NL takes home field advantage in the World Series

[NorthSideSox72]

Thornton's been off ever since that elbow issue he had. That's part of the reason why I didn't want to see him pitch in last night's game.

 

Let's take a look at these numbers.

 

Thornton's April: 0.8 FIP, 1.85 xFIP, 25% LD Rate, 37.5% FB Rate, 13.89 K/9, 69% strikes

Thornton's May: 1.39 FIP, 2.25 xFIP, 10% LD Rate, 35% FB Rate, 11.45 K/9, 68% strikes

Thornton's June: 3.61 FIP, 3.13 xFIP, 34.6% LD Rate, 23.1 FB Rate, 11.7 K/9, 63% strikes

Thornton's July: 1.86 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, 36.4% LD Rate, 45.5% FB Rate, 9K/9, 72% strikes

 

I see a very, very scary trend going here. The high FIP was due to that one outing against Detroit, mainly. But it's clear that ever since June, he's not been the same pitcher. He went from a 1 FIP/2 xFIP pitcher to a 3 FIP and 3 xFIP pitcher, that's a huge difference. One states dominance, the other just states that he's good.

 

However, the issue is in the line drive rate and his K/9. Look at the increase LD% took in June and July. I think we've seen lots of this. Balls have been hit hard off Matt, but usually, they're right at people. This is simply a scary trend, because your luck can only run for so long. He's also starting to miss bats less, his K rate in July is only 9 Ks per 9, down from his dominant 14K/9 early on in the year. Plus, go look at his strike%. It's up in July, but we're only half-way through, but we obviously saw a big dip in June.

 

I'm not too optimistic about what's to come for Thornton, he needs rest, he needs to regain that dominance he had earlier in the year. If these trends that I put up continue, Thornton might end up with some very bad outings in the future in some big games. We don't want that.

He doesn't need rest. He's been Easy 97 all along, and his mechanics haven't changed either. What he needs is to throw his slider more than 5% of the time, and to get some pinpoint back in his control, which I think will happen with time. I'm not worried.

 

[Pants Rowland]

I'm a fan of a lot of Joe Posnanski's work, but he wasn't happy with Thornton in the game last night:

 

Good stuff and pretty much how I felt about Thornton being on the team to begin with. As a White Sox fan, I was happy for Matt, but as an AL fan, I scratched my head at Girardi's "genius" in selecting him. To me he over managed with the selection and over managed bringing him into the game. Girardi also used up his bench early and showed that he is not quite the top notch manager that his world series ring might suggest. I hope the Cubs get him for next year.

[chw42]

He doesn't need rest. He's been Easy 97 all along, and his mechanics haven't changed either. What he needs is to throw his slider more than 5% of the time, and to get some pinpoint back in his control, which I think will happen with time. I'm not worried.

 

The lack of control is most likely due to a change in his mechanics. If I'm not mistaken, he's changed his throwing slot a little bit.

[NorthSideSox72]

The lack of control is most likely due to a change in his mechanics. If I'm not mistaken, he's changed his throwing slot a little bit.

Not that I've seen, but that doesn't mean you're wrong, maybe its just too subtle and I haven't noticed. I've in fact marveled over the years at how precise and consistent he has been, mechanically, over the years. And how easy his motion seems for a guy throwing 97.

 

I think if his mechanics have changed in any significant way, you'd see one or more of his velocity, angle of attack on pitch, or movement change. And I haven't seen any of that so far this year. Looks to me like its just a combination of him slumping a bit, leaving pitches up, and not throwing the breaking ball enough. Also, he seems lately to use too many give-up pitches in pitcher's counts, going WAY high to try to get a nibble, or WAY low, when no one will bite on those.

 

Just my take.

 

 

[chw42]

Not that I've seen, but that doesn't mean you're wrong, maybe its just too subtle and I haven't noticed. I've in fact marveled over the years at how precise and consistent he has been, mechanically, over the years. And how easy his motion seems for a guy throwing 97.

 

I think if his mechanics have changed in any significant way, you'd see one or more of his velocity, angle of attack on pitch, or movement change. And I haven't seen any of that so far this year. Looks to me like its just a combination of him slumping a bit, leaving pitches up, and not throwing the breaking ball enough. Also, he seems lately to use too many give-up pitches in pitcher's counts, going WAY high to try to get a nibble, or WAY low, when no one will bite on those.

 

Just my take.

 

Thornton's fastball release points since that game against the Tigers.

 

Thornton's fastball release points during first month before elbow issue.

 

His current release point is lower and more erratic in the horizontal direction. The older release point was more consistent on a horizontal basis, but had more of a variation in height. I'm not a pitching expert or a pitch f/x expert by any means, but there definitely is a difference in the release point. And since he has been worse and worse looking since his arm issues, it can only mean that he's changing this to compensate for something. Thornton's not getting any younger, he's reaching his mid 30s. I think we're at the point where health could be an issue.

