Adam Dunn: The Least Exciting Player Ever

[LittleHurt05]

Here's an interesting Joe Posnanski column to entertain you on this off day.

 

The Least Exciting Player Ever

You could argue — what the heck I will argue — that Adam Dunn in 2011 is the single least enjoyable player to watch in baseball history. He still has a half season to go and in that half season he could turn things around, whack a few home runs, lead the White Sox on a bit of a charge, it’s not impossible, not even wildly improbable. He’s hit 38-plus homers every single year since 2004. But watching him the first half season has been so dreary, so depressing, that after seeing him play a couple of games in a row I feel like I need a shot of Vitamin D or a vacation to someplace sunny.

 

Why is baseball fun to watch? There are many answers — different ones for different people. The connection to the past. The battle of pitcher and hitter. The geometry of the field and the way fielders try to cover it. The tense moments. On and on. But at its core, for me at least, the fun of baseball comes down to the connection of ball and bat. That is where so much of the action begins. That’s what leads to triples, double plays, diving catches, plays at the plate, long home runs. Bat meets ball leads to motion, leads to action, leads to heroics and mistakes and cans of corn. Sure, there is excitement found in other places — in the fastball that brushes the outside corner, the curveball that buckles the knees, the big swing and miss. Sure, there is fun in the cat-and-mouse game between pitcher, catcher and a great base runner and in the well-earned walk. But, for the most part, the game needs a trigger. And the trigger is ball hitting bat.

 

 

Adam Dunn, at the moment, is striking out 35.8% of the time he comes to the plate. If he sustains that — I don’t think he will, but if he does — that would set the record for highest percentage of strikeouts per plate appearance. Mark Reynolds last year struck out 35.4% of the time, which is currently the highest percentage for a player with enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title. Reynolds struck out 33.7% of the time in 2009, which is the second-highest percentage. Dave Nicholson had a most remarkable season in 1963, when the strikeout was much rarer. He whiffed 175 times in 126 games … he was the first player to ever strike out one out of every three times he came to the plate.

 

The list of highest strikeout percentages in baseball history:

 

1. Adam Dunn, 2011, 35.8%

2. Mark Reynolds, 2010, 35.4%

3. Mark Reynolds, 2009, 33.7%

4. Dave Nicholson, 1963. 33.7%

5. Mark Reynolds, 2008, 33.3%

6. Jackkk Cust, 2008, 32.9%

7. Rob Deer, 1987, 32.9%

8. Rob Deer, 1986, 32.8%

9. Rob Deer, 1991, 32.5%

10. Benji Gil, 1995, 32.4%

 

I should say here that high hitter strikeout totals (even while strikeouts are almost always valueless outs) do not bother me much. I think Mark Reynolds had a very good year in 2009, when he set the big league record with 223 strikeouts. Even with all those whiffs, he had a better-than-average on-base percentage of .349. And he crushed 30 doubles and 44 home runs — the guy slugged .543. The legendary Rob Deer had more than one good offensive year despite the strikeouts. Jackkk Cust walked 111 times and hit 33 homers in 2008, and overall that was a quite valuable offensive season. The truth is that it’s more often the LOW strikeout guys — Yuni Betancourt, Yadi Molina, Cesar Isturis, Chris Getz and Alberto Callaspo among others have a knack for putting the ball in play — who end up killing the offense.

 

But I’m not talking about winning and losing here. I’m not talking about value. I’m talking about excitement. And that’s something different. I’ve often written that Bobby Abreu is the MBGPIBH — Most Boring Good Player In Baseball History. I have immense respect for what he has accomplished as a player, what he continues to accomplish. The guy has a lifetime .400 on-base percentage (and a .400 on-base percentage this year). He’s had two 30-30 seasons. He’s won a Gold Glove, and he really seemed to be an excellent fielder in his younger days. He has scored and driven in 100 five times. I’m assuming he has 21 more home runs in him (though his power had dwindled to almost nothing) and that will make him only the eighth member of the 300 homer, 300 stolen base club. I don’t want to get into it here because this post is already drifting, but it seems every couple of weeks I have a discussion with a friend about Abreu’s Hall of Fame case. I think he’s making a case. I also think he’s headed for the Hall of Not Famous Enough.

 

Abreu, though, is an agonizing player to watch, at least for me. His at-bats feel like audits. They just go on and on, an endless stream of near strikes called for balls, good pitches spoiled, swings and misses, more near pitches called for balls — he’s doing exactly what he SHOULD be doing. Abreu controls the batter’s box as few ever have. He is an artist at the plate, but an artist in the way that a good auto mechanic is an artist. I admire what he does. I appreciate the value of it. But I wish they would give me a magazine or something to read while he does it.

 

And that’s the point here: I’ll have a post coming about the most exciting players in baseball. But who is the LEAST exciting player? I don’t think there’s any question about it.

