has been his whole career. Rios is not good. He has always been overrated and never close to the 30/30 that was projected of him. I don't think he will be as awful as this year but he won't hit 280. Thus, the balancing of those 7 players will be close to a wash.

 

My point is if you are relying on bounce back years for these players, you are in for a huge disappointment. Anyone who says that our offense has not been horrible has not been paying attention. Anyone who thinks that it will suddenly turn around is foolish. Sitting around and waiting for guys to magically turn it around instead of recognizing that they aren't that good is a recipe for more losing. Those two new starters to bring in are going to be the key but they have to be significant offensive players for this to work. I just don't see how thats possible given the current salary structure of the team.

Rios is not good. He has always been overrated and never close to the 30/30 that was projected of him. I don't think he will be as awful as this year but he won't hit 280. Thus, the balancing of those 7 players will be close to a wash.

Rios is a career .280 hitter and has only had 2 seasons in his career where he's hit under .280: this season (.242) and his 2nd year in the bigs (.260). He hit ~.295 for a 3 year stretch from 2006-2008. Tell me again why he's not a .280 hitter?

Rios is a career .280 hitter and has only had 2 seasons in his career where he's hit under .280: this season (.242) and his 2nd year in the bigs (.260). He hit ~.295 for a 3 year stretch from 2006-2008. Tell me again why he's not a .280 hitter?

 

Because it helps his argument to say that players with good years this year (PK, AJ) will regress but those with bad years will continue to have bad years.

Because it helps his argument to say that players with good years this year (PK, AJ) will regress but those with bad years will continue to have bad years.

 

Are you saying that you are confident he will hit 280 next year and that you would be happy going into next season with the same offensive players?

This is going to be a fun offseason for Hot Stove fans. If I was KW I would get rid of alot of people and bring in some new blood.

Are you saying that you are confident he will hit 280 next year and that you would be happy going into next season with the same offensive players?

It's more likely that a 28-29 year old player will hit close to his career average than hit .040 or .050 points below.

There are 7 position players coming back - Beck, Alexi, AJ, Paul, Getz, TCQ, Rios. AJ and Paulie will not be as good as they were this year. TCQ will be somewhere between 08 and 09, but it certainly is possible that he will continue to be injury prone. He has been his whole career. Rios is not good. He has always been overrated and never close to the 30/30 that was projected of him. I don't think he will be as awful as this year but he won't hit 280. Thus, the balancing of those 7 players will be close to a wash.

 

My point is if you are relying on bounce back years for these players, you are in for a huge disappointment. Anyone who says that our offense has not been horrible has not been paying attention. Anyone who thinks that it will suddenly turn around is foolish. Sitting around and waiting for guys to magically turn it around instead of recognizing that they aren't that good is a recipe for more losing. Those two new starters to bring in are going to be the key but they have to be significant offensive players for this to work. I just don't see how thats possible given the current salary structure of the team.

 

The only two players who we could reasonably expect a "bounce-back" year from are Rios (see posts above mine for that argument) and TCQ (who you even admit should be between his excellent 2008 and disappointing 2009). The Sox will almost certainly add someone better than what Dye has put up in the 2nd half, it would be pretty difficult to find a worse hitter than 2nd half Dye. Then there are young players that *could* improve like Beckham, Alexei, and Getz. I agree with you that AJ and Paulie will be hard pressed to repeat their 2009 seasons.

 

As Balta said above, the offense, specifically in the 2nd half, is so awful given this level of talent, it would be hard to repeat if we just played the season over.

 

With all that, how does the offense end up worse? It is literally almost impossible even with 7 regulars coming back.

The only two players who we could reasonably expect a "bounce-back" year from are Rios (see posts above mine for that argument) and TCQ (who you even admit should be between his excellent 2008 and disappointing 2009). The Sox will almost certainly add someone better than what Dye has put up in the 2nd half, it would be pretty difficult to find a worse hitter than 2nd half Dye. Then there are young players that *could* improve like Beckham, Alexei, and Getz. I agree with you that AJ and Paulie will be hard pressed to repeat their 2009 seasons.

 

As Balta said above, the offense, specifically in the 2nd half, is so awful given this level of talent, it would be hard to repeat if we just played the season over.

 

With all that, how does the offense end up worse? It is literally almost impossible even with 7 regulars coming back.

 

I didn't mean to say they would be worse, thats pretty much impossible. I just don't think they will be significantly better, not enough to warrant a division title or world series contender. I think Alexei is what he is now, I dont see him improving. Beckham should get better. Individually they may look talented, but together it just isn't working. They are terrible situational hitters, whereas teams like the Twins seems to be very good at getting runners home. The two new players they bring in need to be impact players to improve this offense to a contending level.

Are you saying that you are confident he will hit 280 next year and that you would be happy going into next season with the same offensive players?

No, because we need a RF and a DH. If the DH was Thome, I wouldn't complain. Other than that...yes, I'd be somewhat happy going in to next season with the same IF, LF, CF, and starting C.

I didn't mean to say they would be worse, thats pretty much impossible. I just don't think they will be significantly better, not enough to warrant a division title or world series contender. I think Alexei is what he is now, I dont see him improving. Beckham should get better. Individually they may look talented, but together it just isn't working. They are terrible situational hitters, whereas teams like the Twins seems to be very good at getting runners home. The two new players they bring in need to be impact players to improve this offense to a contending level.

 

The starting pitching alone is enough to warrent talk about winning this division. It is far superior to anything that the rest of the division is going to throw out there. If we square the defense and fundamentals up, this team can, and will, compete again.

I didn't mean to say they would be worse, thats pretty much impossible. I just don't think they will be significantly better, not enough to warrant a division title or world series contender.

 

Aside from the fact that (barring injury) Rios and Quentin will be much better next year, keep in mind that the Sox were pretty mediocre offensively in 2005. They hit a lot of homers, but their team OBP was terrible. There's also no reason to believe that the AL Central will be that much better next season. With Peavy and Garcia replacing Contreras and Colon in the rotation, they have a legitimate shot.

 

Aside from the fact that (barring injury) Rios and Quentin will be much better next year, keep in mind that the Sox were pretty mediocre offensively in 2005. They hit a lot of homers, but their team OBP was terrible. There's also no reason to believe that the AL Central will be that much better next season. With Peavy and Garcia replacing Contreras and Colon in the rotation, they have a legitimate shot.

I'd think there's a good shot that the Twins will be better next year, assuming Morneau comes back and Mauer doesn't start the season on teh DL. Their pitching staff under-performed this year, and how often does that happen to the Twins?

I'd think there's a good shot that the Twins will be better next year, assuming Morneau comes back and Mauer doesn't start the season on teh DL. Their pitching staff under-performed this year, and how often does that happen to the Twins?

 

Then again, even though he missed time, this has to be career year(ish) for Mauer.

Then again, even though he missed time, this has to be career year(ish) for Mauer.

True and no clue how they will play in the new park. I expect the Twins to be the favorite though, they always seem to be there and play very well fundamentally. I think the Tigers will be worse. The division is there for the taking, we just need to make some moves to take advantage of it and not sit on our hands.

Then again, even though he missed time, this has to be career year(ish) for Mauer.

 

And Mauer still managed to play 135 games. Maybe I'm in a minority, but I don't see their starting pitching being all that next year. Baker's good and I like Blackburn to steadily improve, but Liriano's gotten progressively worse over the past few years and nobody else in their rotation impresses me that much.

 

The Twins might get a little better next year, but I still have a difficult time seeing them winning more than 87 or so games without some major off-season acquisitions.

 

Edited September 22, 200916 yr by WCSox