 

 

[greg775]

I love the criticism of Girardi on here. It backs my point that in any loss, the losing fans can point to a lot of things the manager supposedly did wrong.

What if the AL rallies in the ninth? If Ortiz makes it to the base a second quicker and they get more on base and ARod hits a pinch homer to win it?

Then fans and media are saying it's the best all star game ever and Girardi is a god.

 

Not criticizing anybody, just again saying after every Sox loss you can (and many usually do) blame Oz just as everybody's blaming Girardi after last night's loss, which is like a Sox loss since we are AL fans.

Edited July 14, 2010 by greg775

[chw42]

I love the criticism of Girardi on here. It backs my point that in any loss, the losing fans can point to a lot of things the manager supposedly did wrong.

What if the AL rallies in the ninth? If Ortiz makes it to the base a second quicker and they get more on base and ARod hits a pinch homer to win it?

Then fans and media are saying it's the best all star game ever and Girardi is a god.

 

Not criticizing anybody, just again saying after every Sox loss you can (and many usually do) blame Oz just as everybody's blaming Girardi after last night's loss, which is like a Sox loss since we are AL fans.

 

The criticism should come from the perspective of the game itself. By the time it was the 9th, there's really nobody left on the bench to pinch run for Ortiz. I'm pretty sure just about any base runner other than David Ortiz makes it to second. I don't know if that's technically on the manager, it's more on the crappy system of the all-star game.

[NorthSideSox72]

Thornton's fastball release points since that game against the Tigers.

 

Thornton's fastball release points during first month before elbow issue.

 

His current release point is lower and more erratic in the horizontal direction. The older release point was more consistent on a horizontal basis, but had more of a variation in height. I'm not a pitching expert or a pitch f/x expert by any means, but there definitely is a difference in the release point. And since he has been worse and worse looking since his arm issues, it can only mean that he's changing this to compensate for something. Thornton's not getting any younger, he's reaching his mid 30s. I think we're at the point where health could be an issue.

What you are saying about his health and age is possible, but I think unlikely. I don't see a statistically significant variance in those diagrams. But I guess we'll see.

 

[Balta1701]

What you are saying about his health and age is possible, but I think unlikely. I don't see a statistically significant variance in those diagrams. But I guess we'll see.

A contour plot would help, but I think there certainly appears to be 2 different populations there to me.

[LittleHurt05]

I was b****ing about Ortiz not being pinch-run for after the game, but in hindsight, keeping him in the game was the right move. The AL was down two. Ortiz's run was not the important one. You save your pinch runner for the tying run. Yeah, a fluke play happened and Ortiz was called out when a faster runner would have been safe, but in normal situations you don't pinch run for him. If Byrd doesnt make that throw, you have runners at 1st & 2nd, then you pinch run for Buck to make sure that the tying run can score an a gapper. Whether or not they had the personnel to do that is another discussion for another day.

 

 

[chw42]

What you are saying about his health and age is possible, but I think unlikely. I don't see a statistically significant variance in those diagrams. But I guess we'll see.

 

The current release point is less consistent, more erratic, at least that's what I see. It has a much wider range in the horizontal direction, which could very well affect location. Plus, this almost validates what I said about his arm slot changing, it's more 3/4 now , whereas it was more overhead before.

[NorthSideSox72]

A contour plot would help, but I think there certainly appears to be 2 different populations there to me.

The center points of the splats look to me like they are identical within an inch in either dimension. But the vertical is more interesting to me than the horizontal anyway. Horizontal could be effected by location of his body on the rubber, yes?

 

If the center points are within an inch in either dimension, I personally don't see a strong likelihood that it is the sign of some significant problem. Hell, for that matter, what is the accuracy of the Pitch F/X for this anyway? It might be an inch itself, in which case this means nothing.

 

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

The current release point is less consistent, more erratic, at least that's what I see. It has a much wider range in the horizontal direction, which could very well affect location. Plus, this almost validates what I said about his arm slot changing, it's more 3/4 now , whereas it was more overhead before.

I don't see a validation. The vertical change is under an inch I think (can't tell for sure), probably well under, so I see nothing there. Horizontal, without a vertical change, tells me its variance not caused by arm slot - could be body location, or a change in the way the rest of his upper body is oriented to his lower body on release.

 

Could that theoretically be a sign of injury or fatigue? Yes, but I think its unlikely, given the lack of significance of the change.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Hell, for that matter, what is the accuracy of the Pitch F/X for this anyway? It might be an inch itself, in which case this means nothing.

Well, the issue here is that there would have to have been a systematic change in PF/X between the 2 populations with the change correlating approximately with the time that Thornton's injury cropped up and his performance suffered, which I think is less likely.