 

Adam Dunn has always been the kind of player who does not put the ball in play much. Thirty-four players in baseball history have qualified for batting titles and put the ball in play 60% or less of the time. Adam Dunn has done that NINE times. He has long been what is now called a three-outcome hitter — strikeouts, walks and home runs. Those three things have made up a little more than 49% of his plate appearances, which, yes, is the highest percentage in baseball history. Another little chart:

 

Highest percentage three-outcome players (min. 6,000 PAs):

1. Adam Dunn, 49.2%

2. Jim Thome, 47.5%

3. Mark McGwire, 45.6%

4. Pat Burrell, 42.7%

5. Jose Canseco, 40.7%

6. Mickey Mantle, 40.2%

7. Troy Glaus, 40.1%

8. Reggie Jackson, 39.7%

9. Darryl Strawberry, 39.6%

10. Eric Davis, 39.4%

 

That list, as you can see, is loaded with thrilling players to watch. I mean, Mickey Mantle, Eric Davis, Reggie Jackson, Darryl Strawberry in his prime, these are some of the most exciting players in baseball history. Mark McGwire in 1998, no matter what you may think of it now, was magical at the time. The reason they were fun to watch, of course, was that third outcome. You know the football coach line about how three things can happen when you throw the ball and two are bad. The good thing — the complete pass — makes it worthwhile. And so it goes with that third outcome, the home run. For years and years, I think, Adam Dunn was an exciting player to watch, exciting because when he hit the ball, he hit it SO BLEEPIN’ HARD. That third outcome made the whole thing work. The strikeouts are more exciting when the pitcher is trying to avoid having the batter smack a 485-foot homer. The walks are more exciting too.

 

But Dunn isn’t crushing baseballs now. He’s not even hitting them. His batting average is .173 — the lowest full-season batting average in the last 75 years is Rob Deer’s .179 in 1991.* Dunn pops up to the infield more often than he homers. And with that third outcome missing, watching him is torturous. It isn’t just that the thrill of the home runs is gone.The strikeouts, which used to seem dramatic and mere side effects for the 40 home runs he hit every year, now seem pointless and inevitable. The walks seems kind of pathetic. Everything about an Adam Dunn at-bat these days feels like trauma. That horrifying scene in Swingers where Favreau keeps calling back the girl he met in the bar? Yeah, every Adam Dunn at bat feels like that.

 

*It should be noted that Dan Uggla is hitting .177 at the moment and is making his own run at history.

 

Dunn, of course, doesn’t offer much of anything else besides for what he does at the plate. This makes it worse. He is a DH who occasionally plays the field but probably shouldn’t (he was a legendarily bad defender even in his younger days). He can’t run (Dunn has gone first-to-third on a single exactly ZERO times this year). I think many of the least exciting players in baseball history have been these sorts of players — home run hitters who stopped hitting home runs. Watching Rob Deer at the end of his career was misery. Watching Greg Luzinski when the ball clonked off his bat was sad. Jack Clark’s last year in Boston was agony. But right now Adam Dunn’s got them all beat. He strikes out more. He doesn’t put the ball in play much. And his power has waned. Dunn doesn’t turn 32 until November, but he seems a lot older. And every at-bat feels like a Shakespearean tragedy. White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said to the Chicago Tribune: “I wish I could be in his brain to see what he’s thinking.” I prefer Shakespeare: Things without all remedy should be without regard; What’s Dunn is Dunn.

[maggsmaggs]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/d...-stop-stinking/

 

Another article on him. I presume the difference in Pos' and Fangraphs' k-rates are one is using PAs and one is using ABs?

[Kyyle23]

Posnanski should really read through our hyperbole thread before writing these articles.....

 

[caulfield12]

Or Beckham, since has the "Most Interesting Man in the World" cut-out in the clubhouse to pose with the Sox individual game MVP's.

 

 

[elrockinMT]

No doubt about that Dunn s been nothing short of abysmal this season-so far. I wonder what happens when we head to Denver? My feeling is he should sit and get his head on straight, but I bet he plays at 1B and maybe in the OF. I am just keeping hope alive that he can turn things around after the All-Star break. It is hard to believe he k's more than Dave Nicholson did.

[Steve9347]

No doubt about that Dunn s been nothing short of abysmal this season-so far. I wonder what happens when we head to Denver? My feeling is he should sit and get his head on straight, but I bet he plays at 1B and maybe in the OF. I am just keeping hope alive that he can turn things around after the All-Star break. It is hard to believe he k's more than Dave Nicholson did.

They should DL Dunn with a phantom injury and let him get his head together in AAA, thus allowing Viciedo to come up for the time being.

[TaylorStSox]

They should DL Dunn with a phantom injury and let him get his head together in AAA, thus allowing Viciedo to come up for the time being.

 

They could always have me drive Juan Pierre back to Mobile, Alabama so I can help him set up his retirement.

