I don't think he gets to 500.

That sorta misses the point of the thread.

I don't think he gets to 500.

 

Even if he did, I don't think that it's a magic number that will automatically get him in. There's still a good chance that he'd be in Jeff Bagwell territory at the end of his career.

 

That sorta misses the point of the thread.

Just saying it'll be a moot point since that's his only hope for a glimmer of a chance.

Just saying it'll be a moot point since that's his only hope for a glimmer of a chance.

"Debate topic: if unlikely event x happens, do you think correlated event y will happen or not?"

 

"X won't happen so I'm going to remind everyone that it's unlikely."

Good discussion everyone. One of the better threads we've had here in awhile.

"Debate topic: if unlikely event x happens, do you think correlated event y will happen or not?"

 

"X won't happen so I'm going to remind everyone that it's unlikely."

Leave your algebra to the math thread.

"Debate topic: if unlikely event x happens, do you think correlated event y will happen or not?"

 

"X won't happen so I'm going to remind everyone that it's unlikely."

 

If Brent Lillibridge hits 500 career home runs, do you think he will make the HOF?

Leave your algebra to the math thread.

 

A math thread? Damn can we just go back to every other thread being about firing people?

And I'm betting there will be plenty of writers who vote deliberately/spitefully against Sheffield despite his having over 500 homers.

 

I don't think it's the magic number it used to be. Once upon a time, Dale Murphy was thought to be a lock, but things have changed. Bagwell ended up fairly close and there's no way he makes it now.

 

 

Konerko kind of falls into that Bert Blyleven category IF IF IF he can put up 500+ homers. Bert never won a Cy Young (I think a 2nd and 3rd in his best seasons?) but the long-term consistency is what did it, but it took nearly 20 years to convince the voters. However, he was known for having one of the best pitches in the game, the curveball. Paulie played on the second tier team and was in the shadow of Sosa/Frank Thomas for most of his younger years, then Magglio/C-Lee. If it wasn't for 2005, very few baseball fans, except for the hardcore ones and scouts, would be talking about him.

 

I do agree with the Todd Helton comparison, although you have to throw out/correct for a lot of Helton's numbers because of Coors Field, at least perception wise.

 

Granted, it's probably just as easy to hit homers and doubles at USCF, but I think a player coming from COL has an even higher numerical standard/benchmark to climb because of that field.

Edited May 9, 201114 yr by caulfield12

I don't think he gets to 500.

 

To me a more interesting question is does he pass Frank as the all-time Sox homer leader?

If Brent Lillibridge hits 500 career home runs, do you think he will make the HOF?

 

 

Or Gordon Beckham?

To me a more interesting question is does he pass Frank as the all-time Sox homer leader?

 

Or who ends up with more career homeruns... Konerko or Dunn?

 

If Brent Lillibridge hits 500 career home runs, do you think he will make the HOF?

Yes, because at his age, it would take him suddenly becoming a 40+ HR a year player for a decade, which would put him as one of the best players in baseball for several years.

 

See, considered the hypothetical.

To me a more interesting question is does he pass Frank as the all-time Sox homer leader?

If he stays healthy, yes I think he will.

I'm about 40% yes on passing Frank and about 10% on 500 homers.

Or who ends up with more career homeruns... Konerko or Dunn?

If Dunn averages 36+ HR/year over this contract, he gets to 500.

Good discussion everyone. One of the better threads we've had here in awhile.

 

This is a good discussion. If he were to get to 500 home runs it'll be interesting to see what happens. Right now I'd put in in the Buehrle route. Definitely a White Sox Hall of Famer and should get his number retired. But I think he has a better shot than Buehrle at making the Hall of Fame. Not that it matters much but PK has 4 All-Star appearances and an ALCS MVP!!!!!! What a great trade it was to get Konerko for Cameron.

 

Konerko 1854 hits, 366 homers, 1154 RBI's, .283 BA., .359 OBP, .505 SLG.

 

I'm not going to figure out Cameron's stats, but I would've never thought Konerko would be here this long and contribute this much.

This is a good discussion. If he were to get to 500 home runs it'll be interesting to see what happens. Right now I'd put in in the Buehrle route. Definitely a White Sox Hall of Famer and should get his number retired. But I think he has a better shot than Buehrle at making the Hall of Fame. Not that it matters much but PK has 4 All-Star appearances and an ALCS MVP!!!!!! What a great trade it was to get Konerko for Cameron.

 

Konerko 1854 hits, 366 homers, 1154 RBI's, .283 BA., .359 OBP, .505 SLG.

 

I'm not going to figure out Cameron's stats, but I would've never thought Konerko would be here this long and contribute this much.

That's because Mark has zero chance.

That's because Mark has zero chance.

Let me put it this way...M-56 getting to 300 wins would make him a much more sure thing than Konerko getting to 500 HR.

Or who ends up with more career homeruns... Konerko or Dunn?

 

 

Dunn only has 16 less homers and is 4 years younger. As long he finally breaks out of this slump, he should easily finish with more.

Yes, because at his age, it would take him suddenly becoming a 40+ HR a year player for a decade, which would put him as one of the best players in baseball for several years.

 

See, considered the hypothetical.

 

Well played.

Let me put it this way...M-56 getting to 300 wins would make him a much more sure thing than Konerko getting to 500 HR.

 

And the odds of that happening are much, much less.

And the odds of that happening are much, much less.

I'd reply that they're only less because I don't think M-56 wants to try for it.

I'd reply that they're only less because I don't think M-56 wants to try for it.

 

Even if you assume Mark tried to pitch until his 40's, his career arc isn't looking as pretty.

If Dunn averages 36+ HR/year over this contract, he gets to 500.

 

There's a question for you, if Dunn gets to 500, is he in the HOF? He's one of the best power hitters of the era, but that's all he was good at. Career average of .250, bad defender, gonna be a DH the next few seasons. He has never been in the playoffs, has never even finished top 20 in MVP voting. But he will hit that 500 homer mark and he's never been directly accused of PEDs.