[NorthSideSox72]

Well, the issue here is that there would have to have been a systematic change in PF/X between the 2 populations with the change correlating approximately with the time that Thornton's injury cropped up and his performance suffered, which I think is less likely.

I think that, given its the horizontal spread that has the larger change (though still quite small), without a corresponding vertical change (if it was truly arm slot, you should see variance in BOTH), I really think that if the change is even statistically or systematically significant (which I am not sure of), that its something NOT arm slot. Its somewhere else in his body, or its location on the rubber.

 

[chw42]

Some more graphs.

 

Current top view pitch trajectory

 

Older top view

 

Current Side view

 

Previous Side view

 

Strike zone plot since Tigers game

 

Strike zone from first month.

Edited July 14, 2010 by chw42

[chw42]

I see some small differences in the release point hight, maybe a couple of inches at most. There's also a difference in the release point from the top view, also by a couple of inches. His strike zone from the last month looks like he's not elevating the high fastball enough, he also appears to have a lot more very inside pitches.

 

Like I said, I'm not an expert at pitch f/x, but I see differences.

[BigSqwert]

I see some small differences in the release point hight, maybe a couple of inches at most. There's also a difference in the release point from the top view, also by a couple of inches. His strike zone from the last month looks like he's not elevating the high fastball enough, he also appears to have a lot more very inside pitches.

 

Like I said, I'm not an expert at pitch f/x, but I see differences.

You must be half Ukrainian and half bald eagle.

[chw42]

You must be half Ukrainian and half bald eagle.

 

I'm also very good at those Spot the Difference games.

[NorthSideSox72]

I see some small differences in the release point hight, maybe a couple of inches at most. There's also a difference in the release point from the top view, also by a couple of inches. His strike zone from the last month looks like he's not elevating the high fastball enough, he also appears to have a lot more very inside pitches.

 

Like I said, I'm not an expert at pitch f/x, but I see differences.

The ones that interest me the most now, are those strike zone plot graphs. He's maybe more up, but really, he's just more off. Kind of goes to what I said earlier, when he gets ahead in the count and tries for a pitch for them to go fishing, he misses by a lot more. That to me, is more likely mental than physical.

 

[Balta1701]

The ones that interest me the most now, are those strike zone plot graphs. He's maybe more up, but really, he's just more off. Kind of goes to what I said earlier, when he gets ahead in the count and tries for a pitch for them to go fishing, he misses by a lot more. That to me, is more likely mental than physical.

He was definitely more "up" last night.

[chw42]

I don't think it's nibbling. These hitters usually can't catch up to the fastball. He gets ahead by these guys either taking or fouling his fastball off. But then, he can't finish these guys off since his location isn't as good and they just keep fouling his pitches off by extending the at bat. For a guy who throws nothing but fastballs, that's not a good thing. The more they see of his fastball, the easier it is for them to pick one and hit it.

 

[Balta1701]

I don't think it's nibbling. These hitters usually can't catch up to the fastball. He gets ahead by these guys either taking or fouling his fastball off. But then, he can't finish these guys off since his location isn't as good and they just keep fouling his pitches off by extending the at bat. For a guy who throws nothing but fastballs, that's not a good thing. The more they see of his fastball, the easier it is for them to pick one and hit it.

It's not just picking one up, it's getting one in the location they're looking for. That's what happened with McCann last night.

[chw42]

That ball was in the a left handed hitter's wheelhouse.

[elgonzo4sox]

I was b****ing about Ortiz not being pinch-run for after the game, but in hindsight, keeping him in the game was the right move. The AL was down two. Ortiz's run was not the important one. You save your pinch runner for the tying run. Yeah, a fluke play happened and Ortiz was called out when a faster runner would have been safe, but in normal situations you don't pinch run for him. If Byrd doesnt make that throw, you have runners at 1st & 2nd, then you pinch run for Buck to make sure that the tying run can score an a gapper. Whether or not they had the personnel to do that is another discussion for another day.

 

But in order for the tying run to score, Ortiz has to make it to home first. He was clogging up the bases - this was the most blatant example possible - putting Rickey Henderson as the tying run pinch runner behind Ortiz isn't going to help. Ortiz not only couldn't go from 1st to 3rd on a single to the outfield, he couldn't even go from first to second. This is the sort of thing that drives Ozzie nuts, and the primary reason Thome isn't on the roster this year.

 

So yes, Girardi should have had a pinch runner ready knowing that Ortiz was coming up in the ninth.

 

That inning illustrated the difference between Ozzieball, and Titoball (the Red Sox get a full season of watching Ortiz clog the bases) and Girardiball (depleting almost the entire bench by the ninth, and not being in a position to play for the 2 or 3 runs needed to tie or win).