 

With Dunn, I'd seriously consider only letting him swing at a certain pitch until he gets his mind set right. He really needs to clear his head and get back to basics. See ball; Hit ball. His problems are 100% mental. His pitch recognition still seems to be good as he's still drawing an above average amount of walks. He just isn't driving the ball. Even the his near HR the other day wasn't really hit hard as far as Adam Dunn standards go.

[The Ginger Kid]

I thought it was interesting when Pierre suggested that he didn't think the team was being vocal enough in its support of Dunn. If that dude is feeling on on island I assure you it was of his own making. Bragging about not picking up a bat all off-season? Probably not a strong move.

[Balta1701]

I thought it was interesting when Pierre suggested that he didn't think the team was being vocal enough in its support of Dunn. If that dude is feeling on on island I assure you it was of his own making. Bragging about not picking up a bat all off-season? Probably not a strong move.

That's why the whole team hated Mark Buehrle from 2001-2007 or so as well. No one could stand that guy. I've never seen a guy hated so much by his clubhouse. If only he didn't tell them how his offseason routine was to shut down completely, maybe things would have been different.

[BigSqwert]

That's why the whole team hated Mark Buehrle from 2001-2007 or so as well. No one could stand that guy. I've never seen a guy hated so much by his clubhouse. If only he didn't tell them how his offseason routine was to shut down completely, maybe things would have been different.

I get your point but doing absolutely nothing in the offseason while playing for a new league may have hindered Dunn's effectiveness this season.

 

Instead of bragging about not picking up a bat since last season ended I would have loved to have heard him tell us how he worked extra hard this past offseason, studied film of the AL Central pitching staffs, and instituted a workout routine for the 1st time in his life.

[Balta1701]

I get your point but doing absolutely nothing in the offseason while playing for a new league may have hindered Dunn's effectiveness this season.

 

Instead of bragging about not picking up a bat since last season ended I would have loved to have heard him tell us how he worked extra hard this past offseason, studied film of the AL Central pitching staffs, and instituted a workout routine for the 1st time in his life.

Link

"But this is not my first year to do that," Dunn said. "I've probably done it [that way] since '05 or '06. It just seems to work better for me."

And so he arrived at Camelback Ranch a few days before the club's first scheduled full workout and got busy.

Speaking of shape, Dunn appeared to be in good condition; possibly a little leaner.

He never said he didn't work out in the offseason.

[BigSqwert]

It just seems to work better for me.

 

Not this year.

Edited June 27, 2011 by BigSqwert

[Balta1701]

Not this year.

On that one, we can agree.

 

If he'd done all sorts of swing work in the offseason and come out in this slump, everyone would be angry that he changed up his routine from what worked and that he'd tired himself out.

[elrockinMT]

They should DL Dunn with a phantom injury and let him get his head together in AAA, thus allowing Viciedo to come up for the time being.

 

 

That is Phil Roger's stance. I think they could use his surgery as the reason, but good lord somethings got to happen

[Steve9347]

That is Phil Roger's stance. I think they could use his surgery as the reason, but good lord somethings got to happen

Oh no, I agree with Phil Rogers? Someone shoot me.

[BigSqwert]

Maybe Paulie can arrange for Dunn to be kidnapped. He can hide him somewhere in his 16K sq ft mansion in Arizona.

[Steve9347]

Maybe Paulie can arrange for Dunn to be kidnapped. He can hide him somewhere in his 16K sq ft mansion in Arizona.

I hear it's in Scottsdale, right?

[BigSqwert]

I hear it's in Scottsdale, right?

Hmm....you may be right about that.

[southsider2k5]

I hear it's in Scottsdale, right?

 

I thought it was Paulsdale by now/

[BigSqwert]

BTW, can Dunn be exempt from the new hyperbole rule until he resembles, at the very least, a AAA ball player?

[Balta1701]

BTW, can Dunn be exempt from the new hyperbole rule until he resembles, at the very least, a AAA ball player?

If you're asking this then you don't get the point. Even if you're asking this sarcastically.

[earthshiner]

I think Dunn should bunt when he has two strikes on him. It would at least be more interesting.

[RockRaines]

I get your point but doing absolutely nothing in the offseason while playing for a new league may have hindered Dunn's effectiveness this season.

 

Instead of bragging about not picking up a bat since last season ended I would have loved to have heard him tell us how he worked extra hard this past offseason, studied film of the AL Central pitching staffs, and instituted a workout routine for the 1st time in his life.

He didnt brag about that at all. And he's had a workout routine his entire career.

[The Ginger Kid]

That's why the whole team hated Mark Buehrle from 2001-2007 or so as well. No one could stand that guy. I've never seen a guy hated so much by his clubhouse. If only he didn't tell them how his offseason routine was to shut down completely, maybe things would have been different.

If you see those two cases as the same then there's really no point in discussing it. Oh wait, you weren't trying to discuss anything anyway. I think you were trying to be clever. Sorry, missed that.

[southsider2k5]

If you see those two cases as the same then there's really no point in discussing it. Oh wait, you weren't trying to discuss anything anyway. I think you were trying to be clever. Sorry, missed that.